ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, LA MER

FIRST RACE

FRESH ONE ran evenly in his debut while getting some play at 9/2. New barn is 44% off the claim and they add first Lasix. Two recent works are a good sign. DESPOTIC did beat over half the field home in his debut. He adds a half furlong today but is stuck on the rail. Any kind of second out improvement would make him dangerous. WISE RIVER RAY is by a 14% debut sire. His dam went 14-4-3-1 and earned 115K. Lone sib is 28-4-2-1 and earned 28K. This barn can pop with a good priced first time starter. ALWAYS WORKING is by a 14% debut sire. His dam went 8-1-0-4 and earned 23K. This is her first foal.

SECOND RACE

IA MOLD FASHIONED TO looks quickest in here and if so then an early breather is his reward. He has improved his Beyer in every start to date and now goes second time this dirt. He even draws nicely. The one to catch and beat. PAITASKA won’t be that far off our top pick in the early running. His most recent was a tad better and he did get a 53 and 61 Beyers 3 and 5 back. ROI BELENCIAGA wants to pass runners but not sure today’s pace is fast enough for a top finish. Cruz gets a leg up and he is 35% for this barn. This gelding could use a better break and maybe that is where a new jock helps the most. CYCLOTRONIC exits a key race where 2 of 7 returned to win with figs of 60 and 48 (another finished 2nd with a 60 Beyer).

THIRD RACE

LA MER is bred to love the grass with her 361 grass Tomlinson. All 3 sibs won on the green and two are multiple winners over said surface. This filly ran well two back when trying the grass for the first time but it was also off a layoff. Her most recent was better and it wasn’t even on the grass. We think she is sitting on a new top and note the recent bullet work. SHE LOOKS PROUD has some solid turf starts on her resume including that 64 turf Beyer only four back. She reared at the start in her return try so there is that. Curious as to price. FIERY CAUSE draws inside and has some tactical speed. She has won on this sod before. DAT CAT

MIRACLE is by a 11% debut turf sire. Her dam went 2-1-0-0 on the green and earned 12K. This is her first foal to try the grass. JADEY AT THE BAR is by a 0 for 14 debut turf sire. Her dam missed the board in her only turf start and this is her first grass foal. WARNING BELLE is by a 18% debut turf sire. Her dam was un-raced. Lone grass sib is 11-0-2-2 and earned 31K. UNBRIDLED STORMY is by a 5% debut turf sire. Her dam went 13-1-1-3 and earned 70K on the green. This is her first grass foal.

FOURTH RACE

BANDWIDTH is feeling great and loves this dirt. If all stay in then race flow is fine. That barn is 17% with horses that won their last race. The only knock is the 1/2 furlong cut back and it is a small one. TANNERS PRIDE can pass runners and is in good form. This gelding adds a full furlong. New barn is 11% off the claim. Last race Beyer tops the field. UNCLE GOYLE is the best inside speed. If the 7 were to declare out then this guy would have an easier time on the front end (but at a lower price). He just lost to a very good Circus Ride going 870 yards.

FIFTH RACE

KIJANI broke his maiden in good order only two back before facing better last out. We like that connections want this distance again. Win rider returns in Stevens and he is 33% for team Pearson. HOLLYWOOD DREAMER is the other Pearson runner. It might not look like much but this guy’s last race was a Beyer top. He did break his maiden at today’s distance. SINK THE BISMARCK finished 2nd the only time that he tried this distance and he got a 61 Beyer which is a top. That try two back was solid. He was denied a breather in his most recent. The Lund barn is 25% going route to sprint. RANDY’S BOY exits a key race where 2 of 7 returned to win with figs of 43 and 56 (another finished 2nd with a 55 Beyer).

SIXTH RACE

CALIFORNIA APPEAL has some speed and adds 1 1/2 furlongs today. Second time Carreno can only help. There isn’t that much pace in this race. The last two times that this filly got an early breather... she won (4 and 5 back). SHE GOT AWAY was checked out of the race in her most recent. That try two back was solid and with some trouble. Any chance this mare just doesn’t like drawing inside? She is often a good price. TOMORROW’S MINE ran OK in her last few and now the blinks go ON. She has won on this dirt before. Lack of speed is the main knock. BELLA GALINA exits a key race where 2 of 8 returned to win with Beyers of 44 and 52.

SEVENTH RACE

THIN LINE draws outside but has speed. With a decent break, we think he can clear off. Current form is fine while the Silva barn is 33% with horses that won their last race. AWESOME SLATE has good figs of late. He can get the distance and has tactical speed. Jock switch to Stevens is noted. FOREVER THE CHIEF just got a nice confidence boost. Not sure he gets enough early pace though. Expecting a solid price and perhaps the tail end of the exotics.

EIGHTH RACE

TIGER BY HIS TAIL is feeling great. He goes for a top turf barn with McFarlane calling the shots. This gelding has tactical speed and draws nicely. We really like how this jockey is riding right now (Guglielmino). TYLER’S TEK did win when last seen off a layoff and it came here going two turns on the turf. Lots and lots of works. This gelding is certainly classy enough. SIX POINT RACK got an 83 Beyer on this turf only four back. So what happened 1 and 3 back? Any chance he just didn’t like the outside draws two and three back?