ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, CHESTERTOWN

FIRST RACE

EAGLES PALACE faced better in his two dirt starts as a 2yo last summer and finished gamely on debut after getting outrun early, before having trouble at the start and then bumping in the stretch of his second start; switches from turf to dirt while turning back and faces maiden claimers on the main track for the first time. INK SPLOTZ wired a field on the drop last summer at Monmouth before being disqualified from purse money and getting the condition back; has lost four times since then but has shown big speed in all of those races; tries again dropping back down. YANKEE EMPIRE looked to have some potential after racing greenly in his debut and then looming in the stretch behind Basin and Three Technique at Saratoga before flattening out; hasn’t progressed and has now finished last in both starts since returning from the layoff.

SECOND RACE

BLACKTOP LEGEND was rained off to the dirt last summer at Saratoga and finished a good 3rd after a bad start then won each of his next two starts easily with improving figures; drops back down for Gullo, who has already won a couple of races at the young meet. TAPIZEARANCE had some trouble breaking out of the maiden ranks but he ran well more than once without winning for his original trainer; improved for Cox while going 2 for 2 and will have to hold that form off the claim, but contends if he does and should be a fair price. VINTAGE HOLLYWOOD has been at his best going a bit longer so far but cutting back shouldn’t hurt him and he earned a new top figure first off the claim for an underrated trainer when last seen being defeated by Family Biz, who is likely better than anything he meets up with in this spot.

THIRD RACE

PRINCIPAL DANCER has to improve to pick up his second career win here but he remains lightlyraced and is meeting a field that is mostly exposed at this point; disappointed in his first start vs. other winners last time but ran well in the mud two back when wide all the way and then came back to take a nice step forward while easily defeating maidens. MANDATORY PAYOUT is just 1 for 18 on the way in but he has run plenty of races that would give him a look in here and he has mostly held his form since being claimed away from Atras; switches to Ortiz for his first start back. KADENS COURAGE is another who has had his chances but he has speed when in the mood and has run some races that would make him tough in here; turf to dirt on a quick turnaround and he is usually a price.

FOURTH RACE

COUSIN ANDREW looked a horse in need of more ground when getting outpaced in his sprint debut and then finishing gamely for 2nd, before galloping out well past the wire; paired up his 78 Beyer when stretched to a mile and coming up short in his second start but the horse that beat him is okay; don’t love him but he may have found the right spot here. CREED is an interesting alternative, as he has pedigree for this stretch out being by Honor Code and from the female family of A.P. Indy and Summer Squall; was never a real threat first time out but he ran a little in there and Shug has good numbers with horses like this. OWN IT IF YOU WANT IT is vulnerable to one of his more lightly-raced rivals but he has run the fastest race so far, has speed, and just missed when last seen. UNCLE MOONLIGHT debuts over a tough distance for a trainer who doesn’t often crank them up early but he has the pedigree to be a runner being a halfbrother to multiple Grade 1 winner By the Moon by Uncle Mo; shows up with some nice works in tow.

FIFTH RACE

May be sticking with ALANDRA for one race too many but not giving up on her just yet, despite her mostly disappointing form since winning first time out at Saratoga; she had a lot thrown at her after that promising first run and didn’t run poorly at all in the Alcibiades from too far away, and her two most recent starts at Gulfstream may be a bit better than they look; would like to see her keeping closer order early this time. SPICE IS NICE ran to her pedigree and price tag first time out when leaving maidens behind with an 84 Beyer, a figure she matched when only second-best in the Davona Dale in her next start; was no factor in the GP Oaks when last seen but that race was dominated on a slow pace by the razor-sharp Swiss Skydiver; gets some class relief and is supposed to be tough in here. KANSAS KIS looked like a work in progress early on but she has steadily figured things out and came up with a big effort in the Busher two back when making an early run to take the race to favored Lake Avenue and put her away, only to fall to a closer late; threat to rebound off a poor effort behind the aforementioned Swiss Skydiver in the Fantasy last time.

