ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, NOMINAL DOLLARS FIRST RACE

RETURN THE FAVOR has speed and gets a weight break and that should put her on the engine. Her form cycle hints at better. What we like best is her move from one turn to two. Her prior turf tries hint that two turns is what she does best. Of course, getting an early breather won’t hurt either. VICKY APPLE seems one paced going a one turn mile so maybe here is another that will appreciate two turns. Her local tries last year were solid and of course she is more mature now. Third off the layoff can’t hurt either. GOLDEN TIARA gets first Lasix and gets in light at 108 pounds. This filly did win easy only two back to break her maiden. Whoa, here is another that goes third off the layoff.

SECOND RACE

CONSILIUM tried two turns on the grass in his debut and that is always tough. One of three sibs won on the grass while the other two hit the board. Class drop can’t hurt but it is his work tab that we like the most. BUDGET BUSTER has tried nothing but the turf in his short career and has done nothing wrong in two starts. New barn is 33% off the claim. If we had to nit pick then we would say that this colt doesn’t have any speed. The one to beat nonetheless. MASPERO did beat 9 home in his most recent. He is quite consistent on the Beyer scale with back to back to back 44 figs. What if he moves forward with the switch to a different lawn? We do like his tactical speed especially with this post. He faces a lot of first time starters and none impressed us breeding-wise.

THIRD RACE

VINCERO exits a key race where 2 of 8 returned to win with Beyer speed figures of 91 and 94. Short rest is fine with us as this barn is 27% when returning a horse between 61-180 days. The gelding loves this dirt as he is a perfect 3 for 3 here. Tactical speed rounds out the appeal. MUSICAL HEART has solid figs on the dirt and comes in fresh and ready. It is always nice to see a local win. Two turns on the dirt is something new for him but his turf routes hint at two turn ability. CREATE AGAIN sheds the blinkers but still looks quickest to us. It is no surprise that his best tries have come with an early breather. New barn is 0 for 5 off the claim but the sample size is small.

FOURTH RACE

SMASH has yet to break well in three career starts. He adds a full furlong today and draws the attack post for the distance and we like that best. His last race came back key when 2 of 7 returned to win with figs of 78 and 68. This barn is 21% second off this type of layoff. MAKABIM get the quadruple whammy of first Lasix, first time gelding, blinkers OFF, and a weight break. We are not sure we have ever seen this before in our 20 years of public handicapping. New barn is 32% off the claim. Work tab is perfect. Seven furlongs isn’t easy off a layoff but otherwise a lot to like. GO UNCLE JOEZ GO is by a 11% debut sire. His dam missed the board in her only start. All 9 sibs won with 8 having beaten winners. This barn is 20% with debut maiden claimers.

FIFTH RACE

UNA LUNA has improved a ton as a 4YO. She should get a nice trip as we spy three with some speed in here. She got a then Beyer top on this sod last year. She has worked three times since her most recent. COLONELS DAUGHTER has won two of her last three. Her tries last year on this sod were quite good. Race flow is a plus and Zayas knows this filly well. TRILBY can pass runners. Lopez gets a leg up and he won when he last rode this filly (5 back). Any chance this filly didn’t like being inside in her most recent?

SIXTH RACE

FLAMING HOT ran well in his debut and draws outside again. All five sibs beat winners and four of them earned over 100K. He has worked since his debut and of course Rendon stays put. VIPER is by a 9% debut sire. His dam went 16-3-1-2 and earned 94K. Four of five sibs won with three having beat winners including a debut 2YO winner.

Works are well spaced and we bet the price will entice. ONE TURN JOHNNY did try stakes foes only two back. Perhaps seven panels was a tad far last out. This barn is 21% with their 2YO’s. CONQUER is by a 3% debut sire. His dam went 2-0-1-0 and earned $6,780. Lone sib is 7-1-3-1 for 80K. FRANCO’S TEAM is by a 17% debut sire. His dam went 20-6-5-3 and earned 245K (242K on the turf). Both sibs won including a multiple winner of 94K (86K on the turf). THE VIRGINIAN is by a 11% debut sire. His dam missed the board in six starts. Of 6 sibs to race, 5 won with 4 having beat winners (all 4 earned at least 65K).

SEVENTH RACE

FIVE STAR RECRUIT has some speed in a race with other speed but we think he can stalk some. He is a new turf horse. We like how he broke his maiden. Batista seems to get the best from this gelding. TANGIBLE wants to pass runners and gets good race flow. New barn is 22% off the claim. This colt has tried this lawn twice and has hit the exacta both times. GONE DIESEL gets in light and passed a runner last out at odds of 130-1. Why can’t he put good races together and at a big price?

EIGHTH RACE

Lots and lots of speed in this race. Is anyone other than NOMINAL DOLLARS proven around two turns on the dirt? His last two tries around two turns resulted in Beyers of 68 and 73. He will get a faster pace today than both of those races. Low percentage barn helps the price and we like that he tries this dirt for the first time (the horse not the trainer). NIGHTSTRINGS will get the jump on our top pick while he sits off all the speed. This post is no bargain though. Jock switch to Jaramillo is noted. SI ES GOYA did break his maiden on this dirt. Current form is fine but he is un-proven around two turns. He gets in light and win rider returns in Torres.

NINTH RACE

CREOLE CANDY is by a 18% debut sire (2YO’s only) and a 13% debut turf sire. His dam went 22-5-2-4 and earned 137K (15-5-1-4 on the grass for 130K, won turf debut). Two of three sibs won while both sibs to try the turf won on that surface. Lots and lots of works and they are well spaced. THE EXCEPTION ran a little better on the local sod last out as he beat half the field home. He has a good local try last summer as a 2YO. Musical jocks continues. A I INITIATIVE just missed last out on the big class drop. This barn is 3 for 10 second off this type of layoff. Maybe this gelding has a penchant for less and he does try a new sod today but he is still the absolute one to beat.