ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, SCUTTLEBUZZ

FIRST RACE

ROAD HOME ran pretty well to finish a closing 2nd in his debut as a 2yo but hasn’t come all that close to winning in six starts since while facing better; gets a needed class drop here for Mott, who does well with this move - past five years, 3yos and older, MSW-to-MCL, dirt: 8 for 27, 30%, $4.06 ROI. JUDICIAL RESTRAINT made one start earlier this year vs. MSW rivals and was completely outrun early going a mile, before coming through between horses at the top of the stretch and racing on to finish in midpack; drops for top connections and has more upside than most. GHOST ON A MISSION getting a full complement of changes here while dropping, switching from turf to dirt, taking the blinkers off and apparently racing as a new gelding; won’t have to improve much.

SECOND RACE

MISS JAK has been defeated at short prices in her two most recent starts but she was facing better in those races and didn’t run poorly either time; liked that win at Aqueduct three starts back and expecting her to run well here as she drops in class, though this isn’t your typical $16k claimer with 73 total wins among her nine rivals. COLD HEARTED PEARL has accounted for 12 of those wins and she made her first-ever NY start a winning one when last seen in February; consistent 6yo is versatile in terms of running style and distance and goes off the claim for an excellent trainer. RADIANTRITHYM was no match for MISS JAK last November and came up short of COLD HEARTED PEARL last time, though she had enough trouble at the start of that race to be considered unlucky; dangerous off the claim for Gullo.

THIRD RACE

STOLEN HOLIDAY one of several fillies in here appearing to have some real upside and she ran to her big price tag and excellent pedigree first time out while easily wiring maidens; never seemed to get down to serious business in that run and finished that race off nicely despite still looking green in the stretch; forward to go but can make no mistakes vs. this field. CAT’S PAJAMAS has a big turf pedigree so it should have been no surprise to find her taking a big step forward on the surface switch last time - though she did go off at 27:1; traveled strongly throughout that race and won it convincingly at the end. LINNY KATE worked out a nice trip in her Gulfstream debut at the end of February but still liked the way she finished in that race to close it down; well-bred filly earned a field-best 82 Beyer for that win and is going to be tough if improving for the run. LASHARA also ran very well to win her turf debut last time, and LOGIC N REASON improved from race to race last year before breaking her maiden impressively with a 75 Beyer - as a 2yo.

FOURTH RACE

FLEET STEPPER giving away some experience here as a first time starter but she debuts for Clement, who is excellent with newcomers and often gets overlooked a bit when starting out in maiden claiming races - past five years, first time starter, turf, MCL: 6 for 28, 21%, $3.43 ROI; Midshipman is an excellent turf sire and this filly is the first foal from Raven’s Rocket, who never won on grass but earned her best figures in that surface and earned a shot in the Grade 3 Florida Oaks as a 3yo. MORE MANGO debuted at Tampa lost some position early, before getting into some traffic at the top of the stretch; wasn’t winning that race but didn’t have a perfect trip and was racing on at the end. OCEAN FIRE has hit the board in seven of her eight starts on turf, including each of her last six, but hasn’t managed to get there 1st; guess she was caught behind horses at a crucial