ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, KRISTI’S COPILOT

FIRST RACE

Opening Day finally arrives in Oceanport, N. J. after a two-month delay due to Covid-19, and right off the bat Chad Brown looks to make his presence felt with NORTH BROADWAY, who comes off a sharp maiden score at Gulfstream in her most recent; she was off the board in her career debut back in January but she had some traffic trouble and that proved to be a key race, as she was one of three to return to win their next starts. REPATRIATED GEM adds blinkers for her 2nd start off the layoff and she may find herself more forwardly placed in this one after she was caught too far off the pace last time in a race that was short on speed; reunited with jockey Joe Bravo, a 13-time leading rider at Monmouth. SEEKING REVENGE another with room to improve after she was pace-compromised in her most recent; she earned a career-best Beyer figure despite running against the race flow in that one and it should be noted that she was in against males in her first start off the long break two back.

SECOND RACE

KRISTI’S COPILOT came up empty in the lane as the favorite when last seen, back in April, where a plethora of speed forced him to rate off the pace in a race run over a sloppy track, and neither of those two factors worked to his benefit, as he is at his best when on the lead, and when on a dry strip; expecting him to be put in the game immediately by Monmouth’s 2019 leading rider, Paco Lopez, as the lack of obvious pace in this race makes his tactical speed especially advantageous. EIGHTS AND ACES is another Oaklawn shipper, and that’s a meet that has produced a great deal of winners around the country since closing day back in early May; this gelding is wide but he has the speed to get position and should be able to work out a forward trip, an edge if the race flow develops as expected. SANAVI is a little dicey on the big class drop off the layoff but his back Beyers are too good to ignore; also certainly worth noting trainer Mary Pattershall’s record with horses off this type of layoff (46%).

THIRD RACE

DOUBLE CHUBBLE cuts back to a sprint in his first start off the four-month layoff and figures to be well positioned off the expected speeds in this race,

drawn to his inside and out; trainer Michael Moore, Parx-based since he started training in 2013 but based in Oceanport this summer, told Monmouth PR Director Tom Luicci, “The biggest reason I came here is because I have some good Jersey-breds,” and this gelding does have Beyers that put him in the thick of this statebred allowance sprint. SHIELD OF FAITH is one of the likely speeds, and though he’s been away since September that most recent breeze was solid, indicating he’s ready for trainer Glenn Thompson; dangerous if able to get clear of HIS PAL and WALLERCITO easily enough. IRISH MEADOW would appreciate a contested pace up front; another making his seasonal debut but sporting a sharp recent work.

FOURTH RACE

NO CON TESTA is the first starter out of Testa Rossi, a multiple graded stakes winner who was 2nd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf; trainer Chad Brown, who is also represented here by DUOPOLY, is of course always dangerous with maidens on the turf, and this filly has to be considered a threat by default, though it will be interesting to see how she’s bet in relation to DUOPOLY, who is making her second career start. The latter was off the board in her debut but earned a figure which fits well with this group, and that was a productive race, with the top two finishers both returning to score in their next starts (respective Beyers of 83 and 78); better post today, after she drew post 11 in her first try. SKOL CHANT has had nothing but trouble so far, with various degrees of bad breaks in all of her three starts and then running into traffic trouble two back and then a bit rank last time; even with all that she posted representative figures in her last pair and she certainly has lots of upside today given an alert getaway and a clean trip.

FIFTH RACE

FACTOR IT IN makes his first start since midFebruary in this inaugural Oceanport Centennial and seems to have landed in an ideal spot, as he has proven he’s capable of stalking the pace and making a run in an abbreviated sprint, and there’s plenty of speed to his outside; he was at the top of his game prior to the break in terms of Beyers and if he gets the right set up he should be able to run to those figures, which may well be good enough. MIDTOWNCHARLYBROWN is one of the expected pacesetters and he may, in fact, be best of that group despite the fact that he’s making his seasonal debut; may or may not be completely cranked up for this five-furlong sprint off the bench but he is more than capable if he does run to his best races. LAKI, like the top pick, stands to benefit from the likely race flow, as he should be in a very good spot just behind a hotly contested pace; another returning from a layoff but he has run very well when coming off the bench in the past.

SIXTH RACE

CRAFTY LASS might be the main speed in this sprint. She gave way after dueling for the lead from the start in her debut at Gulfstream but if she is able to shake loose and back down the fractions a bit she certainly has license to steal this; cut back in distance to six furlongs also figures to work to her benefit. DYNAPOWER may be the one to fear in the lane; she rallied nicely to come up just short in her debut, at 5 1/2 furlongs, and while she was no threat in her last try she had little chance to rally in that paceless sprint, and should very much be expected to improve today given a better set up. TRAPPED N MY MIND has had her chances (10) but they were all against better than what she meets here, and the Beyer she has posted have been very steady, and fit well with this group; clearly a threat on the class drop and the strength of those figures but she may be at a disadvantage in terms of pace if the top pick does in fact get clear and is able to set a controlled pace.