ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, SO GRACIOUS

FIRST RACE

TALESPIN was never a threat while rallying into 3rd last time from off the pace, though that was a race that was dominated by the top two from stalking/pressing positions; one more chance making his second start off the claim after improving his figure last time. CHAMPAGNE CHILLS was rained off to dirt two back and was disqualified after battling all the way and bumping a rival late; didn’t break sharply last time but had speed to get up with the pace on the rail and was no match as the favorite; makes his first start off the claim as a new gelding and will likely be a better price this time. FREUDIAN SIP took a step forward when dropped in class and switching from turf to dirt two back, then was no match for the winner last time while settling for second-best; factors again but wouldn’t want too short a price on her.

SECOND RACE

FIRST APPEAL ran her race over this distance three back in her first start for Cox but was facing a better field that day and settled for 3rd; has run well over this distance in the past and she was badly blocked in the stretch last time or she would have been much closer. ALABAMA BOUND also had trouble in the stretch last time, which cost her 2nd, but she was facing a weaker group that day; handles this distance and has run well in both starts for a tag. VIP NATION has more tactical speed than either of the top two and this distance may really work for her; got loose on a rated pace at this level last time but was no match for the back-in-form Bareeqa, who returned to win again.

THIRD RACE

SMILES FROM SADIE has been laid up for 149days since being claimed back in May but she ran well that day while three-wide throughout and just missing a brutal bob on the wire to a rival rallying up a gold rail late; that was her sixth straight runnerup finish on dirt, something to be concerned about, but she is tough in this field with her good race and is confidently returned in an allowance race. PAVED WITH GOLD is a maiden on dirt heading into this but she earned a figure two back at Saratoga that suggests she fits in this field; had little chance chasing Ratajkowski (returned to win again with a 90 Beyer) going longer last time. MRS. ORB has been concentrating on turf lately and broke her maiden on that surface two starts back but she has also run well on the main track in the past and has hit the board in each of her last four starts over fast dirt.

FOURTH RACE

KEEP YOUR DISTANCE has focused on turf since starting back from a short layoff in June and picked up a win two back on that surface while getting some class relief; last four main track wins have come over 5.5 furlongs in races that were rained off the turf but she has run plenty of races going longer on this surface that make her tough in here; taking her as the new face. LET ME TAKE THIS CALL found the right field last time and dominated that group after getting loose on the lead; it’s not like that race came out of nowhere, and she may be the best speed in this field, as well. PRINCESS VICTORIA was favored over LETMETAKETHISCALL last time and never threatened after driving around to the outside to the stretch; better than that and is back relatively quickly for Rudy.

FIFTH RACE

BELLSINTHEWOOD was finder her way in Ireland while working her way through some early greenness; improved two back when stretched back out and she took a tough beat last time when finishing fast down the outside to just miss. LEEWAY was taken back in a paceless race and the raced greenly in the stretch when finishing 6th in her career debut; went to Kentucky Downs last time and once again drifted in as the favorite, before racing on gamely late to prevail for 4th; seems to be learning through racing and the class relief helps, but she is likely to be a short price once again. DELETE THE TWEET had her debut rained

off and she was never involved in that race behind a blowout winner; drops right away as she looks for turf for top connections.

SIXTH RACE

SO GRACIOUS didn’t run poorly on dirt to begin her career but improved when switched to turf off the layoff to finish a solid 4th while keeping in range of the pace going short; was outrun when stretched out last time, and had no chance with an impressive winner in that spot, but she was racing on while between horses late and this distance may be perfect for her. SOLO ARTIST has been breezing right along for a trainer who has done good work on debut right from the start and who is 7 for his last 28 with first time starters overall (25%, $3.52 ROI, including four debut winners already at this meet); has some class in her pedigree being from a dam who is a half-sister to Union Rags. WAJEEHA is a well-connected filly by Medaglia d’Oro and she is from a mare who is a sister to the top turf miler Aragorn; dam has not been much of a producer thus far with her first four foals to race combining for a record of 0-16.

SEVENTH RACE

MUBARMAJ made a promising debut going short in a race he appeared to need and he improved as expected when stretched out for his second start; had good speed over the mile last time and was game to turn away favored Spice Road coming to the stretch, before getting clear with a solid 88 Beyer. DARK STORM was MTO when coming with a good late finish to break his maiden in a race originally scheduled for turf at Saratoga but he came right back with an even better effort last time to run right by the leaders at the top of the stretch and then keep the game runnerup safe to the wire; steps up at the right time while improving quickly. MOSHAHER looked good winning his debut with ease over a one-turn mile at Meydan then was clearly overmatched in stakes company in his next two starts; chased and tired sprinting off the layoff but may have been using that race as a prep for the stretch out.

EIGHTH RACE

GLORIOUS EMPIRE got good suddenly off the Schera claim back in 2017 and he really came to hand last year while winning the Grade 1 Sword Dancer, the Grade 2 Bowling Green and the Grade 2 Fort Lauderdale, before being sidelined by injury; appeared to get in a perfect prep last time when keeping after a fast pace before taking over in the stretch, and then weakening late and giving way to the closers; has speed to his inside but he is tough here if stepping up and he may be the right price in this tough field. LUCULLAN has returned from a long layoff running this year and exits a solid try in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile, where he was in contention from the top of the stretch while not quite finding enough; handles this distance and he can fall into as trip here with two speeds to his inside. CATHOLIC BOY has had trouble making it to the track this year and has already missed a couple of intended targets since finishing 2nd in the Suburban in July; he is using this as a prep but his good race clearly makes him tough in here. OLYMPICO disappointed last time but he made an eye-catching stateside debut in the Fort Marcy and didn’t run poorly at all in his next two starts; don’t want to give up on him just yet, especially if he is going to be a price.

NINTH RACE

TALENT SCOUT has improved in his two starts off the claim for this trainer and finished gamely for 3rd last time to be the only horse to make an impact from off the pace; needs the right trip but figures in this race if he can keep his momentum going. JOHNNY WISHBONE nd was a little tough to get a handle on after breaking his maiden on the drop over a sloppy track in June but he backed that effort up well when second last time with a 74 Beyer; has enough speed to get the right trip in this race from his inside draw. OUR HONOR found the right field last time and won easily at the end after briefly dueling in the stretch; owns figures that fit well in this field and is a threat to go back to back for his underrated trainer.