ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, PLEBE

FIRST RACE

MRS. S was strongly backed in her debut last month, where she lacked early speed and was then no match for a sharp winner in the stretch while prevailing 2nd; lands in what appears to be a much easier spot for her second start and is bred to stretch out. KEMBA looked green chasing the pace first time out at Saratoga and was allowed to finish in her own once out of contention in the stretch; dropped and finished gamely in an improved effort second time out and she has a ton of pedigree to handle this added distance. INDAWIN a Calumet homebred debuting for Pletcher and she is from the family of Grade 3 winning dirt router La Reina and the multiple Grade 1 winner Queena (2nd dam).

SECOND RACE

LOVE OF MY HEART debuted sprinting at Saratoga and was game while just racing on evenly from off the pace, before being bothered a bit late to no consequence; gets more distance to work with second time out for Casse, who has a good record in this situation - 2yo, maiden, second start, turf, sprint to route: 7 for his last 42, 17%, $2.32 ROI. NOBLE ENTERPRISE a firster by Noble Mission from a dam who was a three-time turf winner in her career and who has dropped three turf winners already; trainer has been quiet over the last couple of years but he is underrated and more than capable with the right horse. JAZZY LADY debuted in a slow race that was restricted to horses sold for $45k or less, or RNAd at auction, but she was game there while surging late between horses; well drawn and can do better from a nice inside draw.

THIRD RACE

PLAINSMAN ended his 3yo campaign on a high note with three straight wins, including the Grade 3 Discovery; seasonal debut looked like a perfect prep as he came with a game late run for 2nd behind a front-running winner and he may be set for his best here as he drops out of the Grade 2 Kelso, where he was wide on the turn before racing on evenly in the lane. REALM seemed to pick up his game with added distance over the summer, as he was against the track a couple of times while running better than it looks; caught slop dropping out of stakes competition and turned back last time and he can do better over fast ground from his outside draw. YOU’RE TO BLAME, like REALM, seemed to improve when stretched out to longer distances by Pletcher, but he, too, has strong form to fall back on going shorter; won his 2019 debut over this distance before stretching back out in some tougher spots.

FOURTH RACE

PURRAGEOUS DYNA cleared her state-bred conditions last May and has found the going a little tougher in the open allowance ranks, though she had continued to run her figures vs. the tougher competition and finally got the entry-level win two back; back in with NY-breds while turning back to a distance that should suit her as a prior winner sprinting on turf in NY. LOVELY LA LA won her first two starts on turf last year but she has not shown much - if any - improvement as a 4yo; like this distance for her and this is probably the easiest spot she has landed in so far this year. MAIDEN BEAUTY is exiting a subpar effort on the dirt, and she is probably just better on that surface, but she did not have a great trip in her only turf start to date and she is at a more suitable distance for her second try on grass.

FIFTH RACE

PROPORTIONALITY doesn’t really have the figures to fall back on as he steps up in class but he does land in a field that contains questionable favorites and he has the speed to perhaps take advantage as he switches back to dirt after failing to look like a turf horse in his two recent attempts; draws outside for a trainer who is 6 for his last 21 (29%) going turf to dirt with sprinters in NY ($2.65 ROI) and can contend at a fair price with his

good race. GIRL OF TOSCONOVA sprinted for the first time in her career when returned from a long layoff last time and while she was game for 3rd with a new top figure in that spot, she also rode a good rail for much of that race; has run well every time when properly spotted and can still hold out hope for more improvement. COLLEGEVILLE GIRL looked good winning on debut at Saratoga as a 2yo then had trouble getting back to the races (was scratched at the gate at least once) and was nowhere in her only other start before the layoff; had a soft trip vs. only three others when winning two back and she has no business in the Cotillion last time; probably makes the most sense in here but don’t really want a short price on her.

SIXTH RACE

HONOR BELLE is a half to three-time turf sprint winner Full Tap, by Honor Code (2 for 8 so far with first time starters on turf) and from a dam who was a stakes winner on grass; brought $200k earlier this year after breezing 21.1 and debuts for Levine, who is 3 for his last 13 with first time starters in turf sprints, with the winners scoring at 7:1, 9:1 and 11:1 ($4.67 ROI). KARAKONTIE FLYER debuted sprinting on dirt at Gulfstream and was no match for a clear-cut, frint-running winner while failing to finish strongly as the favorite; half-sister to two Grade 1 winners is a by Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Karakontie (5 for 21 with his turf starters so far). CANDY FLOWER is by 16% turf sire Twirling Candy; dam didn’t win on turf from eight tries in her career but she was stakes-placed on the surface multiple times, in addition to being a stakes winner on dirt.

SEVENTH RACE

Liked ZULU last time off a tough trip in his start two back but he could never make an impact there after taking a three-wide tracking trip off the pace of LEITONE and was outfinished late; willing to give him one more chance here with Ortiz sticking, as this shorter distance around one turn is likely better for him. LEITONE has won his last two starts on the main track, both in front-running fashion while going turf to dirt and dropping in class; looks like the clear speed once again for a dangerous trainer. SUPER DUDE has won his last two on dirt, both in close finishes around two turns; went to Delaware to make his first start for Rudy but that was a nice horse that was second to him.

EIGHTH RACE

THERAPIST is cutting back for the first time since taking the Elusive Quality over this distance in his 4yo debut, where he overcame a poor tactical ride to prevail with a strong finish; hasn’t won since but he has been holding his own vs. some tough competition, often while going longer than he prefers. MADE YOU LOOK looking for his first win since last May, which was also the last time he faced something other than graded stakes competition; class relief is big and think this distance might suit him as he is more of a milertype and has won sprinting in the past. BOUND FOR

NOWHERE is 5 for 7 in North America and is also Group 1-placed in Europe but has now lost three in a row and is returning from a layoff after failing to run his good race when last seen at Ascot in May; has the speed to control here and is dangerous with his good race, though he does have some questions surrounding his recent form; scratched from an allowance race at Keeneland on Wednesday to await this.

NINTH RACE

PLEBE finished a good 3rd on debut last summer over course and distance, then might have won his next start if not for lugging in badly in the stretch and allowing his rider no control; had speed off the layoff but couldn’t get involved late after chasing the leaders; drops for the first time while changing trainers again. CLAMOR was taken in hand after breaking a bit awkwardly and wound up getting outrun early, but he was racing on gamely in the stretch from too far away in an underrated debut; starts back as a new gelding and picks up Castellano. BEACH FRONT has sprinted on turf twice in his career, first in his debut when rallying into a fast pace as the favorite and just getting outfinished, then off the layoff two back when failing to factor vs. a good field; turns back and drops for in for the tag after failing to make headway into an easy pace last time.