$100,000 Guaranteed Pick 5 Analysis

Woodbine Mohawk Park - 10/25/19

Race 6 – Breeders Crown 2YO Filly Trot

(4) DIP ME HANOVER was only racing for the third time in five weeks last time when she finished evenly in her elimination. She should be sharper here and she has already won a Grand Circuit race over this track in September; call to upset. (1) HYPNOTIC AM was taken down for the first time last week by (2) SISTER SLEDGE. Both are top class fillies that are hard to leave off this opening leg of the Pick 5. (10) RAMONA HILL was passively driven last week and now she draws the 10-hole, which puts her in an obviously tough spot. If you still like her, at least you know the price is going to be a lot better here.

Race 7 – Breeders Crown 2YO Filly Pace

(1) LYONS SENTINEL has been dynamite all year and she is unbeaten racing over this track. Tetrick should grab control of this race on the backstretch; top call. (4) NEW YEAR impressed last week grinding out a first-over win and she can provide some value to the Exacta here. (3) PRICELESS was also impressive but she was allowed to pace unchallenged on the lead the entire mile. You know that won’t happen here.

Race 8 – Breeders Crown 2YO Colt Trot

(9) REAL COOL SAM got up to keep his win streak alive at Lexington and while this will only be his third race in 6 1/2 weeks, the freshness factor likely plays to his favor this late in the year. He is strictly the horse to beat here. (4) AMIGO VOLO made a big recovery to make it into this final after breaking early as the odds-on choice in his elimination. That he has broke in two straight races is an obvious concern, but there is no doubting his talent. If he behaves, he should be right there at the wire. (8) CAPRICORNUS raced great here in the Wellwood Memorial and his speed and consistency should be respected in this spot. Having Tetrick in the bike is an obvious bonus for this colt and we probably haven’t seen his best race yet.

Race 9 – Breeders Crown 2YO Colt Pace

(7) TALL DARK STARNGER paced his slowest final 1/4 last week in the elimination, which makes me think he wasn’t fully cranked for that start. He should be sharper here and he can turn the tables on rival (3) PAPI ROB HANOVER, who is obviously very sharp and should be respected when making multi-race tickets. (5) CAPT MIDNIGHT had a great year, but he finished behind the two choices in the Metro; your call.

Race 10 –NW5 or $50,000 LT

(9) LYONS PEGASUS has been on fire. He takes the next logical step up here and he picks up Tetrick. A four-peat looms. (8) CLIFFHANGER can blast and sit a trip here and is one to look at as a possible upsetter. (7) JAY EYE EM beat elders at Flamboro Downs and he is another that I am going to use in the 20-cent Pick 5 ticket as a price option.

20 Pick 5 Ticket:

1,2,4,5,10 / 1 / 9 / 3,5,7 / 7,8,9 = $9