ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, TAKE CHARGE DUDE FIRST RACE

UPSY DAISY DO is by a 6% debut turf sire. Her dam went 6-1-1-2 on the grass and earned 15K. Lone sibling to try the grass is 15-2-2-2 and banked 45K. This filly has a nice even running style when sprinting and that bodes well for today’s added distance. Any speed she might show is a bonus. SWEET BLOSSOM is knocking on the door and will find the winner’s circle sooner than later. The bad news is that she has lost as the favorite in four straight. ALGODONAL does have some upside with this being only her fifth start. She has some solid turf tries to date and now goes second time with her new barn.

SECOND RACE

MIDTOWN ROSE has already won on this dirt and now goes third off the layoff. Current form is fine as is this barn. Added half furlong is a bonus while Zayas is 39% when riding for team Joseph locally. LEVY LAND has some speed but shortens up two furlongs today. There isn’t much pace in this race, right? Trainer stats are solid across the board especially 26% in sprints. We like that Jaramillo lands here. R PREROGATIVE ran a big 89 Beyer only two back. A classic bounce last out? She has lost two of her last four starts and all have been as the favorite. Tactical speed and a bullet work are hard to miss.

THIRD RACE

DIAMOND CHALICE stumbled after the start in her debut but she got what she needed in race experience. Five of six sibs beat winners. Recent work seems just right. Rail draw is tough luck but we think the price will be square on this second time starter. COMPANY STORE was sharp before the short layoff. He drops into maiden claimers for this and that is a 27% move for this barn. This colt has never run a poor one and is the one to beat today. TORTOLA PRIDE is by a 7% debut sire. His dam went 8-3-0-1 and earned 65K. Of 7 sibs to race, 6 won of which 5 beat winners. Those five sibs are earned at least 85K in their careers. Works are OK and we would think this debut runner will be a price. CREEDMOOR is by a 13% debut sire.

His dam was un-raced. One of two sibs won but only once.

FOURTH RACE

TAKE CHARGE DUDE is by a 13% debut turf sire. His dam missed the board in her only turf start. Lone sibling never tried the grass. This gelding has speed in a race without a ton of zip. This barn is 23% in turf sprints. Catch him to cash. DIAMOND MINT has run better in three of his last four turf sprints. He has hit the board in two of three on this sod so no problems there. With a good break, he might find the front end but if not he should still be up close and personal in this race. FUZZY IRISH RASCAL just ran OK on this sod. His lack of speed is the main knock.

FIFTH RACE

SMALL FORTUNE can fire fresh and figures a very good stalking trip. He likes this dirt and draws just fine. Maybe those Tampa lines before the break will help his price. Works are well spaced. The long layoff might be a bit scary but other than that this guy is as solid as it gets. SALAMBO looks better if you discount that sloppy Joe try two back. He did win his only start on this dirt. Race flow is more than fair as long as the ultra quick 7 stays in. The rail draw is what worries us the most. HARRYHEE will try and be the speed of the speed. Local tab is just fine. When this guy gets any kind of a breather is when he is doubly tough. If we had to pick someone to go wire to wire in this field then it would be this guy. By now, you should know how this track is playing. If speed is holding .... bet early and often.

SIXTH RACE

BABYBEL broke 9th of 10 in her debut and then ran evenly. That is all we needed to see. We like that connections want two turns today while staying on the green. This filly’s dam is 2-1-0-0 on the grass and earned 19K. This is her first foal to race so no help there. DREAM MARIE tried two turns on the green in her debut and that is a tough spot. She has worked four times since. This is dam’s first foal. The blinks go ON for good measure. MILKAH ran OK on the grass two and three back and both were against better. This barn shows a flat bet profit on the grass. The one to beat? FREYA’S FIRE is by a 1 for 13 debut sire and a 1 for 6 debut turf sire. Her dam went 3-0-0-0. Lone sib is 23-1-0-0 for 20K (1 for 17 on the grass).

SEVENTH RACE

MICHIGAN SUNSET added a full furlong last out and was facing first time winners in only his third start. He ran great while buried on the rail. He has improved his Beyer speed figure in every start. Why can’t he keep improving. His upside is better than all of these. He even draws well. BUDDY’S RUN looks better if you toss that turf try two back. This barn is 18% when returning a runner between 61-180 days. Gap in works from September 27th to October 19th is the only reason we didn’t put this colt on top. We think he draws best for this tricky distance. OH DANNY BEAR is feeling great. He loves this distance. Trainer stats are rock solid across the board. JAMAICAN is pure speed and will get a lot of play.

EIGHTH RACE

DEBBIES UTUBE DIVA is by a 17% debut turf sire. Her dam went 5-1-0-1 on the grass and earned 17K. Both sibs won on the grass including a multiple winner of 169K. Yes, this filly didn’t show anything in her debut but we can forgive anyone’s first start. Connections find a logical spot and we think this filly is best going two turns on the grass. RENEES IN HEAVEN has tried nothing but the grass so bonus points for that. She has yet to get a clean trip in her career. She lands in a barn that is 2 for 11 with new runners. TEACHER DRAMA might be a new route horse. Her turf debut last out was solid and she should improve second time on the green. CHEROKEE SOUND is by a 9% debut sire and a 11% debut turf sire. Her dam went 4-1-1-0 for 26K (won 2YO debut, no turf). Lone sib is 7-1-2-0 for 36K (3-0-1-0 on the green for 8K).