True Timber likely needed last start

The Breeders’ Cup is only about a week away now, but we don’t have to wait that long to see the 2019 Kentucky Derby winner in action.

“Winner,” in this case, is a watery term, since Maximum Security’s Derby win was taken away, for better or worse, by the Churchill Downs stewards. Maximum Security runs back for the first time since winning the Haskell Invitational when he starts as a heavy favorite Saturday in the Bold Ruler Handicap at Belmont, which also hosts an interesting edition of the $100,000 English Channel (more interesting if you think you can beat strong Chad Browntrained favorite Front Run the Fed) and the $100,000 Awad for 2-year-old grass horses.

Keeneland has the Fayette, which Tom’s d’Etat can win at a short price over Mr Freeze, while Santa Anita will warm up (not much warming needed with highs in the 90s late this week!) its turf course for Breeders’ Cup action with the Autumn Miss.

Bold Ruler Handicap

Maximum Security comes forth an automatic underlay to some extent because of the “1” at the end of his Kentucky Derby running line, but there is far more to his potential vulnerability in the Bold Ruler than just a question of backing short-priced favorites. The Bold Ruler is a handicap, not weight-for-age, and Maximum Security instead of getting weight from older horses is giving it to them in his first race outside straight 3-year-old competition. He also drew the rail as a confirmed front-runner in a race just loaded with pace elements, and there really are no good options for jockey Luis Saez unless Team Security thinks this is time to let their horse take some dirt and see how he finishes from behind rivals.

Prince Lucky has a much better draw on the far outside and has run several longer one-turn races fast enough to win this, but I suspect his odds will be driven below what I’d consider fair value given the limitations he’s shown.

True Timber could be the right value play in the Bold Ruler. He fell three lengths short of Prince Lucky in the Sept. 21 Kelso but knocked heads while racing between horses on a fast pace in a race he had to need for fitness while making his first start since a flat run in the Godolphin Mile this past March. True Timber’s best race, in the Cigar Mile last fall, came with the kind of stalking trip I’d love to see him get Saturday, and at his best he is every bit as good as Prince Lucky and as fast on the figures as Maximum Security.

Awad Stakes

One job I had for Daily Racing Form this fall was keeping track of 2-year-old turf horses while covering the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf division, and I kept wondering what trainer Tom Bush was going to do with Get Smokin, whose 77 Beyer Speed Figure was among the highest numbers the division has yielded so far this season. Well, here he is in the Awad.

Now, Get Smokin’s second-start maiden win on the stretch from a sprint to a oneturn route came in a New York maiden race restricted to horses with a capped auction price, but don’t make the mistake of thinking that was a poor race. The heavily favored runner-up, Fame to Famous, had finished third to subsequent Grade 1 Summer Stakes winner Decorated Invader in the With Anticipation at Saratoga and returned Oct. 16 to easily win a Belmont maiden race with an 83 Beyer.

Get Smokin was a bit headstrong early in his win, and though he settled down he still was the one closest to a leader who set fractions far faster than par. Despite running along at a strong clip down the backstretch and around the turn, Get Smokin still had a zippy punch when his rider asked him for run at about the three-sixteenths pole. He wandered a bit in deep stretch, but that only means he has things to correct and room to improve on this logical step up in class.

Autumn Miss

Now, I don’t believe Hidden Message is going to hit her 5-2 morning-line odds in the Autumn Miss, but I do believe in a bulky field with some horses who might attract some support she won’t be something like an odds-on favorite. But I do believe she should be. Her overseas form is rock solid and her strong closing second in her American debut, where she was beaten only by Cambier Parc, who has become the very best 3-year-old grass filly in North America, would absolutely swamp this group. Hidden Message hasn’t yet won a graded stakes, and you have to think her connections have targeted this race all along to change that.