ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, FORESTER’S TURN

FIRST RACE

FORESTER’S TURN got away slowly before closing wide from four lengths back to win his 5 1/2-furlong opener going away with a 66 Beyer. The son of Old Forester has lots of speed to run at in this NW2 OS/$40K sprint over six furlongs. RED FICTION earned the highest Beyer on the page (72) when third in the fast-paced Bull Page Stakes in his second start Sept. 22, and has worked well since. AGNELLI only got a 48 Beyer in his victorious debut, but he could pick up some of the pieces.

SECOND RACE

AVALON comes off back-to-back strong showings on the dirt at Fort Erie, and should be prominent off the reclaim by trainer Nick Gonzalez, who’s 7 for 26 at the meet when using Mosqueira. QUIETLY QUICK is descending to a new low off a fading third in a shorter sprint. TORNADO CAT placed in each of her last three outings at the border oval, most recently with Alderson replacing the sidelined Wenc. She has a spotty record on synthetics.

THIRD RACE

MONSOON RAIN earned good Beyers on the Tapeta for this caliber of competition before a subpar performance most recently on the grass, during which she was squeezed back at the break. BELLA NINA has run three excellent races on two different turf courses since a head loss in a $15K NW3 Tapeta route July 3. SLYDINI evolved into a turf expert after getting claimed for $7.5K in May. She could make most of the running as the lone speed in her return to the Tapeta.

FOURTH RACE

HURRICANE EMILY was a wide/stalking second behind the favorite when she was boosted up in class to compete with a $40K tag in her latest. She could track all the speed before going in for the kill in this $25K NW3 tilt. PINK SCRIBBLES rallied nicely on the outside from a trailing sixth to polish off $25K NW2 opposition when getting some class relief Oct. 2. NEVER SOBER wired $25K NW2 rivals in her penultimate start. She figures to be a speed threat in the second race of her form cycle.

FIFTH RACE

MY NAME IS GUS is by the good speed/debut sire Old Forester, and is sent out by a successful first-out trainer. She worked from the gate in the fog last Sunday. Professional maiden STASH THE CASH has been competitive since June, including a clear second in an identical spot behind a future repeat winner Sept. 28. NONPLUSULTRA is adding blinkers for the drop from OS/$40K company. SOUL N’ SPIRIT is logical for the lower rungs of the exotics.

SIXTH RACE

STOP THE HUMBUG awaited room along the inside on the far turn and then made a bid to lead before getting caught on the wire two weeks ago. That was his second straight strong showing on the inner turf under Contreras, who’s sticking with him. DENMARK is dropping from $25K maiden company, and should be a factor with the hot leading rider Da Silva taking over from Contreras. SPANISH MAJOR battled four-wide for the lead on the turn before tiring in a recent sprint. Use him underneath in the exotics, along with HUNGARY.

SEVENTH RACE

VIRGA went four-wide on the turn before finishing a lapped-on second among two next-out winners when claimed by McKnight Sept. 13. He’s worked fast leading up to this event, and is picking up the barn’s go-to rider Hernandez. RED FEVER had a fast pace to chase when a charging second on the drop to this level Oct. 2, when he got a Beyer comparable to the last one earned by the top pick. The win-shy CAT ZAPPER is changing surfaces off a third on the inner turf where he had an ideal trip.

EIGHTH RACE

HARPER P M was a hard-trying second last time in his second try against NW3 company when going three-quarters on the Tapeta. He finished a lapped-on second the last time he competed over seven furlongs, which was on the grass July 12. FROBISHER BAY is plunging from $25K to the lower ranks off a fade job, during which he got hung out four-wide on the turn in a pace battle. DANCING QUIETLY won his recent comeback vs. NW2 stock, and could take this field a long way if he shakes loose early. Use WHERE’S THE GOLD underneath in the gimmicks.