ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, DAWOOD

FIRST RACE

The runner-up finish at Los Alamitos last out by I CAN DO THIS was validated when the horse he finished a half-length behind came back to win at Fresno. I CAN DO THIS finished more than five clear of third, he earned a good number, and has more tactical speed than main rival JAMMIN WITH BRANDON. The latter drops into a restricted claiming race (non-winners of two lifetime) for the first time. This is the first start in two months for ‘BRANDON, whose speed figures earned over the Santa Anita track in spring are tops in this field. If the top choice does not win with an up-front pressing trip, then ‘BRANDON can win from behind. Wagering value minimal in a five-horse field, of course. ROYAL INSIDER defeated 3-year-old claiming rivals last out, over a track that was kind to his up-front style. He won his last two starts on this dirt surface; he will keep the pace honest.

SECOND RACE

Runner-up both recent starts, LADY SUNSET gets the nod in this maiden-30 for 2yo fillies. Although she lost by seven lengths last out, she actually ran okay while earning a higher speed figure than pace figure (Tom Brohamer figs). The pattern suggests the longer distance of this 6-furlong race is okay. The winner of the race returned to finish second in an allowance at Zia Park; the three-four finishers returned to hit the board in maiden-claiming races. In other words, LADY SUNSET ran well against a decent field. Second-time starter TROUVILLE merely ran around the track in her debut, trailing the small field all the way. But that maiden-50 was a tougher bunch than this lower level, she should improve with a race under her belt. Rider switch to red-hot Flavien Prat is a benefit; he and trainer Leonard Powell are 7-for-21 the past six months. TOO MUCH HEAVEN could be the speed of the field, dropping from maiden special-weight. She chased a fast pace in her debut, there is less speed in this race.

THIRD RACE

Class dropper VELVET QUEEN and winner-at-this level KHAIRIYA are the principals in this turf mile for $50k claiming 3yo fillies. VELVET QUEEN ran the best

race of her career on this turf course in June, third by less than a length in an entry-level allowance. Two subsequent starts were subpar, hence the drop to claiming. She can win if she avoids a pace duel with the other front-runners. If not, late-runner KHAIRIYA could be along in time. She won at this level two starts back by rallying from off the pace, then was in tough in a N1X. Back with claiming fillies, the threetime winner will fly late as one of the logical choices.

SUPER BUNNY is another dropping for the first time to the claiming ranks, with speed to keep the pace honest. Along with stretch-out SO GUCCI, there appears to be an abundance of speed in this field. That actually benefits second preference KHAIRIYA.

FOURTH RACE

Veteran $10k claiming sprinters go six furlongs, DESERT GENERAL can fire right back after a solid $8k claiming win at Los Al. Sharp current form, versatile running style, proven over the SA track, acceptable recent speed figures, weight break, plenty to like. SHORT OF EZ returns to the claiming ranks after finding Cal-bred allowance rivals slightly out of reach. The gelding drew a cozy outside post, he has speed for a pressing trip, he has won over the track and enters as the strong second choice. PURIANO got beat by post position last time. The inside at Los Al was not the best part of the track, he pressed the pace inside and faltered. He drew a better post this time, his recent races are good, and he is a threat from just off the pace. BOY HOWDY finished second to the top choice last out, another in a string of sharp efforts. Many contenders in this deep claiming sprint. FAST COTTON and BURN ME TWICE add speed.

FIFTH RACE

A hot pace in a $32k claiming sprint on dirt contributed to the last-out defeat of GETALOADOFTHIS. Now he switches to turf and draws an outside post where he has the option of pressing/stalking in the clear. That did not happen last time. He was away slowly, zoomed inside a multi-horse duel, opened up on fast fractions and then faded. His most recent win was a turf sprint in which he pressed/stalked; that is the likely trip here. AWESOME HEIGHTS drops two claiming levels, adds blinkers and gets a weight break with a five-pound apprentice. ‘HEIGHTS was compromised last time when he bobbled at the start, like so many horses in 5.5-furlong turf sprints that begin on main dirt oval. If he gets away well this time, ‘HEIGHTS will be a front-end factor all the way. ITALIANO ran turf sprints races in summer at Del Mar that put him in the hunt; he may have been overmatched both recent starts. CONQUEST COBRA is a sharp horse moving up in class, trying turf for the first time at age 7.

SIXTH RACE

COLONEL POWER misfired last out, but her runnerup finish two starts back in a similar maiden-20 would be tough to beat. The 5-year-old mare worked fast since her subpar effort one month ago. Expect a return to form. MY S V R is quick, dropping from maiden-30 to rock-bottom maiden20, and a certain pace factor. SYBIL’S KITTY returns from a five-month layoff while also dropping in class.

SEVENTH RACE

Front-runner STOP THE VIOLENCE and stablemate late-runner BLACKOUT give trainer Peter Miller a one-two punch in this small-field N2X turf sprint. Meanwhile, the speed of the field is BOA NOVA. Those are the key entrants in this five-runner field. STOP THE VIOLENCE ran the best race of his career last out, winning a highly rated N1X turf sprint at Del Mar over next-out winner Lil Milo. ‘VIOLENCE is quick enough to keep the rail-drawn speedster company on the front end. If the pacesetters hook up, the race could unravel in favor of BLACKOUT from off the pace. His runner-up finish in his most recent start on turf, behind a next-out stakes winner, is among the fastest in this field. His closing style could fare well in a race likely to unfold at a hot pace. BOA NOVA is the speed of the field, dropping in class after setting an insane pace and weakening last month in a Grade 2. He will take the field as far as he can.

EIGHTH RACE

DAWOOD gets “best bet” designation, showing up for the first time at the bottom class level for winners ($12.5k claiming, N2L). These type races frequently are won by horses racing at the bottom level for the first time. DAWOOD won a maiden20 two back, was overmatched last out as a 30-1 longshot on turf, now faces a modest field in the basement. He can grind out the win from off the pace. BIG IMPRESSION finished second at this level two back, at Los Alamitos, then was in tough last time as a 54-1 outsider on turf. Blinkers on, he will finish. BIG BARREL has more speed than the top pair, he stretches out for the first time and has a shot on the lead. DR. BAGLEY is improving, and might be ranked too low by this handicapper. His last-out 65 Beyer compares favorably to his rivals.