ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, HOW IRONIC

FIRST RACE

ROMAN CITY’s third career start is her first on dirt, and City Zip out of an Empire Maker mare is’t a pedigree that shouts all turf. Diodoro barn generally high percentage but especially strong with turf-dirt move and batting .270 with a large sample of maiden-claimers. WE DONT BELIEVE HER likely forced to leave running from post 1, try to make the front, and see what happens, but there does appear to be speed to her outside. FASHION FACT very likely better on dirt than the career debut at IND - but better enough?

SECOND RACE

KRSTO SKYE broke slowly from the rail but after that flub turned in a solid performance against some of these same opponents in a Sept. 19 CD start he might have “needed” coming back from a three-month layoff. Logged three local works for barn with a notably strong second-after-midterm-layoff record. ZAEVION didn’t do much in the Ellis Park start but his other three sprint races since being claimed May 25 were strong, and the owner-trainer continues holding firm under starter-allowance conditions. 8yo GRIFF just ran one of his stronger races earlier this month and might be susceptible to regression.

THIRD RACE

MARK MY WAY had a tough go of things Oct. 6 and still ran decently, and it’s a good thing in one respect he’s not coming back 19 days after a peak performance. Ran faster over the summer and can stick closer with a better break. PEEKACHO has been racing longer raced but his record at this 1 1/16-mile trip says this middle-distance is just fine. Grinding type wasn’t at his best last out, and suppose 13 starts into his campaign could be on the down-side of things. JERRID had post 12 in a similar spot earlier this month and shows a performance just two starts ago fast enough to contend.

FOURTH RACE

Looks like debuting ROMARIO had two KEE works with barn’s first-time starter We The Clouds later on this card. Lively drills all along and trainer Hamm has won with four of last 12 first-timers in maiden-claimers. COMMISSARIO shows a mere $12K purchase price giving connections latitude to perhaps take a little edge starting off in this $50K MCL. Cox barn obviously consistent winner with first-timers. WICKED CITI debuts for 10X the published purchase price but to be honest I personally haven’t seen much so far by offspring of this young sire.

FIFTH RACE

UNFORESEEN evidently just got a leg-stretcher in that IND dirt-sprint debut, and with Lasix added and switch to a turf route at KD she turned in a far superior performance. Victorious Witez was sharp in that race and Unforeseen need not improve much to contend here. POWDER RIVER also faced Witez at KD in a debut run won sharply by Jezebel’s Kitten (who did come back to disappoint in the Jessamine at KEE). Gap in works from late August to late September but has gotten in four more drills and probably fit enough if capable. TURNSTONE did benefit racing close to a modest pace in a solid second-start performance last out at CD but must cope with a tough draw here.

SIXTH RACE

KEARNY COUNTY runs for the same $40K tag as last time but here gets into a conditioned claimer after facing open-claiming foes last time. The two most recent dirt starts on his form suggest he’s a snug fit generally at a level like this and particu

larly in a spot lacking oomph. Probably will need some pace help. LNGTERMRELATIONSHP quickly swings back into action after being claimed by trainer R Diodoro, who has a $2.10 ROI from a large recent sample of first-claimed runners. Solid performance last time but also has run a little better than that in the past. SENOR JOBIM all sprints and suddenly stretched to a route by owner-trainer Asmussen, who still values him at $40K. Confusing set of circumstances. Wonder if he goes on a speed mission.

SEVENTH RACE

Doesn’t look like the strongest 2yo maiden of the meet. Trainer HG Motion has two first-time starers here and while Speedy Vanessa has a gap in the works and looks more turf-bred than dirt, SAYYIDA AL HURRA shows a more solid Fair Hill work pattern, including encouraging dirt drills, and is bred for the dirt. Debuting homebred WE THE CLOUDS has some pedigree behind her and after doing much of the prep work over Tapeta surface at PID has logged three local works that, on paper, catch the eye. SNAFFLE wasn’t on Lasix for her debut and the barn doesn’t hit with a lot of first-time starters anyway, so she might be considerably better in dirt sprints than that performance denotes.

EIGHTH RACE

HOW IRONIC ran two good turf sprints, including in rich KD stakes, to start career and really is bred more like a route horse. Just drawing a line through the dirt try last time. Right rider to stick to the fence and hope to find a hole in the stretch if she’s running. LOVE BEACH a prompt debut winner at CNL and could make not late headway last time when third in an LRL stakes dominated by forwardly placed fillies. Should have room to take a step forward now. SECRET STASH clearly fits off a mildly troubled close fifth making US debut in the WO G1 but guessing she could wind up lower than the 4/1 morning line.

NINTH RACE

LADY KATE worked twice following the G1 Ashland during KEE April, then went to sidelines. Know she can run well fresh since she was a debut winner and the barn is very capable with comeback horses. Really like the cut back to seven furlongs and the wide draw is fine for a race with this configuration. BRITTAS BAY could be the speed of the speed from the fence and you feel better about the gate habits of W Ward-trained horses than with a lot of other folks. Would feel better about her hanging on were this 6 1/2f. DIAMOND CRAZY seems to be making mild progress but wouldn’t think there’s tremendous upside here,

TENTH RACE

Maybe PADDY O’DINI isn’t good enough for this, but who knows? This was a $10K maiden-claimer just four races ago and look how far he’s risen after finding a home on grass. Comes out of a legit N2X at IND in which he finished very fast and his chances, whatever they might be, are going to be discounted here. HIERARCHY off a barn and circuit change went all the way back to 7f last time at KD and that just was too short. Don’t see a single race on his form where he didn’t fire. HIGH PROMISE has high Beyers that could over-rate his chances in this group. He’s not a reliable winner by any stretch.