ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, FIRST STAR

FIRST RACE

STERLING MISS is too in and out to really feel comfortable with a short price, but they’re keeping her at a high tag and she’s much more effective when closer to the lead than she was in last-start comeback run. THOUGHTLESS’s last four starts came on turf or synthetic and she’s probably best on dirt. Lone previous KEE start came at a meaningfully higher class level. STRIP IT DOWN is what she to a great extent, but new barn and new circuit could alter her baseline. As it is, her standard performance - which she usually produces — gets her into the mix, likely at a fair price.

SECOND RACE

A little slice of Canterbury Park at Keeneland! FRIDAYNITESTAR, a four-time winner at the 2019 CBY meet, is speed and the rail and has enough substance at this class level to do something with it. Star was claimed from Mac Robertson, who brings TRUE WEST back from a long break at a level where he could be very effective. Has win over the KEE track and though mainly routing last year also has won at this 6.5f trip. IMPROVISER’s third in a slightly tougher spot last KEE spring was good enough to get him into the trifecta at a long price.

THIRD RACE

ENJAY’S BRASS tried three turf miles over the summer but all the evidence points to her best lick coming as a one-run closer in sprints. They could really be rolling up front here and she can make the last, best move at a price. TAKE CHARGE ANGEL obviously “the one to beat” and guess connections toyed with the Raven Run on this card. Getting into a tussle with Covfefe while making first start in several months turned out predictably poorly, and she ran well over KEE dirt last spring, but with a potentially negative pace scenario and at the low odds, I can’t just assume she’s getting right back to her best here. INTO TROUBLE showed ample promise at 2 while looking like a filly who would progress this year at 3, but she hasn’t. Do like the blinkers off move and hope it comes with a tactical change to let her sit back and finish.

FOURTH RACE

COMPLIANT’s one-mile career debut revealed a horse that looked like he wanted more ground, which he went out and proved to be the case with an encouraging second of 10 going 10 furlongs last out at Belmont. Right distance, right spot, short price. Interesting to see E Kenneally starting RIGHT ON KID out in a 9.5-furlong grass race, a Euro move from an Irish expat. Guessing he’s fit for this and wonder if he might bring a touch of pace to a race otherwise totally lacking it. HELLO AMERICA keeps getting out-quicked in shorter turf and synth races and might really like the longer trip.

FIFTH RACE

NEWSCASTER is a half to G1 winner Tiz Miz Sue and the very fast 3yo Bulletin, took some money in career debut, broke slowly and mainly just got an education in that CD start. Looking for a lot more second time out with blinkers added and a quick interim half-mile. MAXIMILIANO might not have loved the mud and ran into the very talented Gouverneur Morris while showing good speed in SAR debut. Suspect he sticks around on the front end considerably longer this time. CHITTO was slow to get into debut from rail draw - and draws the rail again. But think the move from dirt to turf could be a plus.

SIXTH RACE

Off-brand (for KEE) jockey and trainer will give you a few extra odds points on ECHO ALPHA SIX, whose winter form was more than adequate to contend in a race like this if he can find it first time back from an extended vacation. Pretty lively

drills over the deep BTP surface. SMILE BRYAN and HIDDEN RULER are tough to separate for me, both somewhat obvious “logical” contenders who have the feel of horses who easily could run below their on-paper form.

SEVENTH RACE

Complexifier is an above-average 2yo and was the only one of 11 in front of GOLD STREET at the finish Sept. 20 at CD. GS’s career debut at Ellis is a toss and suspect here he’ll better ration that early speed he showed last time. HANSENS MISCHIEF similarly got too much of a pretty strong pace in his most recent start. Didn’t show need-the-lead tendencies on turf in career debut and the cutback to 6f from 7 could work well. Debuting BIRD IN THE HAT lazered a half-mile gate drill on Oct. 2 and might be pretty quick. Mr. Monomoy’s sister is Monomoy Girl and Mike Smith is riding, so he’s nearly certain to be an underlay.

EIGHTH RACE

JEHOZACAT doesn’t seem like a pace-pressing type yet that’s where she wound up last out over a Parx course that not every horse this time of year is going to handle. Draw a line through that race and she fits this spot cozily, with a good run over the course last spring. MAROUBRA came from France intended as a long-distance turf mare, but she’s really not been staying all that well and this turn back to a middle distance could suit her. She’s 15-1 on the line and that would be a far price on a horse dropping from four stakes down to allowance company. BOXWOOD probably lost her chance at the start last time, and while she might be a touch better on dirt than turf, she might also be the controlling speed here.

NINTH RACE

FIRST STAR got plenty of education in her two Del Mar starts, forced to make her final run up the inside first time out, then settling and looping the field stretched to a two-turn mile second out. She appears to have a lot of scope, a lot of leg, and I really like the way she travels. Guessing she has the pace to stay in touch with a faster pace and hoping there’s quality to handle the jump to a G2, Ought to have plenty of pace in front of her. HOROLOGIST appeared to improve when stretched to longer distances than this, but she could also have mainly been a late-developer who happened to be getting better as she was being stretched out. In any case, don’t mind the drop back to 7f here and she comes out of the best race. Never looked entirely comfortable with kickback at PRX. Barn change since last something to consider.

BELL’S THE ONE twice went two turns and once a one-turn mile during the spring and early summer, and she’s probably at heart a 6-7f horse. Ran into the mighty Covfefe when back last out from an extended break and doesn’t even need to improve much off that run to contend.

TENTH RACE

UNCAPPED drops to allowance out of a third in a 3yo-restricted KD stakes from which the runnerup emerged to beat older horses in the G2 Woodford opening KEE weekend. In a vacuum he’d make sense here, but the race also appears to set up for him in terms of pace. HAYDENS HAVOC has to draw in from AEs and if doing so work a trip from a wide draw, but he’s coming off a pair of positive turf sprints and the one-furlong cut-back in distance helps. STAR OF KODIAK faces a couple notches tougher but did win well last out at AP making his first turf-sprint start and could have the right running style for this race.