ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, MAGIC TAPIT

FIRST RACE

CAPTAIN VINNIE raced wide throughout over an inside-favoring track in his subpar showing Nov. 17. His trainer has excellent stats with new acquisitions, and this one is getting some class relief. AMERICAN DRIVEN brings solid Tampa turf form to his first synthetic track excursion. JORDANS WAY is another Tampa shipper who could have a say in the outcome.

SECOND RACE

SOUPER FLY OVER performed well on the Tapeta last year, and you can draw a line through his two drab winter races on the dirt at Penn National. He should be ready to roll and is nicely spotted in this optional starter. MARTEN LAKE is plunging in price off a $40K claim/layoff by McKnight, and must be approached with some reservations. The 12-time winner rarely runs a bad one. The consistent but win-shy FOREST BROTHER is a logical prospect for the bottom of vertical wagers.

THIRD RACE

MAGIC TAPIT comes off an improved third-place finish in the slop at Gulfstream, in which he was sent to the lead before fading over a track that was kind to outside-closers. He’s shedding the blinkers, and can handle the Tapeta when he’s on his game. COMBATIVE won a seven-furlong N1X on the Tapeta in November, and probably needed his comeback in a five-furlong turf dash Gulfstream. ROSE’S VISION has been idle since finishing on the edges in a key optional event won by a peaking Brass Compass Nov. 3.

FOURTH RACE

ITSKATHIESLUCKYDAY stalked three-wide over an inside-biased track en route to a two-length loss when moving out to a route at second asking Nov. 2. She wintered in South Carolina with trainer Mike Keogh, who sent out a longshot winner on opening weekend. CAPABLE landed on the fringes in each of her last two outings on the Gulfstream green, and has worked thrice on the Tapeta leading up to this engagement. EXCELLING has worked fast. Use her underneath in the exotics, along with PIPESTONE and SECOND GRACE.

FIFTH RACE

FOREST SURVIVOR, by the good speed/debut sire Old Forester, is the first foal from a versatile winner of $169K who notched her debut at 2. He was in Ocala before a series of local works on the Tapeta. NEXT is by the very popular freshman sire Not This Time, who’s 2 for 4 with first-timers. The homebred has worked extensively for noted baby trainer Ward, and should take some catching as the chalk. MAGIC SPIN has been saddled with a wide draw, but both his sire and dam won at first asking at 2.

SIXTH RACE

RED QUEEN’S COURT won for fun on debut last June before getting disqualified. She failed to put to all together at a higher level during the remainder of the meet, but should be dangerous on the drop back down to $25K. SOUPER PECAN raced off the golden rail when she came up empty against tougher Dec. 8. Her previous effort in a key $25K sprint was much better. LET’S HAVE FUN is also getting some class relief for her seasonal bow. Her new rider, Fukumoto, has begun the meet on a positive note.