ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, STUBBINS

FIRST RACE

STRIKING SPEED debuted going a mile on dirt earlier this year and ran a winning race while under pressure on the lead virtually throughout and only succumbing to the two favorites late; doesn’t have a ton of pedigree for the surface switch but is by a good turf sire and his trainer tends to do much better after a race. HOLY EMPEROR showed speed in his lone turf start to date and was no match in the stretch while gamely battling back to be 3rd going nine furlongs; can have another chance on this surface and the slight class relief doesn’t hurt. TURN OF EVENTS has been kept pretty busy since debuting in December and has come close a couple of times while earning some of the better figures in this field; won’t be too hard on him for that last one as he steadied early and then was wrapped up by his rider when coming up empty in the stretch, which exaggerated the margin of defeat. Didn’t really want a first-time starter in here but Chad has two and SEA CITY has an interesting pedigree for an underrated trainer.

SECOND RACE

NO PAROLE has something to prove vs. this level on competition, though this Woody Stephens didn’t come up nearly as tough as it could have. Don’t really care about his Rebel going long and he has otherwise been impressive while toying with weaker rivals sprinting; liked the way he fired to the lead last time to give that field no chance and would expect Seaz would be sending him from the rail once again. MERU looked good winning his first two starts as a 2yo and earned a 95 Beyer in his second career start, before breaking slowly and failing to make a real impact after a wide run in the Nashua; ran well in his return after backing off early and then appearing to get intimidated while between horses in the stretch, before finishing gamely too late. MISCHEVIOUS ALEX has run well in every one of his dirt starts and has won three straight stakes between seven and eight furlongs, including a pair of Grade 3s this year with improved figures; has speed but is handy enough to stalk if required.