ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, COUNT ALEXEI

FIRST RACE

Early first post Saturday, 12:30 p.m. COUNT ALEXEI looks tough in this Cal-bred maiden turf sprint, based on his runner-up debut on this course. He set the pace inside, shook off two challengers (they finished sixth and eighth), opened up and was collared on the line. Sharp effort, more than two lengths clear of third. Likely winner if he runs two alike. UTALKNBOUTPRACTICE could have given the top choice a battle but for blowing the break. ‘PRACTICE walked out of the gate, away last, rallied into contention saving ground on the turn, angled outside and finished well to miss by less than three. The leading rider takes over second time out. EL DIABLO ROJO looms an upset candidate, trying a turf sprint for the first time since his off-slow debut in January. Expect him to be outrun early, and rally late at a price. CAERULEAN adds blinkers and tries turf. His pedigree suggests this might be his surface.

SECOND RACE

TOINETTE launches her campaign with established class at this Grade 3 level, top figures in the field, solid works with ability to fire fresh, four-for-four on Santa Anita turf, and tactical speed in a race light on pace. Though KEEPER OF THE STARS is the field’s only Grade 1 winner, one could argue TOINETTE is the best horse based on outstanding campaigns in 2018-19 during which she won three graded stakes. Off since finishing fourth in December, a point in the season when she was over the top, TOINETTE returns as a stronger mare at age 5 and positioned to take on the elite of the female turf division next month in the G1 Jenny Wiley at Keeneland. But first, TOINETTE faces a formidable rival currently the top female turf runner in California. That is KEEPER OFTHE STARS, whose successive wins includes the G1 Gamely last out at a mile and one-eighth. This shorter mile distance is not an issue; two previous graded wins were at this trip. ‘STARS holds a current-racing advantage over the top choice, she won four of her last five starts on “firm,” and will roll late. She is a better filly since learning to relax early and finish. QUERELLE stretches out in peak form, one-two four straight allowance sprints. Perhaps outclassed, but razor sharp.

THIRD RACE

OH MARVELOUS ME defeated similar mid-level claiming sprinters last out, his ninth career victory. He typically strings together top performances, and can win right back assuming he overcomes the inside post. Minimal value in a five-horse field, however. JAN’S RESERVE drops slightly after missing by only a length and a quarter in a highly rated N1X/optional claiming sprint that was his first start in more than a year. Second start back, outside post, logical contender. VANDER KELEN, stablemate of the top choice, returns from a long layoff while entered “not to be claimed.” The no-claim waiver typically signals optimism.

FOURTH RACE

MOONHALL MILLY ran better than the line shows in her third-place comeback last month, and looms the one to beat in this maiden turf sprint. She steadied and lost position at the break, uncorked a middle move, got bogged in traffic on the turn, but kept to her task to miss by less than two. Sharp effort. She has more speed than it appears, and with a clean break should be tough. The comeback filly OFFICIOUS flashed speed and faded in her debut in autumn, she returns with sharp work