ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, MY SARASOTA STAR

FIRST RACE

GINS AND TINS puts the blinkers on and that should sharpen his front speed enough to find the front end where an early breather awaits. Don’t forget that this gelding had the lead at the first call in a Saratoga turf sprint stakes and it was also the last time he wore blinkers. We say he is better now. Class drop is a bit scary and it hurts the price but we just can’t resist this possible front end trip. ANOTHER SOFTBALL has tactical speed and seems to like this sod. If our top pick is off form, then this gelding might benefit the most and at a better price. DYNAMIC DANCER has hit the board in 3 of 4 local turf tries. His most recent was a tad better and maybe now is a good time to return to the grass where he has hit the board in 15 of 25 starts.

SECOND RACE

LADY PLAYER was buried on the rail going 7 panels last out and then broke dead last. Her tries 2, 3, and 4 back were all encouraging. How she handles two turns is the key today. It helps that she gets good race flow as we count three in here with some speed. COTTON TOOYAH ran OK last out even though she drew poorly. She adds ground today and might stalk a very nice trip if Meneses can get this mare to relax early. QUEEN ROLLER is speed on the stretch-out. Maybe she is the speed of the speed. Local tab is fine and this barn is 15% sprint to route. LAPULGA, if a good price, could be a superfecta contender for the simple reason that she has two turn experience from Tampa.

THIRD RACE

SLICK STAR has some speed in a race with little speed. If his main pace foe is on his right then drawing inside is a small plus going short on the green. This barn is 25% when returning a horse between 31-60 days. REORGANIZE was almost as quick as our top pick two back in their common race. Current form is fine and we know that this gelding likes this sod. GOLDENLINEOF just ran better on the class drop. Maybe he is another that likes this sod. Race flow doesn’t help much but you could have said the same last out when he lost by only a length at almost 7-1. We can’t fault

anyone that likes GIANT’S WILLOW and he is bred to love the green.

FOURTH RACE

ELISSAS SECRET gets a jock switch to Zayas and we like that for two reasons. 1) we think he sends this filly and 2) he has ridden this filly before. There is zero speed in this race so whomever finds herself on or near the front end owns an advantage. Second time with new barn and second off the layoff can’t hurt. BIRD OF PEACE is feeling good but has yet to try the local lawn. She loses Zayas to our top pick. The good news is that she adds a full furlong so she shouldn’t be too far off whomever finds the front. SNOWZILLA might have needed her return try to some extent. Plus, 7 furlongs is a tough return distance. This barn is 19% second off this type of layoff. This filly has some back class and might be a decent price. Lack of tactical speed is the main knock.

FIFTH RACE

UNCORK THE BOTTLE got a 70 Beyer speed figure in his debut and that towers over these. We don’t see too many claims from the maiden claiming ranks so we pay attention when it does happen. We like how new connections find a spot where this colt can’t be claimed. Other speed is a worry but at least this colt draws outside all of it. SHORTY looks better if you think he hates the grass like we do. Plus, his turf breeding is poor (179 turf Tomlinson). He did win nicely three back and as the favorite. There should be some tired runners to chase in here as we spy four with early zip. ONE FAST won his debut way back in May so he should be more mature now (therefore faster). It seems he is a gelding now. Local works are noted.

SIXTH RACE

SARASOTA COUNTY is by a 17% debut turf sire (nice). His dam went 3-0-0-2 on the green and earned 10K. Lone sibling to try the grass missed the board in three starts. This colt has never seen claimers and his only poor try came at 7 furlongs. He comes in fresh and perhaps that sharpens his speed some. Ideally, we would want him to stalk the rail runner as no one wins a speed duel other than the stalkers/closers. BLACK JET can fire fresh. He just won from the rail at GP proper. He looks to be the speed of the speed. Lone local grass start was so long ago that it has fallen off his pp’s but it was a third place finish. FRENCHMEN STREET actually had the lead with a furlong to go the last time he tried this green and it came at today’s distance. His most recent was better while that not so good try two back came going much longer.

SEVENTH RACE

MY SARASOTA STAR just won gate to wire and now catches a race without a ton of zip. Why can’t this improving 3YO steal another? We love this inside post that isn’t the rail. She gets in light and that might sharpen her front speed a tad more. Wire please. FLORA FANTASY might have appreciated some time off as her return try was a career best 85 Beyer. Or maybe she just loves this dirt. We like that she has worked since her most recent. PERSPIRE cuts back to an elongated sprint and has two recent works. She broke her maiden on this dirt. Rendon is 37% when riding for team Gold.

EIGHTH RACE

NO NAY MAYBE has turf experience and that is quite valuable in a race like this (four are first turfers). The blinks go ON and that is a 30% move for this barn. This gelding is bred to love the lawn with his 412 grass Tomlinson. Breaking dead last did not help matters in his most recent. Form cycle hints at better and he goes second time this sod. SUNDOWN KID is by a 1 for 7 debut turf sire (2 for 9 with all turf starters). His dam missed the board in her only turf start and this is her first foal to try the weeds. Class drop is noted and her turf breeding is solid. FAST DRIVEN did show some speed in his debut and it came locally. We like that he draws outside and that connections want another turf sprint. FUEGO is by a 17% debut sire and a 7% debut turf sire. Her dam went 16-2-0-1 for 50K (8-2-0-0 on the green for 36K, won grass debut). Four of five sibs won and three beat winners. One of four sibs won on the grass while two more hit the board.