ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, DOVEY LOVEY

FIRST RACE

MANDATORY debuted sprinting and was rated on the outside in the early stages, before getting floated wider to the stretch and then finishing up gamely to gain late ground into 3rd; half to Grade 1 Cotillion and Spinster (among other major dirt route races) winner I’m a Chatterbox rates to improve on the stretch out. FORZA DI ORO was overlooked in his career debut despite having some pedigree and he really outran his odds there after completely blowing the start; made a nice wide run to get back into contention and only flattened out late in a strong first out effort; tough to beat if he runs back to that, though he still has to get out of the gate. BOURBON RISING was out-paced a bit early in his sprint debut, then was keeping on gamely late to close some ground without threat to the top three in that spot; stretches out. BROTHER BRAD went long first time out at Monmouth and got a wide trip in that race before flattening out late, don’t love that race as a whole but he can do better for the experience.

SECOND RACE

American Pharoah has gotten off to a solid start at stud thanks to his progeny’s ability to handle turf (he has nine turf winners already and is 6 for 26 first time turf so far); his HOMELAND was purchased for $500k as a yearling and is a halfbrother to the talented NY-bred Bar of Gold, best known for winning the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint to end her career, but she was also a stakes winner on turf and an impressive three for three to begin her career as a 2yo. NEURO debuting for a trainer who is 2 for his last 43 with first time starters but Ribaudo does a very good job overall and this colt has pedigree being by Freud and a half-brother to the excellent turf horse Lover’s Key (8 career wins on grass, including a NY-bred stake, and over $275k in earnings). COLD HARD CASH needs some help to get into the race but he may be set to improve now after having his debut rained off and racing greenly in that race for 3rd; trainer excels with second time-starting maidens.

THIRD RACE

DOVEY LOVEY hasn’t been in good form lately and may not look like much overall, but she actually ran some nice races early in her career while facing better and was not always well served by trying to stretch out for her prior connections; needs to turn it around but may be able to do it off the claim for Atras as she lands in a race with plenty of speed to set her up. WISCONSIN NIGHT was last seen in February when dropped in class for the first time, only to speed clear on a quick pace first time in blinkers and then fade in the stretch; was claimed out of that race and now has to start back off the layoff in race with other speed, but she has the figures to be tough here and the outside draw helps her chances. ITS A CHANCE debuted for the tag in May and took money in that spot before speeding to the front and blowing that field away with a competitive figure; drops back down for the first time since after failing to be competitive with

FOURTH RACE

FREAKY STYLEY has settled for second-best in both starts to date, including that last one as a clear-cut favorite, but he also has earned two figures that stand out in this field; lack of early speed a concern at a short price but he is supposed to be hard to beat here. SEVEN IS HEAVEN hasn’t necessarily improved all that much since a very troubled debut suggested he might be okay, but he did finish a game 3rd two back after spending some time on a dead rail and he was shuffled in the early going last time, before rallying inside without threat. HOT BROWN showed speed in his debut but was quickly taken on by the eventual winner and was no match for him, while staying gamely for 2nd and outfinishing SEVEN IS HEAVEN; threat if he can build on that first run while showing the

same kind of speed.

FIFTH RACE

BOURBON WAR was a promising dirt horse early on but the thought of him switching surfaces was always there based on his pedigree, and he ran one of the best races of his career first time on turf in the Better Talk Now; was no real match for FRONT RUN THE FED in that spot but he did race a bit awkwardly in the stretch with his head cocked, before leaning in and bumping a rival, and he had a no-chance trip last time when wrangled back to last behind a slow pace; won’t be easy but he may be the right price in this race. FRONT RUN THE FED has won three in a row and backed up his big 98 Beyer win two back by pairing that number while showing that he could stretch out in the Better Talk Now at Saratoga; clearly the horse to beat. POWER PLAYER showed potential in his lone start as a 2yo when racing greenly and finishing a good 3rd in a very strong maiden race in California; took advantage on a rated pace off the layoff but was always finding in that win, and he won easier than it looks last time after rating and awaiting room until late in the stretch, before powering up to win.

