ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, MR. KRINGLE

FIRST RACE

SOLITARY JACK is an interesting pace play at a big price, as he does appear to be the main speed in an opener that is clearly light on early speed; eligible to steal this if able to shake loose easily enough and back down the fractions somewhat on a loose lead. YOUNG AMERICAN doesn’t have the best of win percentages but he is consistent and he does have some tactical speed; looking for his first Tampa win but he has surely run well in defeat over this strip. STERLING GENERAL is another longshot with upside, coming off consecutive races since returning from the layoff where he lost his best chance at the start; now making his third start since the summer and he lands in a seemingly favorable race given his running style.

SECOND RACE

BURNING BRIGHT is out of the great Forever Together, who won the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, but she also won three races on the dirt, earning over $200K on that surface; her three winners to date have all been best on the turf but this gelding has been training well on the main track and trainer Jonathan Thomas does very well with horses making this surface switch. CARL G doesn’t own a lot of pedigree power, with the dam winning once in 17 starts and her lone starter winless in 19 starts, but he does sport some works that hint at speed; value figures to be there, with ACCESSIBLE likely to be overbet. The latter is clearly the one to beat after running 2nd in each of his last two starts, including a solid try on the dirt two back, but that 68 Beyer was inflated some by a favorable trip, and this is his first try routing on the dirt.

THIRD RACE

WISH UPON was overmatched in the Grade 2 Hillsborough going 1 1/8 miles but she was hardly embarrassed there, and she has all kinds of room to improve on this class drop, and back at a mile; she scored two back from off the pace, siting a nice trip in a short field, and with her tactical speed and inside post she should be well spotted once again, with runners like ROSEBUD’S HOPE and DISTINCTIVE FLOWER likely to be banging heads early on. SOLAR KITTEN is another who stands to benefit from a lively pace up front; she makes her local debut and her 2nd start off the layoff, and both of those factors give her license to take a step forward, as she likely faced better going longer at Gulfstream last time. BRAMBLE QUEEN makes her seasonal debut and returns to Tampa, which does seem to be her favorite course; was posting steady Beyers prior to the break and she does figure to be well set up today.

FOURTH RACE

SHAKEM N BREAKEM was off the board in both of his two starts at this level since the win against KALU and non-winners of two three back but he was against the race flow in each of those losses, trying to rally in races where speeds held the edge (note the bold “S” in DRF pp’s); should get a better pace scenario in this sprint, and that should enable him to make an impact in the lane. KALU has speed but can also rate, and that figures to help him work out a trip from the rail; should be ideally spotted off the pacesetters, including GILDED DRAMA. The latter will be prominent from the start, and could in fact be the one to catch; merits respect on the strength of his last couple of Beyers.

FIFTH RACE

MR. KRINGLE is obviously a big threat here, coming out of stakes races in each of his last three starts, at three different tracks, and he ran well in all of those tries; sharp works since the runner-up finish in the Columbia Stakes in his local debut. TABLED just missed at a huge price in his first start vs. winners last time, dueling for command from the start and continuing strongly to the wire in a solid effort; he scored from off the pace to earn the diploma two back, and that versatility is part of his appeal here, as he can adapt to any race flow. ASSIDUOUSLY has been away since the maiden win in late December, and while the resulting Beyer was a little light compared with the top contenders in here trainer Chad Brown always has to be respected over this course.

SIXTH RACE

PREMIER JUSTICE didn’t break well in that first start off the short break and that cost her, as her tactical speed is a big part of her game and she was never able to get involved; this appears to be a much kinder race flow than she faced in that last sprint, which featured a quick opening quarter, and with a clean getaway she should be a factor from the bell. VAUNT is going to be a handful if she gets off the Also Eligible list and runs in this sprint, even if she is unproven on the main track, as she does have speed and she has been consistent; also making her third start off the long layoff. AND I KNOW was 2nd at a big price on the turf last time but she ran well on the main track in her two prior starts, against the flow of the race each time; those were routes but she may be quick enough to stay close from the start, as she draws inside and this sprint doesn’t seem to be loaded with early zip.

SEVENTH RACE

THAT QUALITY gets off the rail for the first time in three starts and that’s a plus, as even though he scored from the hedge in his debut he lost any chance at the break last time when he broke slowly from the inside and then became rank behind horses; expecting him to be with the pace today, assuming a clean getaway, of course. TY RAN A HOMER makes his first start off the claim for Derek Ryan, who specializes in grass runners; this gelding ran really well in defeat in that off-the-turf race last time out and he largely faced better in those Gulfstream grass races in his prior starts. JACK THE CAT is clearly in very good form, running 1st or 2nd in each of his last three starts and coming off a career-best Beyer; he’s a stone closer, and thus needs help from the pacesetters, but given an honest tempo he may be able to make the last run.

EIGHTH RACE

TILSA is the first starter out of the dam, who won four races, all of them on the turf, and her trainer has solid numbers with debuting runners going long on the green, with nine of 28 such runners (32%) running first or second; this filly sports a couple of breezes that suggest she’ll come out running. FRESHMAN CLASS has run on the grass only once, and though she was off the board she ran a solid race for 4th there, beaten only a little more than two lengths; no threat in her latest but she had little chance to close in that paceless race after she broke slowly. CURLY WURLY is out of a stakes-winning dam who won her own debut on the grass; connections give her immediate credentials — trainer Christophe Clement is three-foreight with firsters on the turf here in 2020.