ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, PRINCESA CAROLINE

FIRST RACE

UNDEFEATED shows up with some good works for a trainer having a nice year with his 2yos and particularly liked that 47.3 breeze on 9/29 where he was taken back early before finishing strong to run down a workmate; Uncle Mo colt has a versatile pedigree and there is some class in this family, including Tale of the Cat, Preach and Pulpit. BREITHORN draws an outside post for his debut but he is by a top sire and hails from a top Juddmonte female family; Mott has also had an excellent year with his juveniles. KINENOS was slow from the gate out lacked speed early in his debut, before coming wide and racing on late to get 3rd in a useful effort; don’t love that race overall but the winner could be pretty good and this colt could easily improve enough to be tough here.

SECOND RACE

BEARS MAFIA improved on dirt earlier this year and broke through when dropped in for the price at Saratoga in August; paired up competitive 73 Beyers in his last two starts vs. better and will appreciate getting back to this level for his second start off the claim. BOURBON N RYE disappointed early in his career but appreciated the class drop when burying maidens in the mud with a 79 Beyer, then contested a solid pace in the slop and settled for second-best while dropping back down when last seen in March; appears to have a pace advantage in this race, assuming he is ready off the bench. DR. DEVERA’S WAY has improved in his last two starts, though bith of those races came over wet tracks; threat if he can keep it going as he takes a bit of a class drop.

THIRD RACE

This second-level allowance features an intriguing matchup between a pair of stakes-quality 3yos in INSTAGRAND and COMPLEXITY, both entering this spot when some questions to answer. INSTAGRAND was last seen bombing as the favorite in the Pat Day Mile on the Derby undercard, but he was a short price there for a reason and he may ultimately just be best suited to sprinting.

COMPLEXITY was impressive winning his first two starts as a 2yo, including the Grade 1 Champagne right on the front-end, but he gave way readily in last year’s Juvenile, and he did not run well in his lone start so far this year, tough spot or not; has big speed from the rail, but that is also INSTAGRAND’s game. ARTHUR’S HOPE an underrated NY-bred who put up a triple-digit Beyer two starts back sprinting at Parx; can go with the top two when they are at their best, but they may be vulnerable here.

FOURTH RACE

PRINCESA CAROLINE didn’t take that much money first time out considering she is trained by Chad Brown and is a half-sister to the great Lady Eli, but that mattered not once the gates opened as she confidently stalked the pace and then powered clear in the stretch en route to a dominant maiden win; steps right up with forward to go. ENOLA GAY won the slightly-faster division of 2yo filly MSW events at Kentucky Downs last month while kicking on strongly in the stretch off a perfect trip, and her race was also a full second faster than a colt division over the same distance; well-connected filly has a big pedigree and looked good winning first up, good trip or not. ENGLISH BREEZE was a convincing winner first time out over fellow NY-breds and she backed that race up well when finishing a close 3rd in the P. G. Johnson while having to shift ground in the stretch to look for room and coming up just short; needs a trip from her outside draw but but she fits well here.

FIFTH RACE

KID BOURBON made an early-season debut at Gulfstream and showed some promise there in a race he appeared to need; returned from the layoff last month and improved to finish a game 3rd in a race that came back very fast; stretches out with the pedigree to handle it. Perhaps SPICE ROAD has underachieved a bit - he has been defeated three times as the favorite - but he was disqualified once (justifiably) in a race where he ran well, was a poor

3rd after that over a distance that, despite his pedigree, simply may not be what he wants right now, and he was against a strong inside track last time when unable to get to repeat winner Mubarmaj; dangerous here but won’t get many more chances. ONE EYED JACK debuted in a very strong race back in June and that looked like a good place to start for this well-bred colt, who then stretched all the way out for his second start; don’t love the horse he was easily defeated by at Saratoga but he was held up behinds horses around the turn, before racing on gamely without threat in the stretch to be a clear 2nd.

SIXTH RACE

WADADLI PRINCESS is going to need at least some pace to develop here as she returns from a 153-day layoff, but she showed some promise early on with two wins and three runnerup efforts from her first five dirt starts; landed in a paceless Bouwerie when last seen and couldn’t get into it while coming wide as the 1-2 finishers rode the rail. SUNSHINE GAL needs everything to go her way in order to win this race, but there is a chance that this pace turns out to be more than fair and she has run better than it looks on several occasions vs. some good horses; taking a positive view on horses like her and the experienced and hardhitting HAY FIELD in this spot, and leaning against the more upwardly-mobile runners like BANK EXAMINER and CASH OFFER.

SEVENTH RACE

MAJESTIC REASON lacks the credentials of her main rivals in this spot but she keeps improving for Motion and exits a game effort for 3rd in the Gallant Bloom where she was gaining all the way behind a pair of legit graded stakes-quality mares; think she can handle this distance and may have timed it right vs. her more accomplished rivals, some of whom are not entering this in top form. PHILANTHROPIC ran well first time out as a 2yo while nearly overcoming traffic to win, and she has clearly taken a step forward since returning as a 3yo with a trainer change to Servis; has thoroughly dominated weaker in her two starts this year and her speed should play in this race. CHALON the most accomplished mare in this field and the class relief may be all it takes as she elects not to return to the Breeders’ Cup, where she was a big 2nd last year; exits a poor performance at Keeneland last time and this is not her best distance, but she is tough in here with her good race.

EIGHTH RACE

LEMON ZIP has much to prove in a race like this but her improved form since being stretched out in distance is hard to overlook; easily handled weaker two back before returning six days later to just miss with a game late run in the Japan Cup, and she has brought her good race to NY already this year. PAMINA has a distance question still to answer but she ran better than it looks over this trip in the Flaming Page when getting a bad ride and losing her best chance while getting shuffled to last around the turn; prefer her upside to the established form of some of the others. LADY MONTDORE took her first two stateside starts last year, including the Glens Falls when loose on an easy pace, and hasn’t won since, though she is getting some significant class relief for this; did her best to battle on to mid-stretch last time vs. a much better field and her speed makes her dangerous vs. this kind of field.

NINTH RACE

HIGH SCHOOL CRUSH debuted at this level last month and stumbled at the start after brushing the gate to wind up down inside at the back early; finished gamely late while unable to catch the leaders late but she figures tough if she can build on that effort. WELSH GOLD debuted in a tougher field at Saratoga and was on a wide chase from the start before tiring in the stretch; drops. CRUISING STRONG took a game run at class-dropping winner Tequila Fog first time out and duel that rival all the way down to the wire, before just failing first time out; right back in a similar spot off the claim.