ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, DIXIE’S GAMBLE

FIRST RACE

POST TO POST finally graduated two weeks ago in her 14th start, which was her second consecutive good performance on the inner turf. She drew nicely on the inside, and could double up in this NW2 tilt on the inner. SHE’S A TRUE FOX beat out the top pick when earning her diploma from off the pace in her penultimate race. Throw out her last subpar showing going long on the Tapeta. GOLDMINE GLORY could take some catching, and there was a front-running winner on this course on Wednesday night.

SECOND RACE

FRITZIE’S BOY is dropping off a ground-saving fifth vs. $25K NW3 company, and should be dangerous in the third start of his form cycle. He sticks out on turf Beyers. GROUNDHOG DAY finished a lappedon third against tougher in his most recent turf excursion Aug. 23, and the Sam-Son cast-off was recently second on the Tapeta. CAPTAIN SIDNEY placed in each of his last three appearances at this level on the grass, and is a must-use underneath in the exotics, along with GASCONADE.

THIRD RACE

DIXIE’S GAMBLE has been eating Pink Lloyd’s dust, and could come to the forefront in this light OS stakes due to that champion’s absence. He put up 97 Beyer in a victorious peak performance in June, and could fire one of his better shots here off a freshening. MAGICAL MAN got away slowly before closing from a trailing seventh to win a recent second-level optional claimer with a career high 87 Beyer. Note that he won three in a row last fall. SILENT JIMMIE ended a drought when landing an N1X two back, and is coming off a belated fourth in a tough second-level optional event, from which the second and thirdplace finishers both exited to run big.

FOURTH RACE

TWOMANYSHOTS rallied for second in her encouraging opener on the Tapeta. The daughter of Not Bourbon is a half-sister to Gun Society, who won a maiden special for 2yos on the grass last weekend for owner/trainer Attfield. FAITH OVER FEAR has improved with each subsequent start, and nearly got the job done after setting soft fractions over a mile on the inner course most recently. BEACH BAR is dropping from open maiden special company while cutting back off a failed route experiment. VESPOLINA is another possibility.

FIFTH RACE

PALACE TWO STEP finished a clear second in her debut behind the imposing Artie’s Princess, who subsequently romped in a NW2 OS/$40K tilt with a 77 Beyer. QUEEN’S SPEED finished on the edges in her two outings vs. open maiden special company, and is adding blinkers for the turnback from 7 to 5 1/2 furlongs. SHOW SOME SKIN has worked quickly. She’s by the excellent 18% 2yo debut sire Souper Speedy, and is bred for stamina on the dam’s side. Use GIZMO FLASH on the bottom of vertical bets.

SIXTH RACE

FRENCH CHARM wound up second in both of her Tapeta starts, and shouldn’t be held off much longer. Three-quarters on the main track should suit her to a T. DISAPPEARING ACT closed for second while beating two next-out maiden special winners in a six-furlong maiden special on the lawn in her Sept. 1 opener. AMERICAN TAP came up empty after flashing early foot when bet down to 3-1 in her debut, a race she seemingly needed.

SEVENTH RACE

MAGIC SPELL had nowhere to go while boxed in through the stretch when a frustrated fourth in her latest. The consistent gray/roan has lots of speed to chase here after breaking from the outside under Hernandez. DANCING DOLL may have run back too soon last time when a non-threatening fifth behind several of these, which was two weeks

after her closing N1X victory over this course.

FOXXY BELLE put away the other speed last time en route to a lapped-on second behind Sanity when rebounding off a fade job going long.

EIGHTH RACE

CURLIN’S VOYAGE was herded out by front-runner Skygaze in the stretch in the G3 Mazarine, in which she was promoted from second to first by disqualification. She’s meeting easier Canadian-breds in another 1 1/16-mile stakes here, and is hard to go past on recent form and Beyer numbers. AVIE’S SAMURAI is stretching out with ample stamina in her pedigree, off a prominent third going 7 1/2 furlongs around two turns in an N1X on the inner turf. MERVEILLEUX graduated in her first two-turn start last out on the Tapeta. Hernandez replaces the departed Campbell on the Kevin Attard charge.

NINTH RACE

COPPER FOX is going back down to the level at which she was recently claimed following a frontrunning third for $40K on the Tapeta. With the rail in lane 4, she could make all the running in this six-furlong sprint on the main turf. BELLA FIGURA dropped a neck decision last time at a notch lower in her first try off a $15K claim. HASSAH won the latter turf sprint coming from well off the pace at 25-1 under Chernetz, and has a little less ground to work with this time.

TENTH RACE

CHEEKYLICIOUS dominated $7.5K maidens last time over the 6 1/2-furlong distance of this NW2 contest, and has since worked a quick five-eighths. HEART RUSH has been coming close in turf sprints at this level under leading rider Da Silva. Her synthetic track record isn’t bad. PEGGY’S COVE is dropping from $15K NW2 company, while changing surfaces and cutting back in distance. Use J M R BOLD VISION in the lower rungs of the exotics.