ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, GRANDPA LOUIE

FIRST RACE

Two turns is a long way for HARTEL, but the controlling speed nonetheless gets the call in this turf mile for $40k claiming 3-year-olds. He actually ran a winning race last out at Santa Anita when he set a strong pace in a mile turf race, opened up and got collared late by a rival that rallied from last. Despite losing ground in the stretch his four previous turf routes, HARTEL is the one to catch and the one to beat. (Handicapping note: rails-at-30 feet did not provide a significant advantage during summer, pacesetters won only 3 of 11 turf miles with the turf rails at the outermost setting.) SWAMP SOUFFLE defeated three of these last out at a mile and one-eighth. One mile is fine for the stretch-runner. OF GOOD REPORT cuts back to his preferred mile distance, while MYSTERY MESSENGER has an upset chance. He finished sixth last out in his first try against winners, but he actually finished well (:35.86 final three-eighths).

SECOND RACE

This $8k claiming route for fillies and mares is a scramble. LOVE OF ART won two of her last five main-track routes, ran well at Del Mar during summer, and now returns to SoCal following an okay fourth on turf. Northern California-based trainer Rene Amescua has started only a handful of runners at DMR, this would be his first DMR win since 2001. HEART’S PASSION stretches to two turns after a respectable third-place sprint comeback. CONFORMATION enters with the highest last-start speed figure, a 66 Beyer earned winning a slow-pace, four-runner N2L claiming route at Santa Anita. That mile race was timed in 1:42.73 (thirdslowest of fall meet). MAJESTIC DIVA once was good enough; CEE SAM’S GIRL fits off her thirdplace finish here in August; IPRAY is a 10-for-47 veteran seeking a return to form. This race is tough.

THIRD RACE

First-time starter BEGUILED, sired by Orb and a sibling to G1 Santa Margarita winner Fault, makes her debut with a solid workout pattern for trainer Phil D’Amato. Progeny of this sire win at a 13-percent rate (normal); D’Amato first-time start

ers on turf can fire, this filly’s gate works at San Luis Rey suggest she is ready. VENETIAN HARBOR also debuts with sharp workouts. Sired by Munnings (16 percent debut winners per Thoro-Graph), she is trained by Richard Baltas. Although maidens trained by Baltas typically race their way into condition, the presence of Flavien Prat, and fast works at SLR, suggest ‘HARBOR could come out firing. First-time starter SPEECH worked a bullet half from the gate last week at Santa Anita. Also-eligible LIGHTHOUSE disappointed as the favorite in her debut; she can improve from that third-place finish.

FOURTH RACE

Freshened three months, working well, and optimistically spotted in a starter allowance from which she cannot be claimed, TIZANILLUSION gets the call. Her claiming wins in January at Santa Anita would be fast enough, she runs well fresh. D’S LOVELY SOPHIA returns to preferred footing, which is dirt (two wins, two seconds from four starts on dirt). The two best races of her career were at DMR in summer, she has a versatile running style and figures as one of the deserving favorites. TAPITHA BONITA is fast enough when she fires, she benefits by the cutback to one turn after prepping in a route. Not sure if the DMR surface is her preferred footing, however. ETERNAL ENDEAVOR crushed easier in her comeback; the figures say she is fast enough to compete in this $32k claiming starter.

FIFTH RACE

Another perplexing race, this is a $25k claiming turf mile, non-winners of two lifetime. RED BUNTING gets the call dropping to her lowest class level yet. She ran well both starts on this course in summer (third, off-slow eighth), and she actually finished okay last out (:23.56 final quarter). SABURAI also drops to the lowest class level offered on DMR turf, following a respectable third last out against better company. UNTOUCHED ELEGANCE returns from a five-month layoff with races last fall and winter that put her in the hunt. Baltas won with 6 of his last 21 turf routers off three months or more. SUPER BUNNY misfired in her comeback, her maiden win here in summer puts her in the hunt. This race is very difficult.

SIXTH RACE

STACKIN SILVER drops to maiden-50 after he chased and tired in a highly rated, productive maiden special-weight. The runner-up returned to finish second in a fast MSW, the third-place finisher returned to win a maiden-50. With a race under his belt and drop in class, STACKIN SILVER figures to improve. TEMPLE BAR was in tough last out in a MSW, his runner-up finish two back on this track and at this class level makes him a logical contender. GOING TO VEGAS, a filly facing boys, finished second in back-to-back five-runner fields. KNIFES EDGE drops from MSW and switches to dirt. SPIDER RICO moves up in class after finishing fourth in a maiden-30 in which the pace completely collapsed. ‘RICO should improve second time out, possibly at a price.

SEVENTH RACE

An impressive comeback victory by DOC YCO CHEEKS stamps the lightly raced filly the one to beat in this Cal-bred N1X turf mile. A sibling to G2 winner Cheekaboo, ‘CHEEKS meets winners following a sharp maiden victory in which she came home in :23.89. Lightly raced and making just the third start of her career, the Unusual Heat filly meets a modest field of state-breds. Seems a likely winner if she reproduces her Santa Anita turf form at Del Mar. MAGNIFICENT Q T improved last out in her first start since being claimed; she finished second in a similar Cal-bred N1X turf mile. Doug O’Neill second-off-the-claim has been a super statistic the past year and a half: 16-for46 (34 percent). AVALON RIDE is an improving Clubhouse Ride filly moving up another notch in class after back-to-back upsets in a maiden20 sprint and $25k claiming N2L turf route. She might be this good. ROSE DUNN is lightly raced (four starts), but not sure if two turns is her best trip.

EIGHTH RACE

GRANDPA LOUIE returns from an eight-month layoff as most probable winner on the card. A Calbred maiden sprinter, he runs well fresh, appears to have trained well at SLR and is drawn outside his main rival. Runner-up both previous dirt sprints prior to his layoff, LOUIE returns for a winning stable and should handle this group. AFTERNOON HEAT is quick, returning from a three-month with speed to threaten. In the money all three maiden50 starts in summer, he will keep the pace honest from post 2. First-time starter LOAFERS BOY is a sibling to seven winners, including five multiple winners. His stable popped with a $41 debut winner last month at Santa Anita.