ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, BROADWAY RUN

FIRST RACE

SECRET TEMPLE was against the race flow in her latest, and she was caught up in a duel against better two back; she has speed but can also rate, and if she can work out a trip stalking an honest pace she looms a threat in the lane. Despite the lighter price tag, VALERIE FIRST meets better here, as she was in against non-winners of three lifetime in her last five starts; that said, she didn’t run a bad race in her latest, as she was trying to close into slow splits, and she has license to improve here given a quick, contested pace up front. FLASHY PATCH stretches out and should be a factor from the bell; note the easy win under these conditions three back at Thistledown and the fact that she was in against open claimers in her last two.

SECOND RACE

CORCORAN was off the board and well behind the top pair in his most recent but he wasn’t that far out of third, and he was closing with interest in the stretch, down inside; could prove dangerous if able to stay closer to the early pace this afternoon, as this short field should mean they’re more bunched down the backstretch. EMPIRICALLY may be the one to beat as he makes his third start off the layoff; he was third when in that same race as the top pick, making a premature bid and flattening out some late, but he has lots of upside given a better-timed run. ITS MY LUCKY SUMMER might be the one they have to catch despite his wide post; could go a long way on the lead if unpressured through slow early splits.

THIRD RACE

GRISACEO was a remote third when last seen, at this same level, and while the resulting Beyer was slightly sub-par for him his prior figures give him strong credibility with this field; he’ll be tough to stave off late if he runs to those races in his 2nd start at this level. PAINTER’S PRIDE rises in class and price after failing as the favorite against lesser when last seen but he didn’t break well, and that cost him; decent 2nd two back when under conditions similar to today’s. WHISTLE ME HOME makes his first start off the claim and figures to be involved from the start from his inside post.

FOURTH RACE

CPL. DIONICIO is easy to like after hitting the board in his first two starts on the grass, which is clearly his preferred surface; looked like a winner off the turn in his latest but was run down late, but he can make amends with a better-timed run. PALIZA is the first starter out of the dam, who was 0- for four, all on the dirt, but while this gelding lacks pedigree power he does have steady works for this debut, and the barn does well enough in all pertinent trainer categories; board tells more. DANCER ON THE BEACH clearly merits respect off the strong effort in his career debut, when a close 2nd at a big price; much lighter price and much worse post dampen the enthusiasm some but he’d clearly be no surprise.

FIFTH RACE

DATING was well off the board in that last one but that was no easy set up, caught up in a duel while down inside against a bulky field; can turn things around in a hurry given a better trip today. MS. GENUINE makes her seasonal debut and her first start since September and fits well with these on the strength of her best Beyers; draws inside and should put her tactical speed to good use. BREWED TO BE PERFECT adds blinkers after finishing off the board as the favorite in her local debut but she has back Beyers that are plenty good enough to win this; improvement likely.

SIXTH RACE

BROADWAY RUN faced stakes company in each of her last nine starts and she more than held her own, with several near misses against some tough company in New York last year; she was off the board in her most recent, at Aqueduct, but that was on a yielding course and she was under pressure on the lead from the start there. J’S INDIAN