ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, AUTOSTRADE

FIRST RACE

In a field where the overall dirt record is 0-52, there are only three main track Beyers above 48 and CAIRO QUEEN has run two of them, both times when making no impact vs. much better horses; big class drop as she switches back to dirt and she is unlikely to find a better spot than this. FLATTERING EYES flashed some speed to contest the pace from the start and finished a decent 2nd back in May but hasn’t run as well in her two starts since; turns back from a nice outside draw. BEANS N RICE earned a Beyer of 10 in her only dirt start, where she chased and tired at Saratoga; has some speed and this is not a particularly strong field.

SECOND RACE

SHARPE AND READY hasn’t been seen since chasing wide on a gold rail day back in February at Aqueduct in his first start off the claim and he ran well two back when dropped by Rudy and taking pressure on the lead and softened up enough for the eventual winner to take advantage; Baker solid off of longer layoffs like this. WICKED TRICK was going nowhere on turf but showed something when rained off at Parx in June when getting 2nd despite his rider losing an iron at the start, and he has thoroughly dominated his last two starts vs. weaker fields; steps up off the claim and is going to be tough here if holding form. FOUR FREEDOMS returned to NY last time and had to settle for second-best to favored Dark Money who was an easy winner of that race with a 90 Beyer; figures for his last two starts in NY make him a major alyer in here.

THIRD RACE

EMPIRICALLY is a month shy of a 600-day layoff and, as such, is not one to place a lot of faith in, but he is going to beat this field if he can still run for his underrated owner/trainer as he is offered up; was disqualified from his winning debut at Saratoga and made three of his next six starts in stakes company. COBBLE HILL has made one start on turf so far, that in his second career start where he sat the right trip and couldn’t keep up around the second-turn, before getting outfinished; that wasn’t a bad field overall and he can have another chance as he drops back down for his second start off the claim. CHAMPIONSHIP ALLEY was off the long layoff at Delaware last time when chasing the pace and falling short at the end after giving up the rail to the eventual winner; this isn’t much of a field and he is eligible to improve second off the layoff.

FOURTH RACE

AUTOSTRADE never panned out and winning easily with an 87 Beyer first time out but he has run pretty well in all of his starts sprinting over fast dirt to date; hasn’t had those conditions since his first start of the year back in February wher ehe was game to prevail over a rival who has gone on to hold form since then; good spot as he goes off the claim for an underrated trainer and he won’t be favored. BUSINESS CYCLE is the horse to beat as he goes turf to dirt for his second start off the Atras claim; win as a heavy favorite on the drop two back was more game than anything else but he has the back races to be too good for this field. WHO’S DRIVING’s two wins have come out of town but he was forward in both of those starts and there is not much speed in this field; was rated last in a four-horse field (one of the entrants lost the rider at the start) when last seen and picked up a no threat 2nd; should be trying to show speed from the start. TAKE IT TO SCALE has some back races to contend here and has also shown speed at times.

FIFTH RACE

DANZING DUNHILL finished behind FAME TO FAMOUS last time and was really no match for that rival, but that was only his debut and he made a run to have a look in the stretch before flattening out; would not be surprising if he turned the tables, though FAME TO FAMOUS is the horse to beat. FAME TO FAMOUS had no real excuse last time after taking the money but couldn’t get to the second-time starter who had the jump; well-bred colt had trouble first time out and has improved since. IMPERIAL MIGHT is by a sire who is off to a good start, though he is just 1 for 17 with his

first-time turf runners; dam is a sister to a stakeswinner on synthetic, though there really isn’t much performance in this pedigree.

SIXTH RACE

HONOR WAY won easier than it looks back in June then caught mud vs. Saratoga-lover Special Relativity and was claimed from his next start; had no chance while three-wide on a gold rail day last time while still finishing gamely for 2nd. DARIA’S ANGEL returned from the layoff going a shorter distance than is her preference and finished a no-threat 3rd; gets an added furlong to work with here in a race that is not loaded with speed. BREAKING BREAD has made his last five starts in stakes company and is getting the class relief she needs for this while cutting back in distance; has won her last three non-stakes starts and missed by a nose over this distance the last time he sprinted in NY.

SEVENTH RACE

ALISIO improved with racing as a late 2yo and broke her maiden easily in her final start of the year when loose in the mud; had trouble in her return at Saratoga, though she wasn’t winning that day, then finished a good 3rd last time when chasing three-wide after breaking just a bit slowly. CONCERNED had all the best of it while in charge of a rated pace vs. a weak field first time out but she looked good there and earned a respectable figure for that effort; missed 115 days after that race but has been training well on the way back and can improve enough to be a bit threat here. BREAK CURFEW controlled in a race that featured no passing to win for a $75k tag two back and was claimed; back to reality after trying the Prioress first time out for Asmussen,

EIGHTH RACE

DASHING DAN didn’t run his best race last time when not going forward but he ran a strong race two back in his first start for Cox when taking all the late action and then sending on a fast pace; drops from the rail and expecting him to go forward again with blinkers on. TRICKY MAGICIAN has dropped for his last two without success, though the distance was likely too far for him two back and he wound up on the outside all the way last time while failing to make a serious run; poorly drawn again but can use his speed to get a position. UNCLE CURLY lost his maiden win last December to a phantom DQ at Tampa then broke through on the turn back in his third start of the year; exits the same race as the top one and is also dropping for the first time; Clement just 3 for his last 25 with the MSW to MCL drop on turf (12%, $0.54 ROI).