ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, RUNCHIEFRUN

FIRST RACE

ST TERESA has speed and comes in fresh and that alone could win this. Her last race came back key when 2 of 9 returned to win with Beyers of 32 and 44. If Kevin Smith can get this filly to break decent then she should be long gone with any kind of a breather. BEAUTIFULANDWILD ran poorly in her two tries before the layoff but she was going long in both and was very wide in both. Her debut at the Fair Grounds was actually her best effort to date and maybe that tells us that she can fire off a layoff. We only see one listed work so we hope she is working somewhere. TWN PALMYSDESTINY did try tougher in her debut. She almost beat half the field home in her second start. Class drop and outside post go together nicely. One of only a few that has actually passed a runner before. CLAIRES JEWEL is by a 1 for 12 debut sire. Her dam went 31-6-3-4 and earned 126K. All three sibs have yet to win.

SECOND RACE

What if COWGIRL CALLIE just didn’t like being under the care of Jerry Hollendorfer? It happens. A new barn takes over for this and Joe Foster is 21% with new runners. Local works are perfect. This mare has some tactical speed and that should help with the rail draw. EMMA’S GIFT is an 11YO that loves this dirt. The last two times that she ran here off a layoff...she won...and at double digits (15-1 and 13-1). Guerrero rode both of them. The Ward barn is 25% off a medium layoff. ACTIVE GIRL just worked a bullet on this dirt. She ran well four back off a layoff and those were open foes at a tough return distance (7 panels). The last time that Mora rode this mare she won five back at almost 4-1. Maybe MALILA offers some value in the exotics.

THIRD RACE

CHEROKEE CHATTER takes a huge class drop but does so for a new barn. Local works are quite fast and check out the bullet work on the 3rd. This filly doesn’t get much pace to chase but that won’t matter if she runs anything like she did in her debut. It is nice to see Dominguez get a leg up. CUSTOM CUT has improved her Beyer in every

start. We like how she switched to the turf last out and ran OK even though her turf breeding is only marginal. She gets some class relief today and has some local works. LITTLE MERCY has shown speed before. What if she break great and gets an early breather? If our top pick is truly off form then she could steal this at a good number.

FOURTH RACE

TONI’S STAR has only run poorly twice in his career and one of those came in the slop at Delta with the other versus allowance foes. New barn is 1 for 3 off the claim and they want the turf first out. We don’t blame them as this gelding’s sire gets 21% debut turf winners. Dam and sibs never tried the grass so no help there. This horse comes in fresh and has some tactical speed to help with the rail daw. BOSTON BIND is stuck outside but is proven on the grass and off a layoff. Plus, you get Karl Broberg in your corner (27% off the claim). ANDY JONES did break his maiden on this sod and did so versus special weights. Horse for course? Local works are well spaced. HISTORY EARNED is by a 4% debut turf sire. His dam went 1-0-0-0 on the green. One of four sibs won on the grass with another hitting the board. DON LOUIS is by a 7% debut turf sire. His dam missed the board in two turf starts as did lone sib to try the green. FLY GUY RAK is by a 0 for 7 debut turf sire. His dam went 3-0-0-0 on the green and this is her first foal to try the weeds.

FIFTH RACE

ZELIG is by a 22% debut sire. His dam went 16-40-3 and earned 188K (won 2YO debut). Of four sibs to race, three won and all three beat winners at some point in their career. His recent local work was 2nd best of 37. We expect a good price. PREACHER faced better in SoCal before ending up here. He lands in a barn that is 21% with new runners. This colt has speed and draws inside so he might be the one to catch. RICH ICON has improved his Beyer in every start. He jumps to special weights but escapes Oaklawn foes. He can pass runners and could be a nice price. DAGGERS ARCH exits a key race where 2 of 6 returned to win with figs of 70 and 63.

SIXTH RACE

RUNCHIEFRUN has speed and should find the front end as there isn’t much pace in this race. He won two back going wire to wire and did so from the 10 hole at the Fair Grounds. His turf breeding is excellent and notice that he has tried nothing but the grass in three career starts. We would like to see some more works but you can’t have everything and get double digits on the morning line (12-1).

Speaking of which, this gelding has been double digits in every start to date (he paid almost $90 two back). KING OF CANDY is a solid turf runner that goes second out for team Broberg. He should trip out nicely while saving all the early ground. CANDIZAR only beat five foes last out but still won EZ on the grass. His turf breeding is very good. He was a maiden only three races back so maybe he is just a late bloomer.

SEVENTH RACE

ILLUMINATINGAPPEAL can fire fresh, goes for Broberg, has some tactical speed, owns at least three local works, and is better on the dirt. Works for us so let’s move on. THEBOYZHOUR might be the value as he is 20-1 on the morning line. Three of four local starts last summer fit here. Jockey/ trainer combo shows a flat bet profit here. Note the bullet work on the 29th. FLASH ATTACK has solid figs and drops in class. His last race came back key when 2 of 5 returned to win with figs of 86 and 69. AZTEC DELITE exits a key race where 2 of 6 returned to win with figs of 55 and 75.