First Star has upside in Raven Run Stakes

There are four Group 1s Saturday in England on the British Champions Day card at Ascot, and at Fair Hill they’re running the Grade 1 Grand National Steeplechase, but as for the North American graded stakes schedule on the flat Saturday? Nearly crickets. With two weeks to the Breeders’ Cup this is a lull on the stakes calendar and the Grade 2 Raven Run at Keeneland is the only graded flat race anywhere in the United States on Saturday.

Fortunately, the Raven Run drew a compelling enough cast to make it worth a play, and casting a wider net to encompass statebred-restricted races at Belmont and Laurel, I’ve cobbled together three stakes on which to gamble Saturday. Raven Run Indian Pride must have been lighting up morning workouts to go off at 3-5 in her career debut Aug. 28 at Saratoga, and made the price look totally fair with an eightlength blowout. Trainer Chad Brown must see plenty of substance to go with this filly’s obvious talent since he not only ships her to Keeneland for her second start, but also jumps her all the way to a Grade 2.

All well and good, but I see Indian Pride more as pace fodder than key player, especially at anything close to as low as her 7-2 morning-line odds. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the filly who should be Brown’s “A” entry, the multiple graded stakes winner Royal Charlotte, actually go off a tick longer price than Indian Pride.

Bell’s the One, who had the misfortune of running into Covfefe last out, figures to be undervalued, and it’s not hard to see Horologist getting into the fray here. She never looked comfortable with the kickback and chasing the pace last out in the Grade 1 Cotillion, but still plugged away for a solid third. The cutback to seven furlongs here holds appeal, but the barn change between starts could disrupt her strong form.

Instead, I’ll try First Star here. Start with this: She got a 92 Beyer Speed Figure, higher than Indian Pride’s debut figure of 90, did so while pulling a much more demanding trip, and has the benefit of a second start going into this race. Logically, First Star could be a shorter price than Indian Pride, but instead could end up three times higher in the win pool.

This filly seems to love competing. Ignored in the betting first out, she held her position gamely around the far turn while under a ride and continued bravely when angled to the fence for a final push that got her home. The third-place finisher, who was favored, won a Remington Park maiden race Sept. 21 by 14 1/2 lengths, for what it’s worth.

Somehow, First Star had even less early speed going a two-turn mile second out than she did in her 6 1/2-furlong debut, but my take is that the filly will allow herself to be positioned wherever the rider wants, though of course she’s not quick enough to make the front in a race like this. She won that last start going away (and galloped out a mile in front) and has come back with an encouraging work pattern. Iroquois Usually we’re talking about Chad Browntrained horses being overbet, but I wonder if More Mischief won’t prove an overlay in the Iroquois, one of eight New York-bred stakes on the Belmont card.

More Mischief has been kept fresh since easily winning a New York-bred first-level allowance in the Saratoga slop, and given the way she performed in her previous Saratoga wet-track start, it’s fair to wonder how much the track conditions moved her up and how much of that performance came from More Mischief improving. The last two starts combined with the bunch of sharp upstate works hint at a filly suddenly coming into her own. There are a number of horses here I’d consider paper tigers, and the Iroquois, which has plenty of pace factors, could shape More Mischief’s way. Maryland Million Ladies Note how My Vixen came within a neck of upsetting the 2018 Maryland Million Ladies at odds of nearly 70-1. Surely she got a boost that day from the Laurel turf course, which can become very pace-favoring, especially this time of year. Entered in the Ladies again on Saturday, My Vixen probably won’t make the lead this time around, but Something Magical can. This filly has sprinted in her last several starts, but she can route, too. In the spring, she led and held second while beaten only by Mercilla, who is a listed stakes-type 3-year-old filly on the open market.