ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, DREAMING OF PARIS

FIRST RACE

BETWEENHEREANDCOOL clearly fits at this level, as he ran 2nd in his first start at Tampa last time out, under conditions similar to today’s; that was an especially good effort, in that he had to deal with the widest post in a 12-horse fields, and he has license to improve here as he moves all the way inside. RED HOT LOOKS comes off a turf route but he’s still quick enough to get to the lead if aggressively handled in the opening stages, as there’s not all that much proven speed in this opener; owns a pair of wins at this distance. AMERICANO is easy to like off that last race, where he missed by less than a length and posted a his best figure of 2020, but he moves outside today and he did enjoy a perfect trip in that sprint, which may well have been the reason for the inflated Beyer; hardly out of the question but perhaps more likely a possible regression candidate at a relatively short price.

SECOND RACE

SINDARIUS has certainly had his shots as he has searched for that elusive 2nd career win, and his lone victory to date did come on the turf, but the fact is he did run a solid race in defeat in his latest, on the main track, dueling for the lead in a race which set up well for closers and holding on for the show; cuts back to a sprint, and while this may appear to be too short for him at first glance he ran a strong race at five furlongs three back. GOLD DUCAT returns to the scene of his lone career win, back in December of 2018, and he ran well enough in his most recent dirt tries; layoff the main concern but if he’s ready he’s more than capable. TIZ APPROVED clearly merits a long look off that decisive maiden score, and the resulting Beyer, but he may or may not enjoy another loose lead, he has the rail to deal with, and he cuts back to six furlongs.

THIRD RACE

ZITMAN just missed running down THE STIFLER in that last one, a strong effort considering the latter controlled the pace from the start; he was off the board in his prior try but that was on the grass, and his prior try, against better, was a decent effort, especially considering that it proved to be a key race. FOURTH DESIGN could be the main speed from the rail, emerging from sprints where he was with the pace; he is proven around two turns, and if he’s able to shake loose and back down the fractions he has a big shot at a big part of this and, yes, at a big price. TALK TO THE MEDIA is usually more likely to get a piece of the exotics than key them but he rewarded the faithful with a determined run to score last time at better than 51-1; back on the main track but he handles either surface and he’s clearly in good form.

FOURTH RACE

That last running line for ATLAS MOON is tough to simply dismiss, as something clearly went amiss for him in the early stages, but he has worked with intent as he makes his local debut for trainer Michael Tomlinson; expecting him to rebound as he moves back to the turf, which surely seems to be his preferred surface. HAY HAY MY MY is the main threat off a near miss in the slop in his latest, as he earned a similar figure in his prior try, which was on the grass; he draws wide here but has the tactical speed to get position from the outset. MONETIZED might be the right value play behind the two favorites, as he has speed and the rail, and he could shake loose in the opening stages for the first time in his short career; there doesn’t appear to be an abundance of pace in this field, which works to his advantage.

FIFTH RACE

ALLURING APPROVAL has hit the board in five straight races, her last two against similar

company, and that was despite a wide trip last time and a slow start two back; she was behind R

SWEET EXCHANGE three back but endured a more difficult trip than that rival, dueling for the lead from the start and dropping a tough decision late. The latter benefited from a perfect trip in that win, and though she was off the board at this level last time she was involved in a race-long battle on the lead there; dangerous if she can work out another stalking trip. SUNSET EMPIRE is the one to beat on the class drop and the return to the dirt, which she clearly prefers; hard not to like, though she figures to be a relatively short price at this reduced level.

SIXTH RACE

COCKTAIL SKIRT finally gets back on the turf in her four start off the long layoff, and while she didn’t run poorly on the dirt she should be expected to move way up back on the green, as she was very good — and very consistent — on the turf at Gulfstream last year; will be looking to come from off the pace but she has enough speed to at least stay close early, and that could prove important if the fractions are controlled. COLONELS DAUGHTER was off the board last time but that was a race rained off the turf and run on the dirt, and that’s just not her game; she faced better in most recent turf tries and she is the one to fear in the lane, though she will need pace help, as usual. I DREAM OF LOIS has more speed than she showed in that return from the layoff, though perhaps that rating trip was by design as trainer Don Swick may have needed to get a race in her; figures to be more forwardly placed this time around.

SEVENTH RACE

DARK WEB is 0-for-two thus far in 2020 but he certainly ran well in defeat each time, including that last one, where he lost by less than a length following a race-long duel and earned a solid figure in defeat; he was caught up in duels in those two losses but he was very game in both of those tries and he’s the one to beat on the strength of those two losses despite the cut back to 5 1/2 furlongs. EXPENSIVE STYLE was a nose short in his last Tampa appearance, and though he failed in two starts at Gulfstream the Beyers make him a serious threat here; off the board last time but he made a premature bid there before weakening late. IMPRESSIVE SPEED faced a decent group of maiden claimers in his debut, seemingly an aboveaverage field, and a slow start may have cost him; has license to improve with a clean start and with that experience under his belt.

EIGHTH RACE

FAST FIRE overcame a slow pace to score against several of these same rivals and at this same distance in his latest, and he’s in line for a repeat with a similar effort; he’s especially tough given a quicker pace in this one, and that seems entirely possible. BOURBON EXTENSION was unable to run with the top pick in the lane in that last one but he held well enough to finish within two lengths of that winner; positional speed should mean he’s well spotted from the start once again. PROJECTED became eligible for this race when entered for $16,000 claimers in his latest, and that victory proved he remains in good form at the age of eight; back-classy gelding would be the top pick at a more conventional distance but he may well handle the 1 3/8 distance, especially given a clean trip and an honest pace up front.

NINTH RACE

TAKIN IT EASY was against the race flow in each of her last two starts, including her latest, which at this same level, and those pace-compromised trips give her legitimate nd excuses for those losses; she was overmatched three back, when in against open $12,500 claimers but she can be expected to take a step forward here if she gets the race flow in her favor, and the price should be right. GET SASSY is wide but very speedy, and if she’s ready to run off the nearly seven-month layoff she has a shot to shake loose despite the draw; trainer Kevin Rice decided to take advantage of the waiver rule, so she is not eligible to be claimed in her first start of the year, which can be construed as a positive sign. R NEXT ROLL is the one to catch and beat as she take a huge drop in her first start since February; this class drop coupled with the layoff certainly raises a red flag, and she’ll be a short price due to the $5,000 claiming tag, but she’d obviously be no surprise for high-percentage connections.

TENTH RACE

DREAMING OF PARIS sports a nice work for this first start off the short break, and trainer Michael Stidham ran one-two with turf horses with similarly sharp works here on Sunday; perhaps more importantly, the barn absolutely excels with horses dropping from Maiden Special Weight company to maiden claimers, winning at a rate (39%) that makes this filly a threat by default. NATOMA gets back on the turf after she was rained off the grass in her latest, a dull effort but one for which she’s easily forgiven, as she’s at her best on the green; solid try two back makes her a clear contender. WHISKEY SONG is out of a dam who won five races, all on the turf, and the fact that her trainer wins at such a strong rate with firsters here — particularly with maiden claimers — makes her a threat by default; short price ensured but she has to be included.