ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, MOO LAH

FIRST RACE

Taking a stab with NOTROUBLEATALL in the hope that blinkers might help her reach her full potential. Didn’t break great in first start at this level, found herself far back, swung very wide into the stretch and picked up some tired horses late. MAGICAL LUNA finished twelve lengths ahead of the top pick last month when slapped by the stewards. Showed big speed that day and gamely fought on despite drifting out in the stretch. Strictly the one to catch and beat. MORAVIAN PRAYER has license to improve on grass. Not only is she a half to a turf winner out of a first-turf winning dam, but she is also a half to multiple Grade 1 winner The Factor, a sneaky-good grass sire. Carrasco departs for Magical Luna. BEGUILING and MAYAS MIRACLE would prove threats if able to extricate themselves from the also-eligible list.

SECOND RACE

BAYTOWN GLORY ships in sharp seeking third consecutive score and may work out another good outside tracking trip from this post. Failed to change leads in the stretch, but wore down a horse that came back to win with a 63 Beyer (Camp Counselor has now won three out of his last four). ZITARROSA drops with big speed, a potent combination to be sure, but stamina has proven to be somewhat of an issue in his last few starts. Think he’s the speed of the speed, but might have to deal with Flat Out Mine and HIGHER PURPOSE early. The latter lost all chance last time when bobbling at the break and being boxed in behind horses on the backstretch. Found an opening turning for home and just missed while racing on his left lead

THIRD RACE

Been chasing NANA’S SHOES for a bit now after she finished evenly after a four-wide bid in that “starter/optional” three starts back. Bested by the two chalks when dropped to this level on August 15, she steadied in between horses and had to alter down inside most recently. Must overcome a lack of pace up front and McCarthy lands on Holiday Prayer. LET’S GO BABY saved ground in midpack, came four wide on the turn and only finished up evenly when the beaten favorite last month. Addition of cheekpieces might help her focus a bit. WITCH has the important tactical speed to get forward and she ran well last time behind Jabuticaba, a filly that returned to win with an 80 Beyer before finishing second in a stakes race at Parx with a 79. HOLIDAY PRAYER, like the top pick, doesn’t have much in the way of gate speed. Swung very wide last time at Delaware and was gaining on the odds-on winner. CLOCKSTRIKES TWELVE and HIGH SIERRA are logical players if they get in from the also-eligible list.

FOURTH RACE

CHICK’S SHADOW showed good speed in turf and career debut at Colonial, then shot up the inside to defeat three next-out winners. It was a good trip, to be sure, but she is bred to handle two turns (the dam was stakes-placed at 1 1/16 miles) and seems to have enough tactical speed to grab a spot in the second flight. DUNIVERSE chased promising Dixie Cannon (next-out 58-Beyer winner here) at Delaware, then returned to drub maidens going two turns on the main track. Still seems a bit green, but can work out a nice trip from the inside post. VALLE LUNA was unsettled behind the starting gate last time, but came with a strong run to just miss and be placed first via disqualification. The winner of that race will likely go favored in today’s opener.

FIFTH RACE

MIDSHIP LADY pulled hard in the early stages of the Selima, then had nothing left when odds-on winner Sharing came calling at the quarter pole. Cuts back to the distance of her first two starts,

both useful efforts versus maidens. LIGHT IN THE

SKY is the obvious danger as she looked very good knocking off two next-out winners (thirdfinisher My Sassy Sarah returned to graduate with a 78 Beyer). Maneuvered off the rail on the backstretch, she made a wide bid on the turn and into the stretch, shrugged off a bump at the furlong marker and drew off despite hopping back to her left lead. Must-use in multiple-race wagers at a likely short price. RISING BELLA never got involved in the Selima, but think she’s an interesting longshot turning back in distance. Munnings filly won maiden going this trip on dirt.

SIXTH RACE

IRISH COLONEL is a nose away from entering this heat on a three-race winning stretch. Worked out a nice inside-out tracking trip to score going seven furlongs at Colonial last time out, but is more than capable at three-quarters. One of the horses he downed last time out, Nottaway, returned to defeat BLUE Y GOLD at Penn National with a 90 Beyer. In that race, Blue Y Gold, lagged far back early, made a prolonged four-wide bid through the turn and into the stretch and just couldn’t get by the winner. Not sure if he gets the right race flow in this short field. DAILY NEWS is another that would prefer a little pace in front of him, but he doubledrops in class after chasing talented Threes Over Deuces (returned to finish second in the New Castle Stakes at Delaware with an 89 Beyer).

SEVENTH RACE

TOY’s dam won three races at two including the Maryland Juvenile Filly Championship, and the second dam was a juvenile debut winner before placing in four sprint stakes. Bought back twice at public auction ($27K last year, $45K in May), but shows some sharp five-furlong drills in preparation for his debut and the barn has been on quite a roll recently. WHISKEY AND YOU has exceeded par for this class level in both lifetime starts. Barring a quick firster, he can make the front once again. Gomez lands here instead of Native Courage. TWO DOORS DOWN fired a bullet half-mile on September 26 for barn that occasionally can pop with a first-time starter. Lots of turf on the bottom of this pedigree. MY FRIENDS BEER is a half-brother to Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint winner Shamrock Rose.

EIGHTH RACE

BATH AND TENNIS had a big look at it turning into the stretch two starts back before tiring in a race that featured Not in Jeopardy (returned to win an ‘n2x’ optional claimer with an 80 Beyer before finishing a close third in the All Along Stakes at Colonial with an 85). Seemed very uncomfortable in the stretch of recent turf sprint as she swapped leads several times while failing to muster a rally. Big class drop and stretch out back to a mile might right the ship. DISCREET SISTER doesn’t have much in the way of a turf pedigree, but her synthetic debut was compromised somewhat by racing in traffic through the turn and into the upper stretch. No match for stakes-bound Arrifana last time out on dirt and fits very well at this level. IVANYA was under the whip a long way out in her most recent turf try when behind LOVELY SUNSET. That race was won by a big longshot that scooted out to an uncontested lead. Ivanya has won the last two times she was offered for a tag.

NINTH RACE

MY CHESA CHARM got caught up in a pace dispute with eventual seventh-place finisher No More Excuses in first start off the Magee claim. Put that one away turning for home, but had nothing left to hold off the closers. Might sit a good trip here tracking likely pacesetter Fender Baby. REIN SUPREME kicked them down in that September 28 heat and should get another nd solid pace to attack. Extremely consistent filly seeks her tenth local win. DAT DARES GOLD did her best running at Timonium over the summer, but not sure if the rail was the place to be last time out and she was down there for a considerable amount of time. LONELY DRIFTER deserves mention as she’s won 12 of 22 starts and hasn’t been off the board in the last dozen races.

TENTH RACE

MOO LAH simply couldn’t compete with those New York-breds, but seems like a nice fit in his first start over this circuit for excellent ship-in barn. His most recent start produced three next-out winners including 71-Beyer graduate Mr. Vincent. Carrasco lands here instead of Aladdin Sane. WISE MEN had no shot against salty winners going 12 furlongs last time out, but he’s put in a run in his last few races against maidens. Late-kicker needs pace help and might want a bit more ground to work with. ALADDIN SANE’s trip didn’t work out in most recent start. Like the top pick, he is taking a serious class drop. CAST THE LOT factors if able to get into the body of the race.