ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, SUE’S MONSTER BABY

FIRST RACE

Maybe going from South Florida to New York and back was a bit much for SISTER GEMA and that is why her most recent was sub par. Or maybe this filly just threw in a bad one as the girls are known to do. It doesn’t change the fact that connections thought enough of this horse to try Saratoga foes two back where she beat over half the field home when finishing fourth (48K purse). Versatile style and inside post go hand in hand today. STORMY NELLY drops into maiden claimers for the first time, has some speed, draws inside, and isn’t bred to like the grass. Hey three out of four isn’t half bad. We would think she is more than capable if this were to come off. SHE FLED THE SCENE has some solid figs and some good tries on her resume. Perhaps a good sod hurt her to some extent two back. The bad news is that she has lost as the favorite in five straight starts. K KITCHEN is by a 14% debut sire and a 10% debut turf sire. Her dam went 9-3-0-1 and earned 36K (no turf). Two of five sibs won and both beat winners while 2 of 4 sibs won on the grass and both were multiple winners. This filly is bred to like the grass but two turns on the green for a debut is tough. GAMBLA is by a 8% debut turf sire. Her dam missed the board in her only turf start. Lone grass sib did the same.

SECOND RACE

SHE NAILED IT figures a good trip from the outside and is proven on this dirt. She has worked three times since her most recent. That try two back from the rail was especially good. New barn is 1 for 1 off the red tag. TUESDAY’S ROSE should be content to sit off the early pace. Her most recent resulted in a 70 Beyer and that is the best last race figure in this race. New barn is 49% off the claim. Before throwing the rent monies in remember that this mare has never tried this dirt and that three back she was pulled up and vanned off. GABRIELLEELIZABETH gets in super light and has some speed. She goes third off the layoff and has an affinity for this dirt. Forgets to stop at a price?

THIRD RACE

ADONIS CREED draws the rail, has some speed, and comes in fresh. This horse is just better on the grass so we can discount recent off the turf try at Tampa. The Navarro barn is 38% off a break of more than 180 days. He could go...all...the... way. UNLOCKTHEPOTENTIAL is better of late and jumps to open claimers. Some horses just like this lawn better than GP proper and we think this is one of them. It helps that his most recent was a near Beyer top. PHILO won nicely two back but it was his most recent that we really liked. He only finished 6th beaten 5 1/2 but look how far back he was early and he didn’t spit the bit. He goes third time for new barn on top of everything. For what it is worth he gets off the rail.

FOURTH RACE

SNAKE EYED GIRL drops into maiden claimers but only cost 10 grand so no biggie. We like how she broke well off the layoff before fading down the stretch. We’re betting that she needed that start. It is nice to know that this barn is 50% second off a long layoff (flat bet profit of $7.10 for every $2 wagered). There isn’t very much pace in this race so this filly might be up close and personal in the early going. EVERYWHEREILOOK ran evenly in her debut and has every right to improve second time out. The rail draw is tough luck. Her turf breeding is marginal so we’re thinking her debut was actually better than it looks. One of three sibs is a multiple winner of 196K. LA GUATEMALTECA is by a 16% debut sire. Her dam went 12-4-1-1 and earned 57K. Lone sib is a year younger and is 9-2-0-1 while banking 36K. We rather like it that this filly debuts as a 4YO. MAY ON THE RUN is by a 8% debut sire. Her dam went 13-2-0-1 and earned 13K. Lone sib is 2-0-0-0.

