ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, MY WAY OUT

FIRST RACE

E Z SAMURAI ran evenly in his debut but that is after he broke slowly. Trying stakes foes in your debut is never easy and this colt did get needed race experience. He is a half to Foggia who earned over 186K in his career. Recent work is spaced nicely. MR NAVIGATOR is by a 9% debut sire. His dam went 31-6-3-1 and earned 151K. All four sibs beat winners including three that earned over 110K. Works are well spaced and this colt debuts with Lasix. GATITO beat over half the field home in his last two starts in New Mexico. We like that Velazquez gets a leg up as he is 24% when riding for trainer Jose Silva. JAQUET is by a 10% debut sire (all sire stats are for 2YO’s only). His dam went 11-3-2-0 and earned 18K. ANNIE’S BOY is by a 1 for 6 debut sire. His dam was un-raced. Three of four sibs won with two having beat winners.

SECOND RACE

TAYLOR GALS tried better in her debut versus 20K maiden claimers at Del Mar and she even got some play at almost 5-1. Then she returned locally but on the grass going two turns where she finished last. We can forgive both of those tries. Then she dropped into easier but finished last again. She also had front bandages and was stuck inside. The blinkers come OFF and she deserves another shot at this level IF anywhere near 15-1 morning line.

EBB AND FLOW is the fresh face from NoCal. The Silva barn is 28% with new runners. This filly tries an elongated sprint for the first time. TIZ LUCY goes second time this dirt and has a recent work.

THIRD RACE

BY THE WAY ran OK in her first two starts and that included a stakes race. That race came back key when two of four returned to win with figs of 37 and 32. This filly has six siblings that are stakes winners. She figures to have matured since last being seen in May. Works are well spaced. LUCKY LAST is by a 1 for 6 debut sire. Her dam went 6-1-2-1 and earned 50K. Of 10 sibs to race, 9 won with 6 having beat winners. This barn is 32% with their debut runners. TOP HAT HIGH JINKS has some tactical speed and puts the blinkers on. She

goes third off the layoff and has a recent work. RUN EIGHT is by a 12% debut sire (all sire stats are for 2YO’s only). Her dam went 53-10-10-4 and earned 84K. Lone sib is 21-2-4-4 and earned 15K.

FOURTH RACE

SIX POINT RACK only faced four foes in his local debut but he still ran quite well and set a Beyer top. He has worked a bullet since. When this barn gets a horse good they often stay that way. TERYN IT UP is a solid turf horse that ran well on the Cby lawn two and three back. Recent Keeneland foes are simply much tougher than these. This colt has a recent work and it came locally which we always like. We actually kicked around putting this horse on top. MR. SHOOK just didn’t fire last out but he was returning off a long layoff. He has tactical speed and draws the rail and perhaps that is key as he won from the wood 3, 4, and 5 back.

FIFTH RACE

MY WAY OUT drops in class while still possessing some upside. His lone two turn try came five back versus Del mar foes and he ran a Beyer top. His distance breeding is actually quite good (358 distance Tomlinson). Team Silva turns him around in a week and they are 25% with that move. SPITTIN HAVOC ran well in his last few and they came on the grass going long. He is capable on the dirt and drops in class for this. DIMERA has hit the board in 11 of 25 career starts. He tries a flat mile for the first time and does draw OK.

SIXTH RACE

ENCHANTACOIL finished last in his debut but still got a decent 33 Beyer. He has a recent work and it came here. Trainer stats are good across the board. There is a good chance that this horse improves second time racing and his first on a real dirt surface. WILT has speed and drops in class. Second time this dirt can’t hurt and his most recent was rock sold. Why the class drop though? He is still the one to beat. ROI BELENCIAGA has never run poorly in four career starts. He adds a half furlong today and draws inside while not stuck on the rail.

SEVENTH RACE

MOR CANDY catches a race with a lot of front speed which isn’t that unusual for a shortened sprint like this. This gelding got Beyer speed figures of 59 and 55 only 2 and 4 back. What if he needed his return try last out? He can pass runners and we like that more than anything. INDICATIVE draws inside and can pass runners. Recent foes were just too tough and he might have needed the race after shipping in from Canada. MYSTERIOUS STORM ran a 73 Beyer just before his last layoff. His return try was quite good but he did get an early breather in that race something he might be denied this time around.

EIGHTH RACE

WE’RE JUST SAYIN should be the value. He did beat four foes home in his return try and we think he needed that start to some extent. Plus, he did get some play at a little under 4-1. He has some turf tries not that long ago that fit here. Plus, we like the confident placement today. Race flow is above average. ABSOLUTELY STYLISH is 6-1 on the morning line, draws nice, can pass horses, and is bred to like the green. Lone grass start has fallen off current pp’s but he still got a 70 Beyer then. The Phil Hall barn is 29% with their repeating winners. This horse will have no trouble getting the distance especially for this good guy barn. CHASKA is in good form and has won on this sod before. He goes for a good turf barn that wins at 17% on the sod. Main pace foe is probably the 4.