ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, ALFRED

FIRST RACE

FOLLOW MY LEAD is plunging to the lower conditioned ranks off a double-digit loss against NW3 OS/$40K stock on the grass. His previous form was pretty decent, and he doesn’t have much to beat in this $7.5K Tapeta route. THEREALQUAFF figures to be a speed threat under Contreras, who was aboard for both of his triumphs last year and is 1 for 9 at the meet for the barn. HYTHE rallied for a share in four of his last five outings, all on the grass. Under him underneath in the gimmicks, along with COOLSHADE.

SECOND RACE

ALFRED is getting some class relief following a layoff for his local debut, and could improve dramatically in his first start as a gelding. The son of the hot Munnings has been working on the Tapeta at Fair Hill for a trainer who’s 3 for 6 here this year when using Hernandez. DIFFERENT DAYS battled three-wide for the lead on the turn before fading to third when descending to this price from maiden special company in his latest. TRINITY THUNDAH romped in a recent sprint at this price before getting disqualified for interference at the break. He’s bred for the task at hand.

THIRD RACE

DISTINCT PASSION couldn’t hack it at the first allowance category, but his speed could be considerably more effective in this five-furlong optional starter. SOUPER FLY OVER has been shopping around for the ideal spot, and may have found it here going a distance that should be suitable for him. PERFECT FORESTER is dropping to a new seasonal low while changing surfaces. His former stablemate, HITTERS PARK, merits consideration off the Drexler claim.

FOURTH RACE

CUMMINGS ROAD has won two in a row, most notably a two-turn tilt on the inner turf most recently. He’s dropping back down to the basement, and should be a closing threat in his second try off the claim. KAPELLMEISTER faded to fifth

after setting a fast pace last time when going long in an all-gray/roan $25K starter handicap. RED

FEVER is dropping from $7.5K and picking up leading rider Da Silva, who won six races last Sunday.

FIFTH RACE

ADMIRALS COVE nearly got the job done in a Sept. 29 optional starter over this distance on the Tapeta, which ended his two-race win streak in a pair of low-level turf events. ROCKET PLAN pressed a sleepy pace before flattening out in the final sixteenth on the inner turf Oct. 20. The versatile 6yo has been effective coming from mid-pack in races with honest fractions. BADJEROS BOY rallied for second last time in his debut for Drexler, who has solid numbers second-time off the claim. LAPOCHKA is also in with a chance.

SIXTH RACE

CONSTANTINO notched his 13th win in his penultimate start at this level, and is coming off a hardtrying second in an optional starter. The flashy chestnut is a standout Beyer-wise if you ignore the 78 earned by DOT’S VISION in a narrow loss at a notch lower going 7 1/2 furlongs around two turns on the inner turf Oct. 13. FROBISHER BAY could join the fray off a $7.5K claim and a front-running victory over NW3 opposition.

SEVENTH RACE

SANDRETTI broke a bit slowly before closing wide for second when he got back on track with Stein aboard for the first time Sept. 27. He’s worked twice leading up to this engagement. GET THE NEWS is dropping sharply off a fade job vs. $25K NW2 rivals, to where he figures to be a serious speed threat. HEDEMAN and HARDY CANDY are candidates for the lower rungs of the exotics.

EIGHTH RACE

BREAD CRUMBS is shortening up and dropping, while adding blinkers and changing surfaces. His trainer struck with a long-priced turnback on the Tapeta last Saturday. STASH THE CASH battled four-wide for the lead on the turn en route to a nose loss when second for the third straight time in his latest. MAXIMUM SENTENCE got away slowly before closing for fourth behind the latter in his improved second trip postward Oct. 25. SOUL N’ SPIRIT could rally for a minor prize.