ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, NIGHT ON THE TOWN

FIRST RACE

Class dropper and first-time gelding INTO A HOT SPOT gets the slight nod over last-out maidenclaiming winner DUBNATION in this bottom-level claiming race, non-winners of two lifetime. INTO A HOT SPOT was gelded since his most recent start, his third-place finish two starts ago at a higher level would be fast enough. This is the first time ‘SPOT raced at the bottom level. DUBNATION moves up following a solid maiden-20 victory. Although maiden-to-winners can be a tough hurdle, it is less of a barrier at this N2L level. Last-out maidenclaiming winners often win right back at this class. Two recent examples: $24.40 Imagineiamfastest on Oct. 19 at Santa Anita, $19.60 Seven Oxen on Aug. 16 at Del Mar. BULLY FOR ERIC dueled and cracked as the favorite two weeks ago. Claimed off the fourth-place finish, he adds speed. BUCK DUANE might be ranked too low by this handicapper. Runner-up three straight at the N2L level, he figures for an in-the-clear trip pressing the pace.

SECOND RACE

KING ABNER ran well in his third-place comeback, rallying from fifth in a race dominated by the two pacesetters. ‘ABNER stretches to his preferred two-turn distance, and should get a good trip positioned second behind stretch-out sprinter JALEN JOURNEY. The latter, a comebacker off nearly three months, drops from a pair of graded sprints during the DMR summer meet, and is quick enough to make the lead. His mid-90s speed figures (Beyer) are among the highest in the field. He won a oneturn mile at Gulfstream Park by more than seven lengths, this is his first try around two turns. Come catch him. CURLIN RULES moves back up in class after a solid N1X comeback win. He won a N2X/ optional claiming race on this track in 2017. He is entered for the optional $62.5k claim tag.

THIRD RACE

Runner-up at odds-on last out in a similar Calbred N1X turf sprint, ZIPPER MISCHIEF benefits by the shorter distance as cuts back from 5.5 furlongs to 5f. He ran super on the DMR course both starts in summer, including a runner-up finish at this level in which he rallied from off the pace. Lots of speed in this field, he might benefit from similar tactics here. JOE JACKSON is a must-use, his recent fourth in the same race as the top choice was super. ‘JACKSON stumbled badly at the break (like many do in SA turf sprints that begin on dirt), dropped off the pace, made a strong rally on the turn and into the lane, then flattened out. He finished next to last, but actually ran well. His closing style should play well in this race that is loaded with speed. HIT THE SEAM finally won a maiden race in the 17th start of his career last out, while LEAGUE OF SHADOWS is an in-form sprinter shipping in following a sharp dirt win at Turf Paradise.

FOURTH RACE

SPECTATOR’S DREAM has started 14 times. Perhaps the 15th time will be the charm in this bottom-level maiden-claiming route. His rivals are dubious, he has speed, and he ran fast enough two back to win at this level. His most recent start, fifth of seven, can be disregarded. He pressed the pace and backed up in a race dominated by closers. The one to beat with a forwardly placed trip. Trust him? Hardly. BARREL AGED adds blinkers after an improved effort second out. The Golden Gate-based gelding picked up the pieces and finished third. He ran okay on dirt in his debut, improvement is expected with blinkers and a route under his belt. A longshot contender is WESTERN FLYER, who has more speed than he was allowed to show in his fifth-place debut. Second time out, with route experience, he has an upset chance. LUCK IS MY NAME is a one-paced grinder that will pick them up late. This field sure seems weak.