ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, STRONG GEM

FIRST RACE

SEVENTYSEVEN WILOW stretches out to two turns for the first time in over a year and he seems to land in an ideal spot, as he has proven speed and this opener is light on pace; could be tough to reel in if he’s able to get loose easily enough and back down the splits. ALLEGIANCE is the main threat in terms of pace, but he’s wider than the top pick and he doesn’t necessarily need the lead, which could mean he cedes the lead to SEVENTYSEVEN WILOW; this could well be a two-speed exacta, one way or the other, if this pair avoids a racelong duel and a controlled pace is set. REIGNING WARRIOR makes his local debut and figures to be the main threat in the lane; Fair Grounds shipper has the best dirt Beyers in the field.

SECOND RACE

DREAMING OF PARIS went down as the favorite when last seen but she hardly ran a poor race, as she pressed the pace from the start and weakened only in the late stages; she’ll be wide if she scratches in off the AE list but she could also be the main speed in this field, and given the apparent lack of pace in this line up she’d have a tactical edge. BAIN TOWN WOMAN made a big mid-race move up the rail down the backstretch in her only start on the grass to date, and she continued well to the wire to just miss, galloping out nicely late; latest, switched to the dirt, is easily overlooked. HONESTA has run 2nd in each of her last three starts, which makes her a threat but also makes her vulnerable when considering win candidates; logical enough, though she figures to be a short price.

THIRD RACE

WINNING QUALITY was on the turf in her last two before the layoff, against better, and she’s back on the main track and in against a field where her dirt Beyers makes her a top contender; tactical speed should mean she’s well spotted behind the pacesetters from the start. ANIMAUXSELLE makes her first start off the claim and fits based on her best figures; overall win percentage always a concern for her but she has license to improve in her first start for new connections. FIDDLER hasn’t been close of late but she lost her best chance at the start in all of her recent losses; she was in against better last time, sent two turns two back and against the race flow three back, so there is no shortage of excuses, and perhaps she can grab a check at a price if finally able to break with the field.

FOURTH RACE

SON OF SO raced erratically and was virtually eased in his latest, and he gave way after stalking the pace two back, but if he is allowed to run on early in this one he could well get clear without much pressure, and given a loose lead he could get brave late; works suggest he’s ready to go in his first start since February. STREET LEGACY had all kinds of trouble in that last one, more than enough to give him an excuse for that off-the-board finish, and the Beyer he posted in his maiden score over this course makes him very dangerous here; drop in price off the short layoff a concern but he could well be the one they have to beat. SNOW LION has not run back to that aberrant 79 Beyer he posted in his own graduation but he has run well, and he’s posted fairly consistent Beyers; clearly a threat if able to run to those races in his first start in two months.

FIFTH RACE

GLOBAL TROUBLE COCO is the first starter out of the dam, who won four races, all of them sprints on the main track; this colt sports a couple of works that hint at some ability and he’s well drawn inside for his career debut. DR PARKER is one of other two runners in this field with racing experience, and while that could well be an edge it also usually means an underlaid price; first starter out of the dam, who was blanked in six career starts. HALL RICH LEGACY is the other starter with experience, and now adds blinkers, tough he has to contend

with the rail again; kin to four starters, including 14-time winner Monster Mash.

SIXTH RACE

MATTY’S EXPRESS has steady figures and he’s won two of his last three starts; he was unable to make up enough ground to threaten the top three in that last one but he did make a nice mid-race move to reach contention and then galloped out past them all after the wire. MECHA CORTA ships over from Gulfstream and looms dangerous here based on his Gulfstream figures; this is his first start vs. winners but he clearly fits if he’s able tor run to his best Beyers. CADET CONNELLY weakened after making a move to the lead on the turn but he returns with Lasix and could well take a step forward; winless on the turf but he didn’t run a bad race in any of those losses, and his tactical speed is a big plus.

SEVENTH RACE

AGI’S CAIT cuts back to a sprint but she didn’t run all that badly in her one turn races last year and she comes off a very sharp off-the-turf win, where she set a quick pace yet drew off smartly in the lane; there’s speed to her inside and out and she may fall into a nice stalking trip today on the cutback. STARSHIP REINA is one of those speeds, and though she will have to deal with PROPOSITION in the opening stages she is proven at this distance, while her main pace rival is untested going this far; especially dangerous if she can sit off that rival some in the very early stages. PROPOSITION will look to steal it under leading rider Antonio Gallardo, and she’s well drawn inside; sharp works since her latest suggest she retains her form but the extended distance does give cause for pause.

EIGHTH RACE

STRONG GEM comes out of a race against better and the Beyer she put up in defeat there makes her a top contender in this claimer for non-winners of three lifetime; she thrashed non-winners of two in her prior start and she’ll be a handful in the lane here if she gets an honest pace and a clean trip from the hedge. OH DILLY should provide the pace, stretching out from main track sprints, and if she is allowed to set her own tempo on an easy lead she could well get brave in her turf debut; dam was best sprinting on dirt but she produced at least one turf winner in Uncharted, who earned $149K. NOBLE INTENTIONS sat in ideal position after some early traffic trouble in her latest and she easily handled a seemingly average field of non-winners of two; merits respect off that 65 Beyer but she will be bet here and the jump in class is not minor.

NINTH RACE

Trainer Dale Bennett is three-four-seven with 1sters in dirt maiden claimers at Tampa going back to 2017, including Fast Fionnuala, who scored here last month, and that makes firster COUGAR VISION a threat by default; this 5-year-old mare makes a belated career debut, and while her pedigree offers few clues (lone sibling to start was winless in seven starts dam was best routing and on turf) she meets a seemingly vulnerable group. LA WAPA has speed and now switches to jockey Chuck Lopez, who figures to be aggressive with her from the start; needs to outrun MERENGUE and others in the early stages but if able to do so she figures to go a long way on the lead. PLAY THE MAX makes her first start in over a year but she lures Gallardo, and the connections give her strong credibility; the class drop off the long break is a concern but she’s certainly be no surprise against this group.