ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, LAKE PARIMA

FIRST RACE

SAMMY’S MINESHAFT is down in class and price since his last race in early March; last couple of efforts and figures at this distance make him easy to like against this group, as does the fact that he’s capable of racing on the lead or coming from off the pace. JUNCTION does like to run 2nd, as he did in his latest, and that does make him one to strongly consider for exactas; he’ll be looking to come from off the pace but he has the early speed to stay close from the start. ELUSIVE RO was aided by the race flow in that near miss in his latest but he has to be respected here, as that was a solid effort; best Beyers put him in the middle of this.

SECOND RACE

IVORYSGOLDTREASURE has a bit of a late kick, as she showed in her latest, and that could be a big factor here as most of these fillies have shown that they like to stay close, and have been unable to make up ground late; hoping she can pick them all up given a clean trip and a contested pace up front. TIMELESS DI has speed and the rail — for the third straight time — and she will be prominent from the start; she ran very well in defeat in her route debut last time, rating nicely and making a bid before weakening late. TENERIFE MOON routes on the dirt for the first time; if she can stay closer in the opening stages coming off that sprint last time she will have a better shot of making the last run.

THIRD RACE

JACKIES DREAM was 2nd against similar in her most recent, when switched back to the main track, and though most of her tries have been on the turf she may be just as good on the main track, getting the place in both of her two dirt starts; comes off a good try, where she closed for the place despite racing well off slow early splits. LADY AND ME also needs some pace help but she should get it, and with a clean trip from the fence she may be able to make a late impact as she stretches out again; rallied well for the show two back but she was against the race flow last time. AND I KNOW comes out of the same race and she also had trouble making up enough ground given the pace scenario; she did rally some there, though, and she has been in good form since breaking her maiden.

FOURTH RACE

POSITIVE IMPACT is out of a dam who posted her lone career win on the grass, and trainer Eoin Harty has decent stats with horses making this surface switch; the barn also excels with horses dropping from Maiden Special Weight to maiden claimers, and this gelding as every right to improve against this modest bunch. LORD BYRON is easily forgiven for the lopsided loss on dirt last time, as it merely proved that he is at his best on the turf; best recent figures on the turf put him on the short list of contenders. ESTILO PELIGROSO was 2nd for this tag two back and then returned to get the place again last time, on the dirt; clearly improved of late and an obvious threat today off those last couple of running lines.

FIFTH RACE

YABBA DABBA DUDE was a beaten favorite in each of his last two but that last group he faced was a deep field of open $10,000 claimers, and he prompted decent fractions in the route two back; expecting him to rebound here, especially if able to work out an inside stalking trip just off the speeds. SPECTACULAR ROAD may be one of those speeds, but he can also rate if need be, as he showed in his latest; makes his first start off the claim by trainer Gary Johnson and looms a big threat, though his overall record makes it easier to use him “underneath” as opposed to on top. JUST FLASHY is pure speed, as his best races have come when he’s been on the front end; will look to clear the field from his outside post and he’s a threat to steal it if able to do so.

SIXTH RACE

LAKE PARIMA was aided by the race flow, which favored closers, when she closed for the show in her latest but she nevertheless merits respect off

that line, and the resulting Beyer; trainer Christophe Clemente is always tough here, especially with Gulfstream ship-ins. SCREEN IMAGE starts for a tag for the first time in her career and she’s a strong fit on the strength of her Beyers; makes her third start off the layoff, another reason to like her chances at a relatively short price. HIGH

CLASS PLAYER is on the bottom of the AE list but she figures to be a threat if she gets in, as that turf debut last time was a better effort than it may look — she rated off the speeds and made a mid-race run before flattening out.

SEVENTH RACE

DRAFTABLE pressed the pace before tiring going seven furlongs in his latest but he figures to appreciate the cut back in distance today; addition of blinkers also seems to agree with him, as that work on April 26th was solid. SAVAGE MUSIC is the main pace rival to the top pick, and may in fact prove to be the quicker of the two; if he’s able to shake loose early on he could get brave, even off those ugly 2020 lines, as he was unable to get clear in those races and that cost him. MISTER STORM was game in defeat when last seen, his second consecutive good effort since shipping to Tampa; could find himself in an ideal spot if the top pair were to hook up in a race-long duel.

EIGHTH RACE

GEOGRAPHY makes his first start off the claimer for trainer Jose Delgado, who shows a 20% win rate with such runners, but the long-term stats are much better than that; sharp in two starts over this course, and those solid works since his latest indicate he retains his edge. FINE SPIRIT makes the mandatory class rise after the win over claiming non-winners of two but he may be up to the task, as he was impressive in those last two victories; will need to work out a trip from the rail but with clear sailing he figures to try to make another mid-race run and bottom out the field. GAMBLER’S

FALLACY didn’t run badly in his local debut and he was flattered when the winner, On a Spree, returned to score again in his return, against a solid field; lack of tactical speed may mean he has to pass them all late but given some pace help he should be rolling under jockey Scott Spieth.

NINTH RACE

FEDERALE and TOTAL DISTRACTION are tough to separate, but the former figures to offer a better price. FEDERALE makes his first start against winners but he comes off a game score against an above-average field of maiden claimers, and if he can run back to that effort he will be a handful in this finale. TOTAL DISTRACTION was well off the board in his latest but that was a function of race flow, as he was run off his feet in the opening stages of a sprint that featured a great deal of pace and set up very well for ralliers (note inverted “C” in DRF pp’s, indicating an enhanced edge for closers); different pace scenario likely here, and he can be expected to be on or near the lead with a clean break from the rail. DEVIL’S RULE may have needed that last one, his first start since December; willing to give him that one and hope he’s able to move forward and run back to his better figures, which are plenty good enough to win this.

Main track: One mile, oval.

Distance from last turn to finish line: 990 Feet. Turf course: Seven Furlongs

TAKEOUT INFORMATION

■ Win, place, and show: 17%

■ Exacta wagering: 20.5%

■ Daily Double, Pick 3, Pick 4, Super Hi 5 wagering: 18%

■ Pick 5: 15%

■ All other wagers: 25.9%