ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, THREE TECHNIQUE

FIRST RACE

MINE THE COIN has lost his last three dirt starts as the favorite but he has also run a couple of races that make him too good for this field and he can use the sloppy track as an excuse for that last one on closing day at Saratoga; goes off the claim for Gullo (17 for his last 49 first off the claim in dirt sprints at Aqueduct, 35%, $3.51 ROI) and mya have the best speed in this field. IMPUNITY just failed to hold on at this level last time - to a rival who came right back to win again on turf - and earned a career-best 72 Beyer while also finishing 2nd two starts back, both times over wet tracks; makes his first start off the claim for a talented young trainer. COAST TO COAST made his debut over a tough distance at the MSW level early in the year and then went right back to the sidelines after failing to make an impact; starts back as a new gelding while taking the drop in class.

SECOND RACE

NORTHERN HAZE is two for two, with ascending figures, since switching over to dirt; claimed again and looks to be in a nice spot here if this race is forced to the main track. READY FOR PRIME TIME was no match for stakes horses in the Allied Forces but he has surrounded that race with a pair of 85 Beyers while defeating maidens and then entry-level allowance rivals; this is a somewhat suspicious drop for what may be his final turf start of the year but he is tough to beat if showing up. NO BANG NO BOOM is also a lightly-raced 3yo but he has already raced for a tag, when easily wiring maidens in his turf debut last December at Gulfstream; made it 2 for 2 sprinting on turf at Belmont in June, now takes the drops at the end of the year after proving to be no match for better horses last time at Keeneland.

THIRD RACE

THREE TECHNIQUE ran very well while coming away second-best in each of his first two starts then came through with one of the more impressive maiden wins of the Saratoga meet when rallying strongly from off the pace over this distance at the end of August; missed the big 2yo races in the fall but looks tough to go against as he starts back taking the next logical step. CAPTAIN BOMBASTIC a NY-bred stablemate of THREE TECHNIQUE’s and he is two for two to begin his career, including a game win in the Sleepy Hollow with a 77 Beyer; cuts back a furlong as he faces open company for the first time. MR. SHORTANDSIMPLE was nowhere in his debut routing on turf but he buried maiden claimers when dropped and turned back to make his dirt debut; in tough as he steps up in class.

FOURTH RACE

BELLEZA a maiden making her second career start for a trainer who routinely gets dramatic improvement out of horses like this, and she deserves another chance after racing wide from a tough outside post in her Saratoga debut; bred to handle dirt should this race be moved to the main track. TWO CENT TOOTSIE appeared to take a step forward both two and three back, with those trips not working out perfectly for her, and she just missed last time after fighting her way to a stretch lead; in form and has handled dirt in the past, should that come into play, but she is running out of chances. THE GREAT JOHANNA is similar to TWO CENT TOOTSIE in that she has been racing competitively at this level right along and can run her race on either turf or dirt; will get Lasix for the first time after making her first nine starts without it.

FIFTH RACE

IMPERIAL BREW has a distance question to answer after cutting the pace and tiring in the final furlong after proving to be no match for a clear-cut winner in his return to dirt last time; good fit here as he makes his NY debut for a trainer who came to Aqueduct with the right horses all through the last meeting here. BAD GUY has run plenty of races that make him competitive here but he is hard to take on top with any confidence as he brings his 1 for 32 overall record into this spot - 0-18 on dirt; needs a trip. JOHNNY WISHBONE ran well in

his first two dirt starts upon his arrival in NYand earned a field-best 74 dirt Beyer when second-best in his first start at this level; goes off the claim for an underrated trainer after losing position on the backstretch and disappointing last time.

SIXTH RACE

VICTORY BOULEVARD broke from the rail and was a little slow early in his career debut, but he was racing on well late behind a dominant winner and was clear in 2nd at the end; can build off the effort for a trainer who is 4 for his last 9 with second time starting maidens in dirt sprints (44%, $3.61 ROI) if he gets to run. SHANDIAN disappointed last time when dropped in to face maiden claimers for the first time and finished far behind at the end after contesting the pace; has run well on both dirt and turf prior to that surprisingly poor effort and he has the speed to rebound in this spot. NEXTSTOP POKIPC was slow from the gate first time out at Laurel and faded as the favorite, then showed more speed after being rained off the turf last time; picks up Irad from the rail for his NY debut.

SEVENTH RACE

KUMAR has run his two best races on turf since returning from the layoff but he was showing improvement on the main track prior to going to the sidelines after being claimed by Rudy; goes turf to dirt looking to keep his run of form going and he has the speed to be forward in a paceless race. TIZ MORNING is also returning to the main track for the first time in a while after facing some tough rivals on grass through the second half of this year; has the dirt form to contend as he returns on short rest. OTHER THINGS EQUAL broke his maiden easily when dropped in class two starts back, and earned a solid 83 Beyer in the process; was only second-best at this level last time but earned another competitive figure.

EIGHTH RACE

COMPLEXITY was an exciting 2yo of 2018 after winning his debut impressively at Saratoga with a 90 Beyer and then coming right back to wire the Grade 1 Champagne with a 95; has only managed two starts since then and has been beaten over 20 lengths both times, including his only start so far as a 3yo in the Woody Stephens back in June; has much to prove as he starts back but his talent is obvious and this distance works better for him than it does for the other main speed in the race. HEAVY ROLLER hadn’t sprinted on dirt in nearly a year before being cut back last time to post an impressive win over $32k claimers from the off the pace; should have another favorable setup here as he steps back up off the claim. MR. DOUGIE FRESH a nice fit here for Servis, especially if COMPLEXITY just isn’t up to that top level any longer, and he has tactical speed from a nice outside draw; comfortable anywhere between six and eight furlongs.

NINTH RACE

APPOINTMENT kept up with a fast pace while wide and then tired in the stretch when dropped in class on turf last time; makes his first dirt start vs. claimers in a race where speed like that may play. GONGHEIFATCHOY is also facing claiming company on dirt for the first time here, after dropping on turf and failing to get involved last week; raced competitively vs. MSW rivals on the main track earlier this year. SEVEN PLUS SEVEN has raced competitively on dirt several times already and he also has the speed to contend from the start; turf to dirt used to be a big move for this trainer, though he hasn’t been as successful with it lately.