ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, SOFI’S GOLD

FIRST RACE

Evenly matched CABIN JOHN and DUKES UP top this small field of $25k claiming veterans racing one mile, the main difference is CABIN JOHN has more speed. The front-runner/pace-presser chased fast fractions last time and finished third at Los Alamitos. The splits should be less severe this race; he can win with a pressing trip outside the only other front-runner in the field. The late runner DUKES UP has an opposite running style. The veteran closer is 5-for-13 at Santa Anita, with four runner-up finishes. With the top recent figures, DUKES UP will vie for favoritism. KYLEMORE is the aforementioned pace rival for the top choice. KYLEMORE wired N3L claiming company early last month at Del Mar, was a subsequent vet scratch early this month, and now returns as the likely pacesetter. Speed is batting .333 in dirt miles this autumn at Santa Anita. Horses that led at every call won six of 18.

SECOND RACE

Notwithstanding her odds-on sixth last out, SOFI’S GOLD should handle this turf sprint for Cal-bred maiden 2-year-old fillies. She missed by only a neck two back, then last time out at 6.5 furlongs she forced a blistering pace and faltered in a race dominated by closers. The 1-2-3 pacesetters finished at the back. SOFI’S GOLD shortens to 5.5f and will try turf for the first time, which is fine. Progeny of Goldencents won 15 percent of all turf starts. The dam of SOFI’S GOLD is Heat Trap, a multiple turf-sprint winner/stakes-placed turf sprinter. Assuming ‘GOLD rations her speed more efficiently switching to Flavien Prat, she can make short work of this cast. Carla Gaines trains the favorite and first-time starter KATLA. The latter is a sibling to two multiple winners including allowance-caliber turf sprinter Mesut. Gaines-trained maidens typically race their way into racing shape, but the filly gets a seven-pound apprentice allowance and has some okay-looking works. ELGOFRANCO makes her career debut with modest works. The truth is, after the favorite, anything goes.

THIRD RACE

GOLDEN MELODIE dueled on a fast pace and tired

last out in a turf sprint; her first two races were decent efforts on dirt. ‘MELODIE drops in class to maiden-50, she will be on or near the lead facing this easier field, and gets the call to win with a forwardly placed trip. TACOCAT also drops in class, from maiden special-weight to maiden claiming. The up-front running style she tried in both recent speed-and-fade routes suggests she benefits by this shorter trip. Second-time starter ran okay after an imperfect takeoff in her debut; she is eligible to improve. WHITE VELVET did not away well in her debut, and finished fourth of five. Improvement like second time out. MISS KITNESS adds Lasix and drops in class for her second start. Upset candidate, perhaps?

FOURTH RACE

ZIPPER MISCHIEF is back doing what he has done best, which is sprint on turf. Runner-up by a neck at this Cal-bred N1X level two back, last out he set a strong pace at one mile before he tired to fourth. Actually a good effort setting fast fractions. The lightly raced colt is wheeling back on short notice, just 11 days, but he ran super this summer at Del Mar wheeling back in eight days. The fastest in the field, obvious choice, likely low odds. FIRST IN SHOW faces a class hurdle, up from $40k claiming 3-year-olds into a state-bred allowance vs. older. But he is fast, and returning as a fresh horse from a short layoff. From the outside post, he has the option to either set the pace or press in the clear. He got dusted at this level, on this course, in June. But this field is not as deep. PRAYER WARRIOR moves up the ladder seeking his third straight, moving from dirt to turf. This field is tougher than the $16k claiming 3yos he defeated last out, but he is a sharp horse going up the ladder. JOE JACKSON has run races that put him in the hunt. RINSE AND REPEAT will rally late.

FIFTH RACE

Back-to-back thirds by NIETZSCHE, who adds blinkers, gives him the edge in this maiden-30 for 2yos. His speed figure dropped slightly last time, but he actually ran better because he produced more early speed. I DUB THEE drops from Cal-bred maiden special-weight to open maiden-30. He also showed more early interest in his second career start, and figures to improve vs. this softer bunch. First-time starter MASTER RECOVERY debuts for trainer Hector Palma, who pops occasionally with firsters at a price. Palma also entered NONNO’S POLARIS. First-time gelding CODE GRAY has a right to improve.

SIXTH RACE

Claimed from a solid $32k claiming turf win last out at Del Mar, OF GOOD REPORT moves up to $50k claiming for excellent first-off-the-claim trainer Vladimir Cerin. The past five years, Cerin is 17-for-51 f.o.c. This field of 3yo claiming turf runners is better than the field ‘REPORT defeated last out, but the in-form gelding showed a liking for this course winning here in May, and can fire right back moving up the ladder. HARMON drops for the first time into the claiming ranks, after a synthetic surface allowance win against older at Golden Gate. Not sure about turf for the gelding, but his other surface speed figures suggest he fits with this cast. SWAMP SOUFFLE drops in class and figures as a contender based on his runner-up finish at this mile and one-eighth distance here in May. Suspect he is a better horse than his two Del Mar starts suggest.

SEVENTH RACE

ANUKET wheels back 19 days after a dazzling entrylevel allowance comeback in which she set blazing fractions (:21.49 and :44.29), and won by more than seven lengths. She worked in company with Grade 1 winner Roadster prior to her comeback, and was dead fit. That lessens the chance of a “bounce” second start back. The speed of the field, she could be gone. This is not an easy N2X, however. HARD

NOT TO LOVE, a one-eyed filly that won her first two starts before a troubled third in a stakes in May, returns from layoff of nearly five months. She has worked well under her new rider Mike Smith, she is expected to settle slightly off the pace and rally late. Her debut victory here in February shows that she runs well fresh. MADAME VESTAL continues to outrun expectations. Maiden winner at 7-1, allowance winner at 16-1, and stakes runner-up last out at 9-2, she will roll from off the pace. She finished first or second in all five starts. Look for her late. SHOW IT N MOE IT drops from G3.

EIGHTH RACE

DUBNATION drops from an okay third in a Cal-bred maiden-45-50, down to rock-bottom maiden-20. This is his first try at the bottom level; his numbers early this year would be fast enough. But this field has more depth than a typical maiden-20, and three others merit consideration. NORSKI takes a steeper drop than the top choice, from open maiden-40. NORSKI finished in the money six of eight, he will grind away late first try at the bottom. AN AMERICAN JET finished second last out, more than six lengths clear of third. GIT ON YOUR PULPIT also has run races fast enough for this bunch.