ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, CAUSEWAY RUNNER

FIRST RACE

SIX NINETY ONE ran into a buzzsaw in his most recent as Smart Prospector is on a tear. Drawing outside and being far back early did not help matters either for this gelding. Today’s pace picture is much better today and now this guy draws best. STONE CREEK might get first run on our top pick. His lack of 870 experience is a knock though. Return try was solid and we really like the cut back in distance. GOLD ECLIPSE did win at today’s distance two back and did so with ease. This gelding has a recent work and lures Samuels.

SECOND RACE

YO LO CAT likes this dirt. Samuels gets a leg up and this gelding just responds well to him (2, 3, and 4 back). Tactical speed comes in handy today and we love this outside post. RUNN’N REBEL ran great off the layoff and has always liked this dirt. Hernandez gets a leg up and he knows this gelding well. For some reason, this gelding is often a good price. PUT YOUR PANTS ON just missed last out while his 68 Beyer was the best last race figure in this race. Lopez rode the 6 last out but stays put here. This gelding is simply a hard trier that has hit the exacta in 26 for 59 starts. The one to beat we would think.

THIRD RACE

CHIEFTAIN’S LAD just didn’t fire last out but he was shipping in from Santa Anita and maybe he wasn’t 100% acclimated. That shouldn’t be a problem today and the class drop is a big one. This good boy has won on this dirt before. Expecting a much better effort today while curious as to the price. SPITTIN HAVOC goes second time with new barn and that can’t hurt. Class jump tells us they think this guy is improving. The blinkers go ON and that is a 33% move for them. IMBETTINONBRUTUS was hard to load and that is normally a harbinger for a poor try. Yet this gelding won nicely. He goes sprint to route and could find the front end today. Plus, his upside is best. Distance breeding is rock solid as his 376 distance Tomlinson can attest to. ELUSIVE FLAME exits a key race where 2 of 6 returned to win with figs of 49 and 45.

CAUSEWAY RUNNER should get first run on the lone speed and do so from the rail so his trip will be great. He goes sprint to route and that can only help as he is better when routing. Second time this dirt is a plus and we even like Velazquez getting a leg up. FATS DOMINUS should clear off as that is just what he does. He is feeling good and loves this dirt. Can’t fault anyone that loves him but we are just unsure about his price. PURPLE SKY got good race flow last out and won nicely at almost 8-1. Todays pace just isn’t as quick...we think. His last race did come back key when 2 of 6 returned to win with figs of 72 and 78. This barn is 2 for 4 with horses that won their previous race (positive return on investment).

FIFTH RACE

SUPERB MOMENT just ran better and now draws the attack post. He has tactical speed to help his trip. He goes second time this distance which is another plus. His most recent was a Beyer top. WORKING did run better on this dirt only two back and that effort might actually be better than it look. He figures a big price today. That was a solid field he faced in his most recent. PRINCE OF PARIS has good figs 1 and 3 back. A classic bounce two back? Tactical speed can’t hurt but we are unsure how much this guy likes this distance. BULLITTONE exits a key race where 2 of 6 returned to win with Beyers of 55 and 57.

SIXTH RACE

YES PLEASE was rolling up in Canada before coming here and getting washed off the green. We think he was gonna need that race anyway. Other speed is the main worry but perhaps this outside post actually helps if it forces a stalking trip. We are hearing good things about jockey Kevin Orozco. DEPUTY DORA wants to pass runners and gets great race flow. He won his local debut two back. Trainer Valerie Lund is 19% turf to dirt. INDIAN BELLA has some speed but will probably take back today. The Diodoro barn is coming around.

SEVENTH RACE

HAMAZING VISION just loves it here. We don’t think he is done improving. Race flow is fine as everyone will be chasing the huge favorite. Previous barn only won at 4%. We don’t get a good price on this kind of Diodoro runner all that often. MR. JAGERMEISTER is the absolute one to beat. He is a multiple stakes winner of almost half a million dollars. Works are solid. His last few were poor though and we just don’t know if this is a prep for something bigger. He will have to break in a new pilot today. STREET LAD might get first run on the favorite. We thought his last race was going to be better. Main calling card is the Davis barn.

EIGHTH RACE

DRAYMAGIC is feeling good and takes a big drop in class going from $8,500 to $3,500. He cuts back to 4 1/2 and that is where he won two back. Race flow is fine. RUNFORMEFREDDIELEE is feeling great. Versatile style is a huge plus. Beaten favorite angle applies today. HOLLY CAT figures a great price. He draws inside and has some speed. His last race came back key when 2 of 7 returned to win with Beyers of 57 and 59 (another finished 2nd with a 58 figure).