ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, ALNILAH

FIRST RACE

MARIPOSA BELLE closed for a nose loss at first asking going 7 1/2 furlongs around two turns on the inner course. The 4yo daughter of Get Stormy (the sire of the brilliant Got Stormy) seems madeto-order for this seven-furlong maiden special on the main course. JOYFUL CAT is turning back off a series of competitive performances going at least 1 1/16 miles. SWILLING landed on the edges behind the top pick after saving ground in her Sept. 21 opener. Her trainer has excelled with maiden second-timers.

SECOND RACE

SURE WOULD FOREST finished fifth after racing wide last time in a similar spot, from which the runner-up exited to beat OS/$40K maidens with a 66 Beyer. Fukumoto is an adequate replacement for Da Silva, who has landed on the professional maiden OUR UNCLE DREW. Three-quarters on the Tapeta seems a bit short for the latter. KILKENNY PROSPECT battled four-wide for the lead on the turn before understandably tiring when a respectable fourth in his latest on the grass.

THIRD RACE

ALNILAH won the Seaway Stakes from well off the pace with ease after Husbands nearly fell off at the break as she reared up. The 5yo Smart Strike mare has lots of speed to chase in this shorter G3 sprint, in which Husbands has chosen her over JEAN ELIZABETH. The latter outran Sister Peacock for the early lead and never looked back to take the Sept. 21 Sweet Briar Too Stakes by daylight. The Hawthorne-based 4yo could be the dominant front-runner again here over SUMMER SUNDAY, who had her three-race win streak in stakes snapped when second in the Aug. 25 Seaway. SUMMER SUNDAY is competing without Lasix following several quick drills.

FOURTH RACE

ALKELINE broke a little slowly before closing from fourth to beat NW3 OS/$40K opposition going away Sept. 8. She’s stepping up off the claim by McKnight, who’s been scoring at an impressive 33% clip first-time off the halter switch. MARCH OF DREAMS comes off near identical back-toback fourth-place finishes in a pair of restricted stakes on the Tapeta. Note that she graduated over this roomy course. NIIGON’S SPIN brought solid 1 1/4-mile form to her last race in a 1 1/16-mile N1X on the inner turf, in which she came up empty. Give her a chance to rebound with Hernandez taking over from the departed Campbell.

FIFTH RACE

GUN SOCIETY broke out before rallying wide from sixth to finish a clear second in perhaps her best performance under Kimura Sept. 22. She’s since worked twice, and is back in another inner turf route here with Kimura retaining the mount. RUNWAY DREAMER couldn’t keep up after saving ground in the G1 Natalma, after finishing fourth behind the top choice in another one-mile main turf tilt vs. maidens in her debut. SHES THE NORTH figures to be a speed threat. MAGNANIMOUS has worked decently since a fine effort as the favorite on a sweltering day in her July 20 opener.

SIXTH RACE

ANITA GRIGIO went four-wide on the turn over an inside/biased track when third for the second straight time three weeks ago. She doesn’t have an abundance of turf in her pedigree, but could still be a player in this wide open sprint on the main course. WINE NOT BOURBON dueled two-wide for the lead before tiring to finish seventh behind the top pick in her latest. She’s shedding the blinkers, and a repeat of her close second the start before would put her in the frame. First-timers FLASHY PRINCESS and BLUSHING BREW have both decently.

SEVENTH RACE

BAYOU BELLE rallied belatedly from off slow splits for third behind the future G3 Mazarine Stakes winner Curlin’s Voyage when going to a route second-time out Sept. 8. The daughter of turf miler Silver Max is out of G1 E.P. Taylor winner Honey Ryder, who’s produced one turf winner from four starters. HASN’T HIT ME YET missed the break before ending up third in her improved second race in a turf sprint three weeks ago. The average win distance of her dam’s progeny is 8.2 furlongs. A LITTLE VOODOO has been working right along. Use her underneath in the exotics, along with VANA GRAND.

EIGHTH RACE

THEREGOESJOJO is taking a four-race win streak in conditioned claimers and an N1X into this final leg of the Woodbine Turf Endurance Series. The son of English Channel is bred to be a late bloomer, and leading turf rider Kimura retains the ride. PRIDEOFDISTINCTION rallied wide from sixth to win the third leg of the series going 1 5/8 miles, in his first start after finishing third in the 1 1/2-mile Halton Stakes. SINE METU has been a stalwart in the series, without finding the mark. Use him underneath in the vertical bets, along with CAMP CREEK.

NINTH RACE

FIRE DOWN BELOW came three-wide from second to topple $7.5K maidens third-time out Aug. 25. He’s worked thrice leading up to this NW2 dash, in which his tactical speed could come in handy. MC CULLEY comes off four consecutive seconds at this NW2 class, and should be a factor with a hot Contreras back in the saddle. HARDY CANDY is shortening up off a decisive maiden victory, and SHELBOURNE is in peak form.

TENTH RACE

SARARENDA faded from a stalking position in a recent OS/$40K maiden sprint. She’s worked quickly since, and could put it all together against these $15K maidens. SMARTY ARTIE has been out-worked by much better, which is why the Wesley Ward trainee is debuting at this price. DON’T SMILE LILAH ran five-wide on the turn before losing by seven lengths last time for $25K. She’s continuing her slide down the value ladder. JUXTAPOSE is sent out by a trainer who scored with a dropping maiden last Monday.