ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, FREE DANCER

FIRST RACE

JIMA’S GOLD was hurt by the race flow last time, was in against better two back and caught wide in bulky fields three and four back; no more excuses in today’s opener, as she meets a seemingly average field for the class level, and she does figure to be a decent price. U KNOW I B LION has raced consistently enough when sent six furlongs of late, outside of the dull try two back when a slow start cost her, and she does have the speed to get immediate position; logical enough if she runs to her usual figures. MI TIA CHRISTINA has improved with each start in 2020 and looms dangerous with another step forward off a good try for 2nd in her latest.

SECOND RACE

SANGUINE has only routed on the turf once before, and that was over a year and a half ago, but it was a decent effort, and she also ran well in a sprint on the grass; meets the softest field she’s faced yet and she looms tough for high-percentage connections. PYTHONESS was off the board when last seen but that was a deep field and effectively lost all chance due to traffic problems; big threat today with a clean trip. BIG ANNIE will need to improve in terms of Beyers but she does make her Tampa debut and she did run some decent races in defeat at Gulfstream, albeit against maiden claimers; could get a share at a big price if ready off the layoff.

THIRD RACE

WHISTLE ME HOME was a strong 2nd in his last appearance on the main track, two back, closing ground behind a controlled pace in a race lacking speed; better set up and a clean trip from the fence can make all the difference for him today. MALIO’S has hit the board in seven on his last eight starts and his Beyers have been steady; tactical speed is a big reason for his consistency and he should be well spotted from the start once again today as he’s well drawn inside. SACRAMENTO Q was overmatched in his first start off the Bennett claim behind sharp sprinter My Boy Lenny but he figures to rebound today, as his usual figures fit nicely.

FOURTH RACE

Best of luck to track announcer Richard Grunder, who has to contend with IMPERIAL GUARD, IMPERIAL GREATNESS and IMPERIAL IVOR in this turf route. But it does seem IMPERIAL GUARD has an edge on the other “Imperials”, and the others, as he ships over from Gulfstream with some of the best Beyers in the field; he has the speed to stay close, and that could enable him to get first run at expected pacesetter AZZEDINE from his inside post. SWIFT KID is stuck on the AE list but he’s a threat if he gets in, as his grass Beyers put him in the mix and he’s never raced this cheaply; will likely have to pass them all if he does get it, so he needs pace help. FRIO drops to the lowest level offered for turf runners and he does figure to run better here if he’s able to get away cleanly, which was not the case in his latest; not sure he’s worth a short price, however, as he makes his 16th start in search of his diploma.

FIFTH RACE

LEISHLANICK stretches out from an abbreviated sprint to an elongated one and she does loom the controlling speed in this field, which is a little light on pace; latest was also a race that featured several speeds, making it tough for her to get to the lead, but this sprint seems to present a much different race flow. MY BLONDE MARY adds blinkers and may show more speed than she has in her first three starts to date; could prove a threat if she can in fact stay close to a controlled tempo. BEV’S STRENGTH had no chance to make up ground after racing well off the speeds in a paceless race at Gulfstream when last seen but she has to be considered a threat back at Tampa; barn excels with horses off this type of layoff.

SIXTH RACE

FOX ROX was off the board and behind a couple of these same runners in their last meeting but he had the toughest trip of all, caught up in a racelong duel early on and weakening only late; can turn the tables today if able to shake loose and back down the fractions on a loose lead. RUDIGER is the main danger and the one to fear in the lane based on his last couple of tries on the grass; dull try on the dirt last time is easily overlooked, as he is clearly a turf horse. BIG MONEY MACHINE showed surprising gameness to get his head down on the wire in his latest, on the dirt, and his last couple of turf figures were slightly better than the 71 he posted there; has to be considered a threat to repeat with the right trip.

SEVENTH RACE

FREE DANCER certainly does appear to be the main speed in a sprint that’s a little light on same, and with a clean getaway he may be able to get clear in the opening stages without all that much effort; goes turf-to-dirt for leading trainer Gerald Bennett. ETERNAL CROSS was a gritty third in his latest after setting the pace from the start; he’s the main pace foe to the top pick, and he is inside that rival. CRUPI’S PIZZA DOM had no chance to last after setting a pressure pace last time in a turf race that set up well for the closers; cuts back to a sprint, and while he may want more ground the barn’s success with horses making this move from grass to dirt does make him intriguing (35%, $3.20 ROI).

EIGHTH RACE

PANTHALASSA adds blinkers and switches to the turf for trainer Kathleen O’Connell, who does well with both of those two angles; dam hasn’t produced any turf winners but most of her offspring were best routing, including multiple stakes winner Mad Flatter, and this filly is worth a shot at a price against a largely uninspiring field.

SIDNEY SUE was up the course in her first and only try on the turf to date but that was against better, and the resulting Beyer makes her formidable in this finale; logical enough on this class drop and off that figure. SHE BROKE MY HEART middle moved in her latest before she flattened out in the lane; first starter out of the dam, who posted both of her two career wins in dirt sprints, but trainer Dennis Ward has good numbers with horses moving from dirt to turf (20%, $2.92 ROI).