Edge to Beau Recall in deep Mint Julep

In a normal year (try to remember what that feels like) this would be the quiet weekend before the Belmont Stakes storm. This year, it’s just a quiet weekend. Only a handful of stakes races dot the North American landscape and easily the best of them, including an excellent renewal of the Mint Julep, come at Churchill Downs.

Mint Julep Stakes

This came together nicely, to say the least.

One could make a case, at least a mild one at a price, for a number of these fillies and mares. Zofelle was tempting, despite the bad draw, since she’s had really lousy trips – she was best last time – in her last two and still possesses upside. Mitchell Road might finally be permitted to once again do what she wants – go to the front and dictate the pace. She and Juliet Foxtrot appear to be the only two entrants with any semblance of early pace. Elizabeth Way, a Frankel filly with talent, holds some intrigue cutting back from 11 furlongs to 8 1/2. Chad Brown’s longer price, Altea, had trouble last time and is preferred over the Brown-trained Nay Lady Nay, who, to be fair, probably will be a bigger price than her 4-1 morning-line odds.

Still, the thought is this race has a Big Two, and those two live in the same shed row – Brad Cox’s.

Juliet Foxtrot is the 5-2 morning-line favorite, and I do believe she’ll be solidly favored. A wide draw and a stalking trip with no cover left her vulnerable to Got Stormy and a late move from Daddy Is a Legend closing out the 2019 season in the Grade 1 Matriarch. Only Uni, who closed like a blur, beat her in the Grade 1 First Lady at Keeneland.

But those performances underscore Juliet Foxtrot’s little weakness: While she’s a very high-class performer, she lacks dazzling acceleration and can be vulnerable to truly fast-finishing foes.

Beau Recall is just such a mare. She feels somewhat a forgotten horse right now and really might approach her 4-1 morningline odds with all this field’s depth. The 10-furlong race to cap her 2019 season was just an experiment, and it proved what we should’ve expected – that Beau Recall is best at eight to nine furlongs, with a lean toward eight. The best race of her career came in her lone Churchill start, where she overpowered Got Stormy on Derby Day 2019. She’s a light little mare, the sort of horse whom a trainer like Cox ought to be able to get fit to fire fresh. I see Juliet Foxtrot shrugging off Mitchell Road in midstretch, Beau Recall popping into the picture just then, and running her down, with Zofelle or Elizabeth Way to complete the trifecta.

Winning Colors

The morning line has this Mia Mischief at 8-5, Break Even at 9-5, and I won’t be surprised if Break Even, who looks like the speed of the speed here, winds up favored. That’s the hope, since I’m in Mia Mischief’s corner.

(One other hope: That Spiced Perfection, who I dislike here, gets anything close to the support the morning line forecasts.)

Mia Mischief has always been a horse for the Churchill course, and I’d guess in the pre-coronavirus world, her connections’ plans for the first half of the year centered on the Grade 1 Humana Distaff, a Churchill race she upset at 11-1 last May. But this year, Mia Mischief didn’t need Churchill for her best race; her performance in the April 25 Carousel at Oaklawn was electrifying. Mia Mischief traveled around the turn with relaxed fury and absolutely inhaled the leader when given her head. She ran fast but she ran easy, and her subsequent work pattern suggests she can reel in Break Even come Saturday.

Honeymoon

I’ll take a shot here with Red Lark, who already has won at this 1 1/8-mile trip and figures to be somewhat overlooked in the betting.

Red Lark had a stop-and-start trip for nearly the entire China Doll Stakes, her rider stymied every time he tried to move her into a better position. She didn’t have a clear run in the stretch until very late and showed much more zip when finally able to lengthen her stride than she had in her maiden win. She can sit midpack as Laura’s Light and Parkour fight it out in front and could be poised for a career-best performance.