ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, MISS PERFECTA

FIRST RACE

BAKTOHERTRICKS ran well last out even though she was trying first time winners on the cut back and surface switch. That tells us that she is feeling great. She has worked three times since her most recent and adds a half furlong today. ROSES FOR LAURA might like it here if her maiden breaker is any indication. She won’t get an early breather today though. She owns a recent work and goes for the leading barn. SMART N

WICKED has speed but did pass a runner two back. We think she guns nonetheless. If the 6 shows speed then this filly could find herself between runners and that is a knock. We don’t se Orozco ride very often for this barn if at all. Morning line favorite for what that is worth. This barn is 30% with their 2YO’s.

SECOND RACE

GINGER STREET finds a good spot to try first time winners. Connections could have opted for the $3,500

level but didn’t and we like that. This filly might clear off again and we don’t think this field came up all that tough. We’ll take the chalk here as we have a slew of longshots on this card. JERRYS WAY often breaks well but that wasn’t the case last out. Those GrP tries were solid but ‘cappers won’t care. We like the jock switch to Kevin Orozco. If you toss that turf route four back then this filly looks better. She is just a hard trier. She gets off the rail and figures a fair price. JADEY AT THE BAR did win nicelly four back to break her maiden. Those were tougher two back and it was her first try here. Her most recent was solid. She draws outside today. MERITTRIS exits a key race where 2 of 4 returned to win with figs of 39 and 40. DEEP ‘N’ IT exits a key race where 2 of 5 returned to win with figs of 48 and 58.

THIRD RACE

HARD TO COME HOME won his last three starts and they all came at different distances. He won last out with a new jock. New barn is 0 for 12 off the claim but that is it for the knocks. SAND HARBOR is the value. This gelding has some back class. He tried tougher last out and ran OK but it was his first local race of the meet so we can cut him some slack (plus turf). He got a 61 Beyer when last seen on this dirt and he was facing tons better. PISTOL PA KN PREACHER is th eX factor. Double layoff lines are a concern but works are solid. Small barn adds to appeal. Early tote action might tip hand.

FOURTH RACE

MISS PERFECTA went from a 4% barn to a 5% barn while racing all over the place (8 tracks this year). She has some solid tries here and there. She ends up under the care of Dan McFarlane who is a 24% conditioner. This barn is 33% off the claim. Works are well spaced and sharp. Connections find a spot where this filly can’t be claimed. We might get double digits. OPPENHEIMER did break her maiden off a layoff. She was getting good at the end of the prior meet and we think she can pick where she left off. Works are very sharp. She exits a key race where 2 of 6 returned to win with figs of 60 and 46. PERFECT PROMISE has a ton of speed and two local wins. Other speed is a worry especially as she draws in between it.

FIFTH RACE

HERE’S LOOK INATYA ran OK off the layoff even though she was trying two turns on the grass. She did so from an outside post too. Second time with new barn can only help. She is bred to like a route of ground. That route try two back was poor but she hesitated at the start. She won a turf route earlier in the year. What we are saying is that she might actually be best around two turns. Plus, she will be a good price today. YOU GOT THIS is another turf to dirt router that goes second off the layoff. Those open foes at Hastings are solid and those races at 6 1/2 furlongs are around two turns. This barn is 2 for 5 going turf to dirt. ANGELINA’S HEAVEN is feeling good and goes for a very good barn in Davis. We can’t fault anyone that circles her name.

SIXTH RACE

APRIL’S LADY DI got Beyer speed figures of 42 and 41 the last two times she tried a flat mile on this dirt. What if she is better now? She was in tight two back and broke poorly. She was squeezed in her most recent which was on the grass. There is a lot of speed in this race and if Guglielmino can get this mare to relax some then a great trip can be had at a huge price. BEEJAYSBAR should sit a nice trip from the 3 hole. She has worked twice since her most recent and returns to the dirt. Current form is rock solid. MY EXPRESSION has speed but we think that she tries to stalk today. Drawing outside a lot of the speed is one of the reasons. Avoiding a speed duel is the main reason. What if she simply does what she did three back? She sat way off the pace and closed nicely to win at 5-1. Yea, do that.

SEVENTH RACE

FRUITY gets a ton of pace to chase. Her most recent was better and we like that connections want a flat mile right back. Form cycle hints at better while trainer stats are good across the board. Too bad we won’t get 8-1 morning line. ROXY ROCKET can pass runners so a good trip is more likely than not. This mare is feeling better of late and goes second time this level. FANCY COOKIE ran OK going two turns three back at Emerald. She can pass runners and seems to like this dirt.

EIGHTH RACE

FLINCH cuts back to one turn and gets good race flow if things break just right. He broke his maiden by 10 lengths so there is that. A poor start two back. Not sure what happened last out other than a different jock. That try three back was solid. His last race came back key when 2 of 3 returned to win (only available Beyer is 65). LOOK AT MY STAR is feeling great yet is often a good price. Penchant for less is the main knock. ROCKING CHIEFTAIN is versatile and we always like that. Yet to actually win on this dirt is a small knock. He has improved his Beyer in three straight races.