ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, OLENDON

FIRST RACE

CREDIT CYCLE regressed some in that last sprint but a wide trip cost him position, and he weakened after making a mild mid-race bid; prior Beyers and efforts put him in the middle of this and he should get enough pace in this opener to set him up for a late run. AUTOGRAPH is one of the expected speeds despite coming out of routes, as that last one featured a fair amount of speed and he still made the lead; best races have come in routes but given a forward trip and mild fractions here he has license to last for a big part. STRIKING HEIR has been in search of his third career win for some time but he did turn in a pair of decent tries in his last two; he was caught up in a duel in that last one but he’s at his best when able to take back and make one run, and that is likely to be the strategy here.

SECOND RACE

OPTIC WAY ran an odd but enterprising race in defeat in his first start of 2020, setting a pressured pace through quick fractions before taking back some down the backstretch and then showing late interest along the rail in the lane; there is other speed in here but he doesn’t necessarily need the lead to win, and with the right trip he can spring a mild upset. I’M A G SIX is the one to beat after finishing a close 2nd as the odds-on favorite in his latest, unable to run down the front-running winner; figures to be closer to the early pace this time around. GENERAL PADDY couldn’t catch up with the top pair in their last meeting but he was moving well enough late; the Beyers he posted three and four back give him strong credibility and he’s a threat here if able to run back to those figures.

THIRD RACE

AND I KNOW gets back on the turf, and while she posted her lone win to date on the main track she has run well enough in defeat on the grass, including her last appearance on this surface, three back; she closed with interest to get the place there, no threat to the runaway winner but game to finish clear of the rest with a decent late run. OURHANDSOMEGAL rallied nicely for the show in that last one, her first try around two turns, and she could well improve here with that experience under her belt; quick, contested pace would help her cause. WICKED WITCH has raced on the turf three times and she Beyered in the 50’s each time, and that figure puts her in the mix with these; closer needs pace but there is speed to her inside and out.

FOURTH RACE

CLIFFY faded after stalking the pace in his latest when in against an above-average field of nonwinners of two, and this drop in price figures to work to her advantage; his proven speed also adds to his appeal, as he could prove to be the one to catch if able to break alertly from the rail. GOLD DUCAT was squeezed some at the start of his latest and was never a threat thereafter, and he wasn’t pushed once it was clear he was beaten; removes the blinkers for this yet should be a pace factor given the relative lack of proven early zip in this field. RIVER HAWK starts on the dirt for the first time and turns back in distance, and the latter angle is a positive one for trainer Ned Allard (25% win rate, $3.12 ROI); has the speed to be a factor from the bell.

FIFTH RACE

MORGAN’S Z VA meets males but she has been training very well toward her first start since January, and she could find herself in an ideal spot behind a contested pace in this one, as there are several confirmed frontrunners to her inside; price should be right, too. I’M CARDINAL is still looking for his first win of 2020 but he ran well in defeat in each of his three losses; has proven speed and the hedge and he will likely look to steal it under leading rider Antonio Gallardo, who clicks at 56%(!) with trainer Georgina Baxter. MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE loves to run 2nd, as he did in his latest, when a neck in front of I’M CARDINAL on the wire;

he loses Gallardo to that rival and he does seem better suited to the bottom of exotics due to his overall record but he merits respect here, especially as he figures to be well spotted off the speed.

SIXTH RACE

DOODLE HOPPER took full advantage of a paceless field and gave nothing a chance when last seen but that is more a nod to his versatility than it is a knock on that race, as he’s probably at his best when able to come from off the pace anyway; he’ll very likely be looking to do just that here, as a contested pace seems likely, and if he’s ready off the layoff he should be in position to make the last run. NOTACATBUTACARD is another who stands to benefit from the expected race flow; he had some traffic trouble when third last time out against a seemingly above-average field. PERFETTO has the tactical speed to grab a spot behind likely pacesetters RED HOT LOOKS, DRILL’S LI’L MAN and MOUNTED COP; too late in his latest but he is not at his best over a wet track.

SEVENTH RACE

OLENDON is clearly going to be tough in her seasonal debut for trainer Chad Brown, who is always tough over this course, and with horses coming back from a layoff; she was behind the very sharp Concrete Rose in her first two U. S. starts and then was compromised by slow splits in her latest before she went to the sidelines. ROSEBUD’S HOPE has the speed to stay close and also gets the rail, and that should mean she gets first run at expected pacesetter DISTINCTIVE FLOWER, who has been known to stop; it also should mean she gets the jump on the top pick. BELLE LAURA is another with stakes experience making her seasonal debut, and she fits here based on her best turf figures, even if her top Beyer was earned with the aid of a loose lead in a paceless stakes race at Gulfstream.

EIGHTH RACE

C’EST PARTI is out of an unraced dam who produced only one other runner, Blazing Diva, who has started only once, but while she lacks pedigree power she apparently does have some speed, if those swift recent breezes are any indication; best guess in a typically wide-open juvenile race. SIXTY CENT hails from the barn of Tim Hamm, who is clicking at 22% with his firsters and with his 2-year-olds, and that makes this filly a threat by default; 1st starter from the dam, who won four races in Argentina. STELLAR GRACE turned in the best work on her tab in her latest breeze, and she lures Gallardo for this; trainer Joan Scott also entered MOONSHINE DREAMER, who is on the bottom of the AE list.

NINTH RACE

LITTLE CODE was up the course in her first start in a couple of months but she got no help from the race flow, which gave a big edge to the speeds (note the inverted “S” in DRF pp’s); a better set up seems likely today, and given a clean trip she can run them all down on the wire, as the barn’s solid record with horses making their 2nd starts off this type of layoff adds to the appeal. IGOTTAWHITEFACE gets a pass for the off-the-board finish last time, as she was not only not on her preferred surface in that dirt race but she was also against the race flow; improvement expected if she gets a stalking trip off the speed(s). COCKTAIL SKIRT weakened after making a premature move in her latest but she ran a better race than that running line may indicate; 2019 turf Beyers give her strong credibility in this finale.