SIXTH RACE

MALTHAEL has disappointed a bit overall, though he has not exactly been short prices in his races and he has been facing better while having had some trouble along the way, most notably in his first two starts back this year when in traffic at crucial points in the running; couldn’t find the excuse for him last time, at least not to be 2nd, but will give him one more chance over a distance that may work for him. Have been chasing TIBERIUS MERCURIUS for a while now and am likely getting off at the wrong time as he has been facing some good horses and doing his best without winning; changes trainers again and the slight cut back for this may do him some favors. BOX N SCORE a first time starter breaking from a tough post over this distance on the inner, as is fellow firster STARE DECISIS; BOX N SCORE a full-brother to turf stakes winner Season Ticket.

SEVENTH RACE

MAGIC STAR making just her second start but she is one to keep an eye on if her debut is any indication as she was always confidently ridden in that spot while leaving herself some work to do in the stretch, before easily running that field over without even appearing to try too hard; steps up with forward to go. ON THE TOWN hasn’t been as visually impressive as the top one was first up but she has improved from race to race and was dead game in her first start in this condition when pressured by eventual winner and odds-on favorite Malakeh from a long way out and never relenting; draws inside with new-found tactical speed but has to be ready off the layoff. FIERCE SCARLETT a stablemate of the top one making her second start back from the layoff after facing a pair of talented rivals last month (Nay Lady Nay returned to win a Parx stake with an 84 Beyer) and settling for 3rd; easily defeated ON THE TOWN last September when they were both just starting out and she still has room to improve.

EIGHTH RACE

DIAMOND KING has speed but is not the kind of brilliant horse that is going to blow fields away and he has been right there while mostly going longer than he prefers since starting out his career as a promising one-turn kind of horse; that was a good effort last time while engaged in a race-long duel with Coal Front but think cutting back and going one-turn is what he really wants, and he is likely going to be a price in this race. MAXIMUM SECURITY perhaps tenuously clinging to the top spot in the 3yo division after making only two starts since that controversial DQ in the Derby - one of those a second Grade 1 win in the Haskell; he is facing the toughest test of his career here after missing the Pennsylvania Derby with colic but has the kind of natual speed to suggest that this cut back is going to be no problem for him and his overall talent should no longer be questioned following five straight triple-digit Beyers. PRINCE LUCKY could also be entering this race with a string of 100+ Beyers were it not for a couple of excusable hiccups over the summer; hasn’t sprinted since 2017 but he is at his best around one-turn and is perfectly drawn outside for his preferred trip stalking in the clear; dangerous.

NINTH RACE

PIXELATE arrives light on figures after contesting a pair if slow-paced races over the summer at Arlington but thought he looked good in those efforts, the first when unable to make ground after rating off that easy pace, and the second when dominating maidens after sitting a nice trip in behind the lead; think he might be better than the figures make him look and this is the kind of race to keep an open mind about with several contenders. BUY LAND AND SEE made a promising late run going shorter in his debut, then stretched out and buried a field of maidens right on the front end on the Pennsylvania Derby undercard; has pedigree and talent for an excellent trainer. ME AND MR. C also has some pedigree backing him up for a dangerous trainer and will be a price; thought he received an indecisive ride in his debut, but he managed to overcome it to score convincingly in the end, and he had no chance when cut back to sprint last time but still finished up well; tough post but he is going to be a big price.

TENTH RACE

A LITTLE FAITH facing a cut back in distance that can be difficult on this surface but she has flattened out late in both recent starts routing after getting into the mix in the stretch; won pretty impressively first time out sprinting and may just be in the right spot here after facing much better for the level in her last two. DANCINGWTHDAF-FODLS has had a lot of chances but it has only been recently that they figured out that she is best sprinting on grass; will need a trip stepping back up but she is a contender here with her good race. AILISH has posted both wins to date when dropped in class but she just missed at this level last time and has proven herself to be a true turf sprinter for an excellent trainer.