ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, KARSAVINA

FIRST RACE

BRING IN DOWN DA HOUSE is by a 15% debut sire. His dam went 16-3-6-1 and earned 40K. Of 8 sibs to race, 7 won with 5 having beat winners including a full sibling. Works are solid. CENTRAL PARK went favored in his debut even though he was trying two turns on the grass which is incredibly tough. Then he got washed off the green in his second start. Is this a sprint prep for something longer on the green? His last two local works are just fast. FLORIDA TWO STEP has some speed but so does the 4. This gelding seems capable off a layoff. SWAMP’N AIN’T EZ is by a 7% debut sire. His dam went 12-2-1-3 and earned 48K. Of 7 sibs to race, 5 won with all 5 having beat winners. We spy 3 that earned over 100K including a debut 2YO winner. JAY LOST CONTROL exits a key race where 3 of 5 returned to win with figs of 67, 59, and 49.

SECOND RACE

BANZE NO OESTE returned off a long layoff and was sent off at 7-1. He actually ran OK to finish third. He adds a full furlong today and is primed to improve. This barn is 21% second off this type of layoff. DAPIRATE shipped and won which isn’t easy coming from New Mexico. He didn’t get much pace to chase either. Maybe something has clicked for him and this barn is 26% with their repeating winners. J SERINO faced 10 foes last out and beat all of them but one. A very good try and now he goes second time this dirt. He has won at this distance before and draws quite nicely. Don’t forget that he has some speed.

THIRD RACE

FRANKIE MACHINE drops in class and tries this dirt for the second time. Current form is very good and he has won at a flat mile before. A small knock in that this barn is only 6% sprint to route. SWEET IDI might like it here if his most recent is any indication. Second time this dirt can’t hurt. Main knock is that claiming off Mac Robertson can be tricky. MUNNYCANTBUYMELOVE just ran a Beyer top. He wants to pass runners and gets some pace to chase. A better price than a few of these. TOTALITY is solid but we think he needs a race.

FOURTH RACE

APRIL’S LADY DI figures a good trip off the speeds of which we count at least three. This barn is 1 for 1 off a medium layoff. This horse has four works and that should be enough going 5 1/2 furlongs. LINE OF GRACE is another that figures a solid stalking trip. She won off her last layoff three back. Local tab a bit worrisome at 4-0-0-1. NOT THAT I RECALL has some back class. She likes this dirt as she is an exacta participant in 9 for 16 starts. Lots and lots of works and we like Hernandez with closers

FIFTH RACE

CEE’S JOY comes in fresh and switches barns to Chambers. Works are well spaced. This mare draws nicely and gets Stevens. This 9YO is a hard trier that likes this turf. OCEAN DREAM gets back to turf routing something she has won three times doing. Race flow is only average so no help there. Those open races at Cby 2, 3, 4, and 5 back are all solid. UH OH SEVEN does have some speed so maybe connections gun. This filly did beat first time winners five back. Turf breeding is solid but grass tab is 6-0-0-0. Of course all of those tries came before she got better. SHOELESS JACKSON exits a key race where 2 of 7 returned to win with figs of 56 and 49.

SIXTH RACE

FOREVER THE CHIEF made a nice middle move last out and was right there with a furlong to go before tiring a tad. Now he goes second time this dirt and figures more acclimated now. This barn is 23% with their route runners. UNFAILING has some speed and drops in class. He never got a breather last out. What if he is better with a target? FORTUNE OF WAR came here and dropped in class for Diodoro and won nicely as the chalk. New barn is 0 for 2 off the claim but otherwise trainer stats are quite good. Back class is hard to miss and connections find a logical spot off the red tag.

SEVENTH RACE

SETTLE DOWN EILEEN just loves it here. Form cycle hints at better, she draws nicely, is versatile, and is your logical favorite. MISS N WILDCAT chased our top pick around the track last out but will be a much better price. Added half furlong helps? RYDERROO has a penchant for less hence today’s placement. TRINNI exits a key race where 3 of 6 returned to win with Beyer speed figures of 60, 57, and 65.

EIGHTH RACE

KARSAVINA tried the grass once and ran a then Beyer top even though she was facing the boys. Her turf breeding is solid as is her route breeding. She finds her easiest spot to date. We spy four local works to have her ready. LESEDI just won on this sod. This barn is 7% with their repeating winners but the sample size is only 15. This filly has hit the exacta on this sod in five of six starts. That Emerald try two back was solid. Maybe this filly is just feeling great right now. DIANKA owns the best last race Beyer in this race. Race flow is good and Stevens knows this filly well.

SCRATCH BOARD

Here are the horses entered today who have been scratched in the last 45 days and have not raced since the scratch. Definitions: Off the turf: Turf race switched to main track. Trainer: Any scratch made by a trainer, including ones for weather, medical issues, a decision not to run in a stakes race, a horse entered back the next racing day, or a conditional entry (i.e., main track only for a turf race). Vet: Injury or illness. Steward: Administrative issues like medication and eligibility.