FIFTH RACE

ROMANTIC TALE is by a 17% debut turf sire. Her

dam was un-raced. Two of four sibs won on the grass and both won their turf debuts (both beat winners on the green). Another sib hit the board on the sod. This filly was stuck on the rail in her debut so that hurt. The blinkers go ON and the price should entice. GLORY DIA is by a 17% debut turf sire. Her dam was un-raced. Lone sib never tried the grass. This filly was stuck on the rail going 6 1/2 panels in her second start but still improved off her solid debut. She might like the grass and her racing experience is invaluable in a field full of first time starters. DE PURA SANGRE is by a 20% debut sire (2YO’s only) and 14% debut turf sire. Her dam went 25-2-6-3 and earned 132K (12-04-0 on the weeds for 44K). Two of five sibs won but zero of two won on the grass. This filly cost $2,500 yet debuts against special weights and for a barn that is 18% with their 2YO’s. TRINNI FLOWER is by a 0 for 4 debut turf sire (0 for 8 with all turf starters). Her dam went 13-3-0-3 on the green for 39K and this is her first foal to try the grass. ROYAL JEWEL is by a 4% debut sire and a 10% debut turf sire. Her dam went 2-0-0-0 (no turf). Lone sib is 8-0-0-0 (no turf). CHOOSE TO BE HAPPY is by a 1 for 8 debut turf sire. Her dam never tried the green. Lone sib never tried the green. Her last race came back key when 2 of 4 returned to win with figs of 62 and 70. KIZZY is by a 2% debut sire and a 7% debut turf sire. Her dam went 32-2-6-5 and earned 77K (no turf). Two of three sibs won while one of three won on the turf. SHARON’S LAW is by a 12% debut turf sire and a 8% debut turf sire. Her dam went 21-3-4-2 and earned 94K (4-0-0-1 on the green for $7,740). Lone sib is 14-2-2-0 and earned 24K (2-0-0-0 on the weeds). PRINCESS CORO is by a 7% debut sire and a 12% debut turf sire. Her dam went 12-5-2-2 and earned 90K (no turf). Lone sib is 6-1-0-1 and earned 8K (1-0-0-0 on the green). ZANGARVA is by a 10% debut sire and a 7% debut turf sire. Her dam went 17-2-4-0 and earned 80K (3-0-1-0 on the green for 10K). This is her first foal to race. IM THIRSTY TOO is by a 10% debut sire and a 6% debut turf sire. Her dam went 8-0-0-0 (half on the grass). This is her first foal to race.

SIXTH RACE

K C TWOSTEP returned off a medium layoff going 6 1/2 furlongs and that is a tough return distance. He showed speed and tired which is all we needed to see. Most of these runners haven’t had a break in a while and at this level we are looking for anything different. This barn shows a flat bet profit second off this type of layoff. SHUDDAWUDDACUDDA is going to go favored. What if he just doesn’t like it here? He just ran poorly when first on this dirt and did so as the favorite. Top shelf barn and good early speed will once again make him the chalk. PEACE ACCORD just ran better and has put good races together before (4 and 5 back). Is six furlongs too short though?

SEVENTH RACE

BEATING THE ODDS ran well going short on the grass two and three back. That isn’t what we are most interested in but rather her most recent turf route. She was stuck in the 11 hole in a full field and still finished fourth. Once again she changes barns but that is fine as this crew that gets 18% winners off the claim. She has worked twice since her most recent and gets back to one turn today. GILDA F. goes for a barn that is 23% with their turf sprinters and 31% with their repeating winners. This filly often gets play. ALPILLES has speed and gets in light. Penchant for less? NILESTAR exits a key race where 2 of 9 returned to win with figs of 64 and 65. SOLD ON SALSA exits a key race where 2 of 5 returned to win with figs of 64 and 73.

EIGHTH RACE

NOON TIME GEM has some tactical speed and draws the attack post for the distance. If the umbrellas come out then the playing field tilts in his direction. Lone distance try came before he got good and was a near Beyer top. What we are saying is we think he will love today’s trip. QUENANE loves this dirt, draws well, can handle the distance, and is often a good price. NUNC PRO TUNC has run well in his last four dirt starts. He loves this distance. That was a huge try two back when he got a 95 Beyer. No surprise he regressed some last out but he still ran well as the favorite.

NINTH RACE

SUE’S MONSTER BABY is by a 16% debut sire (all sire stats are for 2YO’s only). Her dam went 60-911-6 and banked 70K. Three of four sibs won. This barn is 18% with their debut runners and show a flat bet profit. SECRET MISS is by a 13% debut sire. Her dam went 27-1-7-5 and earned 45K. This is her first foal to race. This barn is 12% with their debut maiden claimers. We would like to have seen more than 2 listed works. URKILLINGMEBETH ran evenly in her debut and has every right to improve second out. The rail draw is tough luck. EMILIA STRONG is by a 10% debut sire. Her dam went 11-1-1-2 and won 30K. All 6 sibs won. AWESOME EVIL is by a 12% debut sire. Her dam went 19-14-4 and earned 41K. Lone sib is full brother Totally Evil (23-4-2-5, 60K).