SIXTH RACE

WINGS OF FURY improve upon switching to turf and stretching out for Stidham at Fair Grounds and did so while showing improved speed on this surface; got the wrong ride last time when taking a strong hold to concede the early lead and should be turned loose early in her first start off the claim. MERLINS MUSE has come up short more often than not but her turf form is solid overall and like that she has a win over this distance already, that coming by a narrow margin last May with a 76 Beyer; endured a very tough trip following a short layoff at Saratoga last August then bounced back to finish a good 2nd to stablemate Saratoga Treasure, who would subsequently become a stakes winner sprinting on turf. FACTORING is just 1 for 12 on the grass and her recent form hasn’t been her best but she does have races that fit here and she will be a price in what does not shape up to be a strong field.

SEVENTH RACE

CHESTERTOWN has much to live up to after bringing $2 million as a 2yo in training but he has shown flashes on the track and really seemed to appreciate stretching out following his useful sprint debut; was no factor in the pace-dominated Louisiana Derby last time but thought he ran quite well in both starts leading up to that and he is getting significant class relief for this. YANKEE DIVISION caught wet track and didn’t run well first off the claim for Rudy last December but he bounced back with a career-best effort in his next start while prevailing over a speed-favoring track an he nearly held on in that last one after dueling the pace in a race that collapsed; has improved for this barn and is dangerous on his reappearance if he can shake free early. DANNY CALIFORNIA is rock-solid and figures to factor in here with his good race, which he will show up with more often than not; went out of town to get a race in last month which could give him an edge on some of these.

EIGHTH RACE

MR. ALEC has come up short at the en in three of his four career starts but he ran well in defeat each time and it doesn’t appear to be a character flaw that has held him back; has no issues with distance and he has the kind of natural speed that could lead to a nice trip in this race for Clement, who saddled a turf route winner off a similar layoff last week. VALUE ENGINEERING has show potential for top connections but had a little trouble putting races together early on (he was listed as a vet scratch prior to breaking his maiden at Saratoga); looked good posting that lone win through some traffic, though he did have a nice pace setup that day, and he ran well last time when just missing over this distance, though he may have hung a bit at the end. NO WORD is stretching out for the first time but thought he showed potential as a 2yo while winning first time out at Saratoga and then enduring a bit of a trip when 5th in the Pilgrim; second off the layoff with forward to go but he is facing some tough older rivals here.

NINTH RACE

ADVENTIST has a closing style that leaves him at a disadvantage but he has come back around with longer distances over the last six months, winning a Grade 3 impressively over a pair of solid horses and then running well in three straight races in NY, including his Bernardini win last time with a late burst of speed; seems likely to be overlooked a bit here for the wrong reasons. Have no argument with SIR WINSTON being the horse to beat here as last year’s Belmont winner looked good winning over a mile last time with a strong late run; not sure he’s bullet-proof here but I’m not against him. PROMPT hasn’t had an easy time of it in his first two starts following a long layoff as he bumped into a pair of nice horses in the Challenger when a distant 3rd and then landed in a rapidly-paced Hal’s Hope at Gulfstream; improve when finally switched to dirt and the distance shouldn’t be an issue for him. ROCKETRY and YOU’RE TO BLAME both have the back class to be tough in here but their recent efforts have not been their best ROCKETRY, in particular, had some excuses last year while going 0-6 and is a dangerous horse in here.

TENTH RACE

MOPOLKA debuted sprinting on dirt earlier this year and raced very greenly in that spot while appearing to need the race; switches to grass on the drop and has some pedigree being by excellent turf sire Uncle Mo and out of a dam who won three times on turf in her career with a 91 Beyer top on this surface. DILLY JOE debuts for a trainer who doesn’t mind using these races as a means to an end but this does not appear to be a strong field and this filly is by a solid turf sire and is out of a dam whose two career wins came on the grass and who is a sister to Grade 2 turf winner Three Degrees. CENTRAL CAPITAL was looking to run on turf as a 2yo but was rained off both times and failed to make an impact sprinting on the main track; enters for turf again off the layoff, this time for a tag.