ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, CLASSY BEAST

FIRST RACE

BELLA BELLA has some back class and gets back to the turf. She can sit a decent enough trip and perhaps those PID lines help her price some. She gets in light and is a hard trier on the green. CHA CHA HEELS ran back to back 78 Beyers only 4 and 5 back. She gets to save all the early ground and win rider Rendon returns (rode the last time this mare won five back). LILLIE’S HEAT is the speed, right? We think the 2 has some speed but that this 3YO filly is still quickest. Second time this sod can’t hurt and she goes third off the layoff.

SECOND RACE

DIXIELAND HUMOR has a grinding style with decent figs so today’s added half furlong might help her more than anyone. Second time this dirt is a favorite of ours and she draws nicely while not stuck on the rail. Race flow is more than fair. STORMY BOSS puts races together for the first time. She drops in class and gets a rider switch. BELLA GIANNA gets in ultra light and has some speed. She draws outside main pace foes. Added half furlong helps theft chances and she might like this dirt.

THIRD RACE

DINNER AT FIVE has solid turf breeding. She tried two turns and the turf for the first time last out and ran 3rd beaten only 2 1/2 lengths. Even better is the fact that she was right there with a furlong to go before tiring a tad. She should improve second time everything. Don’t forget about the weight break and good post. MUDSLIDE WICKED will try and be the speed of the speed. Lone turf try two back was solid as is her turf breeding. Main knock is whether she can put four good races together all while trying two turns for the first time. An early breather is now key. FAST FRACTION is by a 18% debut sire and a 11% debut turf sire. Her dam went 11-3-3-0 and earned 93K (5-1-2-0 on the grass and banked 42K). This is dam’s first foal. A two turn debut on the grass is very tough but this filly has a ton of works and lures Zayas.

HACKLETON ran great second off a layoff three back when beating open claimers. Now he goes second off the layoff while facing open claimers. This barn is 23% second off this type of layoff. This gelding’s last race came back key when 2 of 4 returned to win with Beyer speed figures of 90 and 73 (another finished 2nd with a 71 figure). COLORMEPOMPOM goes for a new barn that is 39% off the red tag. Local tab is fine at 6-0-2-1. His last race was a tad better. LOVE TREE likes this dirt. His last race came back key when 2 of 7 returned to win with figs of 83 and 87. The Walder barn is 20% going route to sprint and on the dirt. A recent work is noted.

FIFTH RACE

CLASSY BEAST ran evenly in his debut at 5/2. He draws more outside today. One of two sibs is a multiple winner of 171K (14-2-2-3). The Fawkes barn is 23% with their second time starters. This filly has a recent work and is all set to improve. HEIRESSINDY did beat 9 home in her debut at 5/2. This is dam’s 1st foal. Trainer stats are solid across the board wit the best being their 31% mark with special weights. KOZY DREAMS is by a 20% debut sire (all sire stats are for 2YO’s only). Her dam went 27-4-5-7 and earned 140K. Lone sibling is 15-1-0-2 for 15K. Lots and lots of works. SHOUG is by a 20% debut sire. Her dam went 10-1-0-0 and earned 31K. This is her first foal. MRS. MINIVER is by a 0 for 10 debut sire. Her dam went 45-4-7-8 and earned 105K. This is her first foal.

SIXTH RACE

MIA’S BOBTAIL might just be better going two turns on the grass. She cuts back a half furlong, draws inside, and goes for a 19% turf barn. MI KARLITA found herself way off the fast early pace in her last two starts but didn’t spit the bit and rallied nicely. She won’t be that far back today and gets to save all the early ground from her rail draw. CHARGE IT JENN has run better in two of her last three grass starts. Sanchez gets a leg up and he is 25% for this barn here. Tactical speed helps the trip.

SEVENTH RACE

DANCIE won when last seen going seven furlongs and got a Beyer top in the process. Works are well spaced and the layoff isn’t that long. This mare has only run poorly twice. Once on the turf off a layoff at Tampa and the other four back at GP. After the latter she wasn’t seen for 9 months so maybe something went awry in that race. She is a hard trier that figures a square price. YES FACTOR can fire fresh. Don’t believe us? She won her debut and then tied her Beyer top off a layoff three back. The Pompay barn is 26% off a medium layoff. Oh, said winning debut came on this dirt. BELLA CIAO is a graded stakes horse. Works are well spaced. Other than a chalky price, the main knock is that this barn is only 4% off a long layoff. Plus, seven panels off a long layoff is a tough return distance.

EIGHTH RACE

VINTAGE KITTEN did beat half the field home in his debut. Plus, it was a turf route. This is dam’s first foal. As expected, turf breeding is very good. Class drop may scare some but trainer Michael Maker is 20% going special weight to maiden claimer. HARDACTTOFOLLOW did little in his debut but he broke 9th of 10. He got what he needed in race experience. We like that connections waste little time finding him a turf route. This barn is 19% on the grass and show a flat bet profit. EXATLON was stuck in the 12 hole previously and he was trying two turns and the turf for the first time. His turf breeding is quite good (347 turf Tomlinson). He is deserving of another shot and we like that connections wanted a turf route right back. Plus, he draws much better. INDEPENDENT SON is by a 17% debut turf sire. His dam went 1-0-0-0 on the green. Lone sibling is a full sibling that missed the board in only turf start.