Looking for loopholes in Tiz the Law’s form

Horseplayers can be a tough bunch. There’s been a mile-and-a-half’s worth of griping this week about short fields on the Belmont Stakes undercard, to say nothing of the relative horror over the shortened Belmont itself. Listen, I can gripe with the best of them, but given the utter chaos the last three months, I’m going to try and relax and enjoy this card.

There are plenty of talented horses racing and despite the limited field sizes, some opportunities to get a decent price home.

Belmont Stakes

I guess I pitched a tent in the “Tiz the Law Skeptics” camp a few months ago and have been loath to pull up the stakes. Tiz the Law’s twin successes in the Holy Bull and Florida Derby did a good job of emptying that camp, and while I’m not, per sé, against Tiz the Law in the Belmont, I just can’t quite get fully behind him at what I expect to be odds-on favoritism.

To be sure, video of his recent workouts reveals a horse who, to me, if anything, is doing better now than he was in Florida. Tiz the Law, already with a race at Belmont, his home track for much of the year, will take plenty of beating Saturday.

I don’t give Modernist, Farmington Road, Fore Left, and Jungle Runner much chance, and while Dr Post has latitude for improvement (to me, more so than Pneumatic), the two horses I could most easily imagine beating an in-form Tiz the Law are Sole Volante and Tap It to Win. I’m uncertain that a long one-turn mile-and-an-eighth on dirt – wait until this horse gets back on grass – is what Sole Volante really wants, so my focus turns to Tap It to Win, whom I plan to bet to win and with Tiz the Law in an exacta.

Tap It to Win just showed us June 4 he could win the Belmont. Mystic Guide is a talented, promising colt, and Tap It to Win, with an eye-catching display of controlled route speed, buried him and any everyone else in a 1 1/16-mile Belmont allowance 16 days out from Saturday’s race. Trainer Mark Casse doesn’t shy from running a horse back on short rest when the horse is thriving, and reports suggest Tap It to Win has indeed thrived the last week. The presence of Fore Left, a potentially major pace rival, causes concern, but Tap It to Win might be able to slough him off around the far turn, take a short breather, and brace for Tiz the Law. At their respective prices, I’ll bet he can stave off the favorite’s challenge.

Woody Stephens

At 8-1, Shoplifted easily is the longest morningline price in the Stephens. I’ll take some of that.

Race-shape wise, you’ve got a supercharged speed horse, No Parole, flying out from post 1 and dragging Echo Town and what figures to be a sharp Mischevious Alex into a furious pace. Echo Town didn’t look like his best self while grinding out his last win, and Mischevious Alex, if he’s subject to prolonged pressure, could feel the effect of his 14-week layoff. Meru will attack them at the quarter pole, and while everyone is wilting, Shoplifted, getting what might be a very beneficial cutback from routes, can clunk into an upset.

Pennine Ridge

Decorated Invader ranks among the best 3-year-old grass horses in North America and need not fall too far behind a moderate pace, if that is how the tempo works out. No interest in trying to beat this short price and no strong exacta filler opinions.

Wonder Again

As far as short-priced favorites go, I feel much better about Decorated Invader in the Pennine Ridge than Sweet Melania in the Wonder Again – but I still think she wins. Depending on the prices, I could be tempted to try and run the second and third choices, Highland Glory and Selflessly, out of the exacta.

Acorn

Somewhat quietly, Speech did not do a lot to validate the big speed figure from Gamine’s allowance win May 2 at Oaklawn Park, getting an 87 as Swiss Skydiver crushed her in the Santa Anita Oaks. You know who else ran against Swiss Skydiver, who has emerged as a real divisional powerhouse? Lucrezia did, and not only did she face a formidable foe in the Gulfstream Park Oaks, finishing a respectable second of 12, she did so at a two-turn trip that I believe is beyond Lucrezia’s best. Love the cutback to a one-turn mile and Lucrezia can sit right on Gamine’s flank the entire trip, perhaps, with Casual taking money, at an even higher price than her listed 9-2.

Jaipur

Oleksandra might be my strongest positive opinion among this stakes sequence. Stubbins was probably best in the Daytona last out and, like Oleksandra, will appreciate the stretch to six furlongs here, but Oleksandra gets a meaningful seven pounds from Stubbins. Oleksandra is 2 for 2 at Belmont and picked up with her strong-closing second to the excellent Jolie Olimpica in her 2020 debut right where she’d left off at the end of 2019 – in tremendous form.