ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, WAR GIANT

FIRST RACE

An 11-race Sunday card will start with the forecast saying that rain is unlikely, meaning the six scheduled turf races probably can stay put (all selections here were made for turf ON, anyway). The 12:45 ET opener is a real head-scratcher, with any number of ways to lean among this oversubscribed lineup of MSW turf milers; gonna nod toward IMPERIAL MOMENT, assuming the gray colt benefited substantially from that La. Derby Day effort in his first out for Louie; careful early rating from Jaramillo would surely help. Right alongside, ASTRONAUT could come favored for Albertrani after outrunning his 24-1 odds with that eye-catching 82 BSF, highest in this field; something similar obviously makes him tough here. COURAGE debuts amid high hopes, given he was a $350k yearling purchase and has been working steadily for the Pletcher powerhouse.

SECOND RACE

Forgive the hung-very-wide first crack vs. winners for LUXE DIAMOND and she might well be deserving of support yet again, having been favored in each of her last 3 for Joey O.; the two-back romp with the 66 BSF hard to overlook. STORMY BOSS was a decent 2nd at this same level in her latest; can stalk herself into a prime spot while saving all the ground. DISTINCTLY SASSY didn’t really seem to care for the slop going a mile two Sundays ago.

THIRD RACE

An outstanding group of veteran turf milers makes for a very interesting high-class matchup early on the card. Slight edge to TEMPLE, the steady steed who stepped up with a winning 95 BSF in his latest; complexion here suits the off-pace style of yet another successful high-end Maker claim. RENAISANCE FROLIC resurfaces with ample work under him for his new trainer, Saffie; really came to hand last fall. CLASS AND CASH, first or second in 23 of 36, continues to show himself worthy at this lofty level.

FOURTH RACE

One well-bred first-timing filly from a high-profile Payson barn, MUMBAI (C.Clement), gets the nod here over the rehabbed BLITCHTON LADY, although a second Payson firster, GRAND CRU CLASSE (W.I.Mott), easily could be just as playable, if not more so. Bottom line is this is a toughlooking MSW sprint made further notable by the return of DOLL COLLECTION, a daughter of the great Groupie Doll.

FIFTH RACE

No doubt the $35k claim of MAN WITH A PLAN didn’t seem to work out for the Repole/Pletcher axis, but as they further cull their stock amid the transition back to NY, it seems worth salvaging what can be salvaged via this aggressive jamdown to this bottom-N3L level; highly possible there’s the proverbial hole to him, and yet the outer post and a hustling Jaramillo ride can make him prominent from the bell. Looks like his main threats are a couple of 4yo geldings coming off N2L wins as favorites, AWESOME ACTION and ENZOEXPRESS.

SIXTH RACE

Heady closing effort by FUDDLED on Fla. Derby Eve makes her tough to get past here as the Saffie stable continues to thrive; another live one for

Jaramillo. LET THEM EAT CAKE makes an interesting turn-back after showing the way in backto-back two-turn races; change of tactics likely in store. HUMOR ME DIXIE was no factor in her 4/30 return but the race had to help toward her fitness.

Been a long time, if ever, that DIZZY GILLESPIE has been risked for as low as $8k as Walder does his best to awaken this SoCaro-bred gelding; so-so third as a 6-5 favorite came in his first start in nearly 3 months, so he’s eligible to move forward off that. Just to his inside, BLAME THE THIEF ships down from NY looking for action; Rudy has sent his troops to Ky., too, just trying to keep things humming. DEXTER ROAD was too eager in his latest; off-pace tactics work best for him.

EIGHTH RACE

Forget the too-tough Honey Ryder on (what woulda been) Ky. Derby Day, and the form of LA RUSIA stacks up nicely vs. these other 3yo turfrouting fillies; perennially underrated on the tote, she’s usually willing to give her all nonetheless, at least when properly spotted. TOFFEN shows two solid efforts in as many tries over grass; rates kindly again under a typically savvy Bravo ride before moving in. MISS MY MACHO has won 2 of her last 4 while climbing the class ladder; welldrawn along the hedge.

NINTH RACE

The day’s best, WAR GIANT, was terrific two-back when spotted for this same $25k by Saffie, and he’s liable to dare all to come catch him again today; yet another live wire for Jaramillo. BLUE BUFF has been on the edge of awesome in racking up a 3-race win streak, but is there enough challenging speed in here to make his late run just as effective? Therein lies the overriding question with this race. COLONEL LIAM should still be a maiden but got lucky when Per Capita fouled him unnecessarily, leading to a DQ.

TENTH RACE

The layoff of nearly 6 months for NETTLETON is an obvious concern, and so are his low BSFs from his 2yo season, but seems he’s got a touch of class that could carry the day in his first try vs. older types; drilling right along at Palm Meadows for an outfit (J.Abreu) that does solid work; price should be right. CARBON DATA clearly was in need of his latest when being too eager off the 20-month layoff; Va.-bred might still have what it takes. WILLING TO SPEED has been very competitive in all 4 starts since shipping south for the winter for Doc Kimmel.

ELEVENTH RACE

CAPTURED BY FATE has never raced on turf (not that his connections haven’t tried), but he does seem to bring a smidge of class to this finale, not to mention a high turn of speed; tries building an insurmountable advantage to send you home (OK, you’re already home) a winner. SOUPER SHENANIGAN stands to benefit big-time from the 4/17 return; comes shrewdly spotted on this slight drop by his HOF(-elect) conditioner. KOBE FIFTY TWO was terrific in his lone appearance and obviously can’t be discounted.