ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, MUCHO MACHO WOMAN

FIRST RACE

MORNING CYNN drops to the maiden-20 bottom after she chased and faded in a highly rated maiden-40 comeback. Third-place finisher Busy Paynter returned to win next out, winner Claudelle was scheduled to start favored Saturday in a starter allowance (race 4). Easier spot for ‘CYNN, who could be long gone second start back. BELLAZANO is a nine-start maiden that finished a respectable second last out when she dropped to this level for the first time. Logical alternative if the top choice misfires. GOTTA BE LUCKY returns from a layoff of more than five months, while racing for the first time at the bottom.

SECOND RACE

CHAMPAGNE’S ON ICE actually ran well in his third-place debut at Golden Gate, rallying to third after breaking last. The race was dominated by the one-two pacesetters, ‘ICE was the only late-runner to do anything. With a clean takeoff second time out, he can handle this modest maiden-30. There is one significant knock, however. The runnerup Mahi Mahi returned in the first race Friday to finish fourth as the favorite, beaten 10 lengths. DREAM PALACE finished an okay fifth in his California debut two weeks ago. This field is considerably easier than the field he faced first time. PIVO merely ran around the track in a lackluster fifth-place debut. The “trouble” at the quarter pole appeared insignificant. Nonetheless, PIVO drops into an easier spot, has a race under his belt, and is certainly eligible to improve.

THIRD RACE

AWESOME HEIGHTS won both 5f turf sprints on this course in spring, he maintained his form in summer at Del Mar, and now returns to his favorite course. His most recent start was super; he missed by only a length after pressing a blazing pace. That race already produced at least two next-out winners and two next-out runners-up. ‘HEIGHTS is drawn outside his main pace rival, and could get a comfortable trip clocking the speedster RESTLESS RAMBLER. The latter dominated a starter allowance on dirt at Los Al last time, he is four-time winner on turf and probably the speed of the field. EROTIC goes route to sprint and will be flying late in a race that should unfold at a hot pace. MORE HONOR returns from an eight-month layoff. He won a pair of downhill turf sprints here earlier, this 5.5-furlong race is on the flat.

FOURTH RACE

Second-time starter MUCHO MACHO WOMAN merits “best bet” status as she moves to the surface (dirt) on which she trained so well prior to her prep-race debut on turf. In that grass race, she merely went through the motions. But since shipping to Santa Anita, she has worked exceptionally well, is believed to have more speed than she showed first out, and should move up a ton with a race under her belt and a switch to the main track. GOLD ARROW showed much promise early this year, runner-up twice as the favorite. A 4-year-old sibling to Grade 1 winner Battle of Midway, GOLD ARROW makes her comeback for new trainer Neil Drysdale. Seems she might want farther than 6f, however. ROAD RAGER is speed, and from the inside post she will have to “go.” Come and catch her.

FIFTH RACE

Close call between THREE AY EM and ZIPPER MISCHIEF in this turf mile, Cal-bred allowance. THREE AY EM holds the slight advantage due to his proven form around two turns. He stretched out for the first time in his career last out, and finished second in a similar Cal-bred N1X turf mile at Del Mar. He hails from the red-hot stable of trainer Doug O’Neill, has pressing style, and he can finish (23.58-second final quarter last out). However, lightly raced ZIPPER MISCHIEF will give him a battle. The latter raced only twice this year, both turf sprints at Del Mar. He followed his dominating maiden victory with a perfect-trip runner-up finish at this class level. One mile should be within reach for the well-bred colt. Sired by Into Mischief, his dam is 10-time stakes winner Unzip Me. Although she was a sprinter, she won seven times going 6.5 furlongs on the hill. That is similar to a mile on the flat. BRIMSTONED merits longshot consideration, third start back from a layoff of nearly two years. The 8-year-old improved a bunch last out, third in a $25k claiming race. He drops into a state-bred restricted mile, and he definitely can stay the trip. Look for him late.

SIXTH RACE

Evenly matched TRUCK SALESMAN and BABY GRONK stand out from the others in this starter allowance sprint. TRUCK SALESMAN, runnerup last out in a productive race (two next-out winners), is drawn near the outside where he can pressure his main rival. BABY GRONK has earned higher speed figures, but lower pace figures, than the top choice. Third in both starts at this class level, ‘GRONK finished one-two in all four starts over the Santa Anita surface. If the top pair cancel each other out, the race could potentially set up for the closing rally of RAILMAN. He is making his third start back from a layoff, and will rally late. He is trained by Peter Eurton, who also entered presser PLATINUM NIGHTS. The latter could get a very good trip positioned third behind the two favorites.

SEVENTH RACE

Front-runner TRAVIEZA and late-runner STORMING LADY are tough to separate in this secondlevel allowance turf sprint. TRAVIEZA could be lone speed in this small field, and possibly tough to catch first start in two months. She has not won in more than a year, and she surrendered the lead in each of her last four starts, but this 5.5f distance could be the right trip. Outside post, versatile running style but more likely to make the lead, TRAVIEZA might be long gone under Rafael Bejarano. STORMING LADY will motor late. Runner-up at this N2X class level two back racing 5f at Del Mar, and fourth by a neck last out at Kentucky Downs racing 6.5f, she will lay back and storm home. Victor Espinoza has ridden her four times: three wins and a second. She could go favored. SMOOVIE shortened to a sprint last out and upset N1X rivals. The consistent filly figures for a comfortable trip positioned second behind the speed. If the top choice fades again, SMOOVIE should get first run.

EIGHTH RACE

BUCK DUANE should be loose on the lead in this bottom-level nonwinners of two lifetime claiming sprint. He dueled on a fast pace last out at 6f, lost by a nose, and finished nearly five clear of third. He figures to clear this field, and he could be gone. The downside is he lost 14 straight since his maiden win, including several at this N2L level. Nonetheless, come catch him. SURFSIDE SUNSET also has lost multiple times at this level, but he does prefer this racetrack over Del Mar. His only win and his two seconds both were at Santa Anita. Furthermore, his figures put him in the hunt. BIG BARREL seems to be regressing. However, this is the first time he has raced at the bottom level, and the best race of his career was over this surface. R B EYE and IMAGINEIAMFASTEST merit “lightbulb” consideration. This N2L class level often is won by horses that finally won a maiden race in their previous start. Both did just that last time out, in the 13th start of their respective careers. Longshot chance, both.