ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, LAYLA NOOR

FIRST RACE

BLACKBERRY LISA debuts for 12.5X the published purchase price and is bred to like this 7f trip. Granted, the KEE strip has been yielding quick work times for a couple months but this filly’s work patter still encourages. Local barn been sending live runners this meet since opening weekend and this is the jock that’s been on the best-meant of them. MISS FIRECRACKER paceand-fade for 3X this tag making career debut last out and just might be able to establish a clear early lead this time in short field. Perhaps we’re about to find out why HERCULINA debuts on dirt rather than turf, but the question does pop right out given works, pedigree. Also, you pay a premium betting W Ward-trained first-timers at KEE,

SECOND RACE

Maybe because it’s a “boutique meet” but the claiming races this fall at KEE (my first as analyst) seem unusually and consistently murky - this one being no exception. HIGHLAND LASS is claim-anddrop for Diodoro / M & M but only down $10K off the tag they paid and connections make money if she wins and is claimed. Sub-par run last time, worked back 28 days after that start, then didn’t work for five weeks - either there are / were some nagging issues of the barn just took it’s time getting her into their program. Could easily have sought a better price but wound up deciding she’s well meant. LUNA FORTIS is up $10K in price off a claim by trainer who had Highland Lass before the claim. Like when new connections have a specific plan for a claim, in this case the cut back from longer races to a 6f sprint. FULL OF GRACE down to lowest level with CBY performances that fit the spot. Trainer Mac Robertson six for last 12 with blinkers on, the kind of stat that’s simultaneously useful and sure to regress to a mean at some point soon enough.

THIRD RACE

STREET READY didn’t finish as fast as PREFECT in their respective last-start, second-out turf-route maiden wins but the pace in Street Ready’s race was much truer than in Prefects, where nearly everyone came home quick off a dawdling halfmile split. Street Ready worked back a few days quicker and might have beaten a better runner-up in his race than Prefect did in his, though thirdplace Templet (out of the Prefect race) was a decent second Wednesday at IND. Tough call. KID MERCURY finished 9th in the Bourbon but actually ran all right from a tough draw.

FOURTH RACE

Catalano and owners G & M West have coupled entry of Hidden Talent and PROUD NATION but I’ll guess Hidden Talent gets scratched and Proud Nation is the live one for this $50K maidenclaimer. With the three starts and two long layoffs and a nothing showing over the winter in most recent start, he’s the sort of horse with underlying ability you could take an edge with for a high tag and not worry too much about losing if you didn’t want him claimed. Very lively drills. MACHO JACK held well for fourth and was but one length out of second in a race won by 6 1/2 lengths. Ran well, too, considering bump at the start and rush into a decent pace. Worked back three times and it’ll be surprising if he doesn’t have a say. GROVE DADDY out of same race as Jack and was badly outrun early before passing a few pace casualties. Still not going to be able to keep up with a legit sprint pace but he can do better than the last one second start back from extended vacation.

FIFTH RACE

There are barns, like K McPeek’s, that “never win with first-timers” — until they do. No one in this MSW field has a better win-early dirt-sprint pedigree than MY MAN FLINTSTONE, who, based at

KEE, has posted quick work times all along. Well drawn to deploy speed if he has it. BREEZY MONEY by a hot young sire and was fastest of 60 half-mile breezes when working from the gate in penultimate drill for debut. Ought to be a decent price. WELLS

BAYOU also has encouraging work pattern debuting for 21-percent first-out trainer Cox. Maybe the pedigree will turn out to be meaningless here but it’s not geared toward debut dirt-sprint success.

SIXTH RACE

EVERY SINGLE DAY, from same owner-trainer as UAE Derby winner Plus Que Parfait, ran into sharp filly Walking Thunder debuting in Dubai last winter and turned in a commendable performance Sept. 15 in her second start and US debut. Winner of that race a Juddmonte homebred for Mott who won nicely and runner-up returned to capture a KEE MSW with a 78 Beyer. Ran like she’ll appreciate the two-turn trip and bred for it, too. PINK SCATILLAC put away two pace rivals (both of whom finished more than 10 lengths behind her) before getting swooped upon by going-away winner (who came back with a solid second behind competent filly Der Lu in a 10/6 SA allowance) when second in a DMR MSW her only other dirt route. Assume she’s using that speed from rail. HEAVENLY SIS’s owner and trainer were DQ’d from an Iowa Derby win this past summer and have come up with any number of capable young horses the last couple years. No surprise if this filly outruns her odds.

SEVENTH RACE

Was wavering on LAYLA NOOR at a presumably short price until fully processing blinkers added to horse who looks like she could really benefit from that equipment change. Just didn’t show much last year at age 3 and evaluating mainly on 2019 form, which is rock solid vis a vis this allowance spot. COCO CHANNEL might prefer more distance than even this 1 1/8 miles but was only 1 1/4 lengths behind the top pick last out at KD and at distance shorter than her best was a fine second over the local lawn to talented (if ultimately disappointing this year) Environs during KEE April meet. DELTA’S KINGDOM was more visually impressive in her last start than the speed figure. Can’t help noticing jock that rode her to win lands on With Dignity, who seems less qualified here, but don’t pretend to know the why of any of that.

EIGHTH RACE

Odds-on OFF THE RECORD took a serious stumble (jock not far from coming off) breaking from rail last out at BEL. Part of the reason he was such a short price there was his race at SAR, which was a strong heat generally and in which he led and raced only two paths off a rail during a day when showing speed was a huge negative and far outside paths were strongly preferred. Won debut well enough, albeit in off-the-turf race, and has thrown down three lively KEE drills. Comfortably rates as most likely winner of this dirt-sprint allowance. UBER KIRK was only a nose out of second in a race earlier this meet at the same level and distance that was dominated by the heavy Chad Browntrained favorite, Honest Mischief. Win-capable if things fall his way. BOTERO working for first start in Cox barn with their IND string and interesting they send the horse to KEE for the start.

NINTH RACE

Here’s hoping TOM’S D’ETAT’s career-dragging issues are generally behind him. Mention that because he didn’t take long after Woodward to get back on a steady work pattern, and that’s definitely not always been the case with this 6yo. As for the Woodward, yes, he was fourth, but what a performance that was. On paper it looked like he’d be no worse than second around the turn and down the backstretch but a flat-footed break stuck him out in no-man’s land nd and he wound up losing ground on both turns, still battling hard til the end. Has led sometimes and feel like he’s better with a target, and with MR FREEZE drawn immediately to his inside, he should have one without going too fast. MR FREEZE is a little bit light on performances truly validating his two peaks, the WV Derby of 2018 and his most recent start, second race back from a long layoff, but the hope is he’s priced accordingly. If he can shake loose on the lead and get into a good steady gallop, could be tough to run down. THE GREAT DAY’s N American starts have been turf and Tapeta but he’s a twotime Argentine G1 winner on dirt.

TENTH RACE

That wasn’t some phantom late close from DEANOS CAPE in career debut and only start so far Sept. 22 at CD. Once he found his stride past the threesixteenths pole he really lengthened and finished well, quickly galloping out past the winner. Cost a mere $8K despite being a good enough sire and out of stakes-winning dam. Armchair jockeyologists will note the switch to a rider with home trainer C Hartman has combined to produce boxcar ROI from most recent sample of starters, CARDIAC KID was 5-2 last time when second in a CD turf-route MSW and might be favored here. His debut wasn’t bad and maybe he moved a touch early last time, but not sure how much upside exists right now. Doubt BYE BYE MELVIN’s career debut at SAR is especially representative and he lost much too much ground last out at LRL.