ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, MELA JONES

FIRST RACE

ABUSIVE GARY drops to maiden-claiming for the first time, and returns to the surface (dirt) on which he ran okay two previous. The 4-year-old gelding has enough speed to be forwardly placed in a field without much pace, trainer Phil D’Amato and apprentice Jorge Velez won with three of their last four maiden-claiming starters. ONEBADROOSKIE ran better than the line appears in his debut vs. maiden-20 company and figures as a contender moving up slightly to Cal-bred maiden-50. He did not break sharply first out, lost ground chasing a fast pace, and flattened out late. Good effort. With a race under his belt, the front-running colt figures in the hunt. GRANDPA LOUIE will be one of the favorites, but vulnerable based on declining pace and speed figures (Quirin-style figs by Tom Brohamer). Blinkers on, class drop, and fast enough if he runs his best race, but his pattern is dubious. ROYAL ASPIRATIONS returns from a one-year layoff in a claiming race while entered with the no-claim waiver. That often signals optimism.

SECOND RACE

BOONESBORO BEAUTY, previously based in Northern California, makes his Southern California debut against a weak bunch of N2L claiming fillies and mares. Her most recent start was not bad; she pressed the pace and tired in a race that saw the one-two finishers rally from last and next to last. Easier pace scenario here, weight break with apprentice rider, logical choice. SHANGHAI BARBIE, in the money all three recent start at this class level, will be grinding away late. She will find a field she can beat sooner or later. REDS SACRED APPEAL misfired last out, but her two previous starts are fast enough for this class.

THIRD RACE

MELA JONES looks tough to beat in this maiden-40 sprint, assuming she handles the switch to dirt. She pressed a fast pace and finished a close fourth last out against special-weight maidens, and now drops to maiden-claiming over a track that has been kind to speed at six and a half furlongs. Six of the last 11 races at this distance were won by

the pacesetter. ‘JONES figures to be positioned first or second early, she has the top figures, and can be long gone. MUCHO MACHO WOMAN returns from a three-month layoff while dropping from special-weight and returning to a sprint. She showed speed her only previous dirt sprint, and will keep the top choice honest early. FRESH FACE is an Uncle Mo first-time starter from a stable that can get this type ready to fire.

FOURTH RACE

BORDER TOWN blazed his final quarter-mile in 22.73 seconds last out, but his rally fell short by a head in a race won by the slow-pace front-runner. It was a super West Coast debut for BORDER TOWN, who figures to mow these down if he gets help up front. Eight-start maiden COMMANDING CHIEF finished a half-length behind the top choice last out. In the money seven of eight, he should find a field he can beat sooner or later. HUDSON RIVER PARK, sibling to three graded stakes winners (Silent Sighs, Proposed, Prospect Park), broke slowly but finished with run his only start last fall in a dirt sprints. Two turns should be the best trip for the gelded son of Curlin, although this is only the second start of his career.

FIFTH RACE

BLAME IT ON KITTY is the no-confidence default selection dropping to the bottom class level ($12.5k claiming N2L) for the first time. He ran well his only previous start on dirt, maybe he can wear down this field. Key word: maybe. WILL DANCER is a must-use. He wired maiden-20s last time setting legit fractions on a slow surface, and could be the one to catch first time vs. winners. R B EYE will be clunking along late; he finished third both recent starts at this level. GRYFFINDOR also will finish, while BLUE SKYE JADE shows up for the first time at the bottom.

SIXTH RACE

Speed has been good lately at five and a half on turf, and YOU’RERIGHT AGAIN looks like the speed of this starter allowance for 3-year-olds. He set legit fractions two back winning a maiden-30, then ran just okay next out at a six and one-half furlong distance that might have been out of reach. Surface switch to turf is an uncertainty, but if he handles the footing he could be long gone. MOSIENKO, a filly facing boys, figures as a contender even though she did not show much speed either local start around two turns. But she handles turf, she finished fairly close to the winner both recent race and will be rolling late. If the pacesetter does not stay, this race could fall apart perfectly for the closing rally of MOSIENKO. Firsttime starter JAXON’S GOLDIE is curiously spotted against winners in his career debut. But his works look sharp, and his rivals in this modest starter allowance appear only modest. New face in a weak race worth a look.

SEVENTH RACE

LIGHTNING FAST returns from a short layoff as a first-time gelding, with established form last year that makes him the horse to beat in a modest sprint for Cal-bred maidens. ‘FAST showed speed in works last year, but broke slow in his debut followed by an improved effort second out with a wide trip. Rider switch to Agapito Delgadillo, Bill Spawr trainees off two to six months won at a 36 percent clip (9 for 25) the past year. EL DIABLO ROJO broke slowly and finished a creditable fifth in his debut. Craig Lewis-trained second-time starters tend to improve. Lewis won with six of his last 12 second-start maidens. TALLEMARK is a Bruce Headley-trained first-time starter by Surf Cat, therefore worth a look. Headley has popped first out with Surf Cat firsters including Surfing Star, $28; and Ground Attack, $17.40. AUDACE will roll late, while longshot BERNIE’S BIG BOY figures to show speed from the rail.